Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/6/2022 at 2:19 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Giving me 6”?   Is there sleet mixed in there?

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Anything back here?

[dendrite]

  On 2/6/2022 at 2:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Anything back here?

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A consolation flake.

[PhineasC]

Is the HRRR at 48 like the GFS at 384 and NAM at 84? Looks great but…

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/6/2022 at 2:25 PM, dendrite said:

A consolation flake.

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[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/6/2022 at 2:22 PM, wx2fish said:

Nam is really disjointed, never consolidates like the hrrr. Pretty meh until Maine 

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Yeah most guidance is a disjointed mess which probably means this is mostly a non-event until you get to Maine. Could be some marginal advisory snows from N ORH into interior NH but the disjointed look sucks…gonna want to trend it into more of a closed circulation aloft to make this more interesting. 
 

 

[dendrite]

  On 2/6/2022 at 2:28 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

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Hrrr had maybe a coating. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/6/2022 at 2:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Anything back here?

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Take it for what it’s worth.  An inch?

 

[PhineasC]

NAM still paints a 6” or so snowfall for here. Kicks off some upslope it seems. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/6/2022 at 2:44 PM, PhineasC said:

NAM still paints a 6” or so snowfall for here. Kicks off some upslope it seems. 

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Decent event there. This one may target where @jculliganlives.

[powderfreak]

  On 2/6/2022 at 2:44 PM, PhineasC said:

NAM still paints a 6” or so snowfall for here. Kicks off some upslope it seems. 

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I'm still not sure I buy it but Waterville on Tuesday might line up nicely if it comes through with that QPF just south of the Presidentials.  Though might be a bit too far west?

[NW_of_GYX]

  On 2/6/2022 at 2:48 PM, powderfreak said:

I'm still not sure I buy it but Waterville on Tuesday might line up nicely if it comes through with that QPF just south of the Presidentials.  Though might be a bit too far west?

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Gonna be there for an industry event Tuesday. Will be hard to leave 4-6” here if that’s the way it works out though. That’ll send this stretch into memorable status for here. Shoot if we end up with what some models are advertising here I may just not bother with Waterville at all. 

[PhineasC]

  On 2/6/2022 at 2:48 PM, powderfreak said:

I'm still not sure I buy it but Waterville on Tuesday might line up nicely if it comes through with that QPF just south of the Presidentials.  Though might be a bit too far west?

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I’m just planning for a refresher here. NAM is overdone most likely, but HRRR looked tasty too. Very fragile setup, it’ll keep shifting around. I have a hot hand last few weeks so why not expect more snow?   

[PhineasC]

  On 2/6/2022 at 2:47 PM, CoastalWx said:

Decent event there. This one may target where @jculliganlives.

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Been a decent winter for the eastern upslopes. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/6/2022 at 2:59 PM, NW_of_GYX said:

Gonna be there for an industry event Tuesday. Will be hard to leave 4-6” here if that’s the way it works out though. That’ll send this stretch into memorable status for here. Shoot if we end up with what some models are advertising here I may just not bother with Waterville at all. 

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Interior SouthWestern Maine is in a good spot for this one. I could see Shawnee being close to the jackpot. 

[OceanStWx]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:04 PM, ORH_wxman said:

T CT Interior SouthWestern Maine is in a good spot for this one. I could see Shawnee being close to the jackpot. 

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That's real close around GYX. It's a marginal sounding, but hanging around that magic 1000 ft depth of warm air that can be overcome if rates are heavy enough.

[NW_of_GYX]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:04 PM, ORH_wxman said:

T CT Interior SouthWestern Maine is in a good spot for this one. I could see Shawnee being close to the jackpot. 

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That would great. This has been a mini weenie spot this winter since we hit on some of the coastals that fringed Conway, bethel and the eastern whites and Mahoosucs.

[CoastalWx]

It’s puke worthy to see a track like that and rain into the interior. 

[Professional Lurker]

  On 2/5/2022 at 4:20 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

N ORH is prob close.  

Nope.

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[WxWatcher007]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:10 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s puke worthy to see a track like that and rain into the interior. 

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Winter 2021-22 in a nutshell for many.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:10 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s puke worthy to see a track like that and rain into the interior. 

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It’s kind of a faux sfc track though because the upper air is way west…we get this weird IVT out ahead and the flow at 925/850 is due south. The storm might as well be over ABE. By the time the thing consolidates it’s way northeast of us. Just another turd setup really that masquerades as something that “should” look good for us. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:16 PM, Professional Lurker said:

Nope.

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Close to being in bad shape I mean. 
29” when I avg 72-75. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s kind of a faux sfc track though because the upper air is way west…we get this weird IVT out ahead and the flow at 925/850 is due south. The storm might as well be over ABE. By the time the thing consolidates it’s way northeast of us. Just another turd setup really that masquerades as something that “should” look good for us. 

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Oh I know, that WAA kills us. But even as it wraps, there’s like no cold to feed in LOL. 

[ineedsnow]

ICON is 33 and rain here gets the  Berks and NH pretty good though

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:10 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s puke worthy to see a track like that and rain into the interior. 

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Right, nearly .50 QPF down here and a coating. Blows.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

…and it’s balls ass cold right now too. Weeeeeeeeeee

[Damage In Tolland]

Might be an icing event with elevation in spots 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:26 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Might be an icing event with elevation in spots 

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This could actually be one of those events where some ice happens in lower spots because the in-situ CAD would be extremely shallow. Like ORH could be 34F and raining while ORE or FIT is 29F and ZR. 

[Professional Lurker]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:18 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Close to being in bad shape I mean. 
29” when I avg 72-75. 

I haven't measured this year, but I'd guess that I've got 15" or less season to date. I'd also guess I average 60-65.



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[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:40 PM, Professional Lurker said:

I haven't measured this year, but I'd guess that I've got 15" or less season to date. I'd also guess I average 60-65.



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That is horrendous for there. How much did you get in 2015-16? That was another historically bad year in NW MA. 

[Professional Lurker]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:44 PM, ORH_wxman said:

That is horrendous for there. How much did you get in 2015-16? That was another historically bad year in NW MA. 

Honestly don't remember, sorry.

The silver lining has been constant snow cover in my yard. I'm definitely a pack guy, and realize that typically only a grinch storm will prevent my yard from being snow-covered from late Dec to March.

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