Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/5/2022 at 8:29 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

We need a misery thread for you people. 18z NAM looks good so far.

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not for here 12z was better

[mreaves]

  On 2/5/2022 at 7:45 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Lol shit I thought it was the 14th. Cancel that reference my first date is 15th to 18th but then again the 21st is looking good on GEFS

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Valentine’s Day. I know there is PDI & PDII so I, for one, would love to add a VDII to 2007’s VDI. 

[Chrisrotary12]

  On 2/5/2022 at 8:33 PM, MaineJayhawk said:

 

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I know. But no one actually posts there. Instead they clog up every legitimate thread with "woe is me" posts and crap.

[SJonesWX]

  On 2/5/2022 at 2:58 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d be ok with that 

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you’d be ok with 2-4 while Ray gets a foot, like that map shows? Color me skeptical

[ineedsnow]

alot of rain for eastern areas would need the low to deepen more and be west of that to get anything good for the western peeps

[Chrisrotary12]

  On 2/5/2022 at 8:34 PM, ineedsnow said:

not for here 12z was better

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Still has the system. That's all that matters at this point.

[MaineJayhawk]

Nice run for NE MA up through the Maine coast.  I'd be happy with a Euro/NAM blend.  Euro was a tad too warm for my location

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/5/2022 at 8:37 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Still has the system. That's all that matters at this point.

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only 2 days away its not in the long range meh

[wx2fish]

Not as prolific as 12z, but still warning snows in NE MA/SE NH and into ME. Hopefully the 18z gfs shows a little more life. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

4” on the Euro, 6” on the NAM for MBY 

Lets split the difference and call it a day

[moneypitmike]

  On 2/5/2022 at 8:37 PM, ineedsnow said:

only 2 days away its not in the long range meh

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8 runs of the NAM is long range.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/5/2022 at 8:37 PM, ineedsnow said:

only 2 days away its not in the long range meh

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Only 6 hrs away from 0Z HRRR starts to show precip in New England 

[dendrite]

Goofus is still not thrilled.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/5/2022 at 9:55 PM, dendrite said:

Goofus is still not thrilled.

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It’s kind of a putrid system on a lot of these runs. Mostly the IVT out ahead of it…a few runs like some of those NAM solutions are a little more real…those are what it will take I think for more than 3-4” of paste…maybe a few spots could try and pull 6” in the IVT scenario but they would prob be isolated. 
 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/5/2022 at 10:31 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s kind of a putrid system on a lot of these runs. Mostly the IVT out ahead of it…a few runs like some of those NAM solutions are a little more real…those are what it will take I think for more than 3-4” of paste…maybe a few spots could try and pull 6” in the IVT scenario but they would prob be isolated. 
 

 

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Yeah ... looks like the interest might be shifting more E-CNE and Maine ... But, the 00z could bring it back ...etc... 

Folks should keep in mind that weak systems of this nature could actually snow pretty dense because we mustn't neglect where they are originating.  It's congealing out of that deep subtropical easterly fetch ENE of Florida, and then gets captured by a weak N/stream...  It's really a phasing of weak mechanics ... but then captured, it's likely to be pwat wealthy.  

It sucks that this is prime time seasonal snow storm and this is what we got to show for it - it's all we got.

Not the thread for it but the Valentine's Day system is again presented on the 18z GFS.   I bothered to check the ens means and 2/3rd carry the membership on that, and considering the numerical telecon [ appear to be ] bringing a new +PNA surge over the horizon of D10, well...  we both know it's a hemispheric look.   It's sucks when the Euro does this prematurely though, because one cannot start a thread for that without those images getting in the way lol.

[Angus]

had a great day skate skiing in Carlisle today - this whole area has 4" of frozen cement with a dusting on top - great surface for skate skiing. Hoping this weather system doesn't mess it up. I'm playing catch up with my xc skiing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/5/2022 at 6:59 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Really didn't need the dig but thanks. You average about the same as I have since 2000. Kevin's probably 68 to 70 since 2000. My totals for 18/19 19/20 20/21

40.2

25.2 

51

 

It's all in your head dude.

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Not sure what you are smoking....I average in the low 60's, and Kev is around 60". I def average more than you do.

You are wrong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/5/2022 at 7:14 PM, Ginx snewx said:

He got smoked last Dec while south of the Pike got porked. Its all about the Jack. Little events are what make averages and that is what we are comparing. 

