Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Boys,  this one may sneak up on a lot of people, bit more qpf to come hour 84

12Z NAM  10:1

Sneak ?!

....this is starting to piss me off man

lol, not you - hahaha...  just in general.  damn it -

I mean, this may not happen...   but people can't seem to read this without interpreting through an asshole filter.  

Everything I've said about this 'event' is f'ing clad true so for. I am not making this shit up. I do not have ambition - I am merely a fascinating miss-placed middle aged Met with no other outlet to vent my aspirations in this field, and you know what... ?  People can bite me.

And by the way... I AM WRONG ALL THE TIME.  

Rant over -  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Maybe the worm has turned a bit for the N of the Pike folk

It is the NAM though. But good to see some other support and in close enough range

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sneak ?!

....this is starting to piss me off man

lol, not you - hahaha...  just in general.  damn it -

I mean, this may not happen...   but people can't seem to read this without interpreting through an asshole filter.  

Everything I've said about this 'event' is f'ing clad true so for. I am not making this shit up. I do not have ambition - I am fascinating miss-placed middle aged Meteorologist with no other outlet to vent my aspirations in this field, and you know what... ?  People can bite me.

And by the way... I AM WRONG ALL THE TIME.  

Rant over -  

If you somehow turn this into a nice snowstorm it'll be your biggest coup yet.

[Ginx snewx]

Nice

[PhineasC]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Maybe the worm has turned a bit for the N of the Pike folk

It is the NAM though. But good to see some other support and in close enough range

Eventually climo asserts itself, I think.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Tip needs a gummie this morning.   Lol.    Once again, he has been playing a golden hand

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Eventually climo asserts itself, I think.

Well, eventually it is May…

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

12z NAM gives me more liquid for this thing than the models had here for the BOS blizzard event.

Waking up from a 17 inch hangover to see another foot plus in a couple of days for your win.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sneak ?!

....this is starting to piss me off man

lol, not you - hahaha...  just in general.  damn it -

I mean, this may not happen...   but people can't seem to read this without interpreting through an asshole filter.  

Everything I've said about this 'event' is f'ing clad true so for. I am not making this shit up. I do not have ambition - I am merely a fascinating miss-placed middle aged Met with no other outlet to vent my aspirations in this field, and you know what... ?  People can bite me.

And by the way... I AM WRONG ALL THE TIME.  

Rant over -  

Edibles are legal in Mass. Maybe wake and bake is a good idea for you. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Had no idea we had so many druggies in our subforum.

Lets get a couple more pumps and bumps south over the next 24 hours so this snows down to the coast 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, PhineasC said:

If you somehow turn this into a nice snowstorm it'll be your biggest coup yet.

Honestly ...I don't expect that to happen.   Ha!

If it turns into a "nice snowstorm," that would be a bit like accidentally inventing nitroglycerine.  

I mean there may be some subjectivity ... duh, in how we define adjectives like "nice," when using them to describe snow. And then stapling other adjectives like "storm" on the end of it...  I really meant 'minor' and/or 'middling'   - can someone PLEASE demonstrate this is getting across ? Anyway, I'm not sure these reconcile the former?

I have to be fair, if ORH - CON-BGR axis pasted for > 6"  ... that's not what I had in mind.  I thought that might be more the ceiling for Taunton to Logan with metro west skimmed, up through PSM-PWM ... 

But, if it wants to evolve to more... I would say people should also pay attention to details when < 