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You are just making things up....I got 11" in the Dec 2020 event....that death band was well north of me, Brian to Albany to BGM got it. Anyway, you are shifting the argument....my whole point was that I have not sniffed AVERAGE SEASONAL snowfall in the past 4 years.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 2/5/2022 at 11:34 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure what you are smoking....I average in the low 60's, and Kev is around 60". I def average more than you do.

You are wrong.

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It’s been bad in NE MA and NW MA, I don’t know how else to explain it to people? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/5/2022 at 7:06 PM, ORH_wxman said:

If you go by just since 2000, Ray prob averages over 70”…so his deficit would look even worse the last 4 years. He was using long term climo numbers. 

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  On 2/5/2022 at 7:12 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The numbers presented without context may not seem so bad, but it does seem like his area has gotten porked on the larger scale events. All you have to do is go back and look at the threads. In an overall large scale setup, he does seem to find himself in a relative min more often than not.

He might make some of it up on the margins, as far as smaller events or holding on to snow longer before rain etc etc, but the large scale point is real.

Minus last weekend, this also hasn’t been a banner half decade for most of eastern New England 

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  On 2/5/2022 at 7:31 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Nitpicking, but can’t really use percentages since he has a different average than you. Gotta use standard dev. But anyways, you had an epic ratter but also a season near your average in 2018-2019. 
 

Don’t really want to derail this thread any further though. I agree with the larger point that Ray’s area isn’t egregiously unique in the past 4 years…maybe just somewhat. I’ll be western MA gives him a run too. 

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Yea, that is fair.....all I was saying is that I have had the worst luck regionally the past 4 seasons....nothing utterly obscene. He asks for the data, I present it, and he ignore it and talks past it.

[Damage In Tolland]

Beer.. a lot 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/5/2022 at 11:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are just making things up....I got 11" in the Dec 2020 event....that death band was well north of me, Brian to Albany to BGM got it. Anyway, you are shifting the argument....my whole point was that I have not sniffed AVERAGE SEASONAL snowfall in the past 4 years.

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Well you shifted because you said you had it worse regionally than any one else. 3 years as this year isn't over Feb 5th. I put up empirical numbers and yes my average since 2000 is 62. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 2/5/2022 at 11:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Beer.. a lot 

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On it! 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/5/2022 at 5:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Find an area worse off than I am over the past 4 years...good luck.

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  On 2/5/2022 at 6:59 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Really didn't need the dig but thanks. You average about the same as I have since 2000. Kevin's probably 68 to 70 since 2000. My totals for 18/19 19/20 20/21

40.2

25.2 

51

 

It's all in your head dude.

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  On 2/5/2022 at 7:13 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Last 3 years using since 2000 average.  Perception is different than empirical data.

142/210 Ray 67%

126/ 195 me 64%

 

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  On 2/5/2022 at 11:42 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Yea, that is fair.....all I was saying is that I have had the worst luck regionally the past 4 seasons....nothing utterly obscene. He asks for the data, I present it, and he ignore it and talks past it.

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I didn't ignore anything I put up numbers worse than you. You want us all to pity you when in fact we all had low numbers 18 to 21 relative to average.

[wx2fish]

  On 2/5/2022 at 9:55 PM, dendrite said:

Goofus is still not thrilled.

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18z euro is chicken approved. Definitely a tenuous setup, but maybe a narrow can grab a decent event. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/5/2022 at 11:56 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Well you shifted because you said you had it worse regionally than any one else. 3 years as this year isn't over Feb 5th. I put up empirical numbers and yes my average since 2000 is 62. 

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Right....where is the shift again? I said the past 4 seasons, which obviously season to date. If it will make you feel any better, I'll revisit this in April.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/6/2022 at 12:12 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....where is the shift again? I said the past 4 seasons, which obviously season to date. If it will make you feel any better, I'll revisit this in April.

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I don't give a hoot toot. You are obviously distraught and emotionally traumatized. Take solace you are not alone the last (4) years ask Hippy. 

[PhineasC]

Euro came back west a little. Just need 0.4-0.6 liquid on east flow and I can turn that into a 6-10 storm. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/6/2022 at 12:15 AM, Ginx snewx said:

I don't give a hoot toot. You are obviously distraught and emotionally traumatized. Take solace you are not alone the last (4) years ask Hippy. 

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I simply presenting the requested empirical data....you seemed a bit disoriented.  You presented totals lowers than mine from areas that average LESS.....I was ready to call in a mental status test.  

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/6/2022 at 12:17 AM, PhineasC said:

Euro came back west a little. Just need 0.4-0.6 liquid on east flow and I can turn that into a 6-10 storm. 

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Hide the chickens and send the white coats for others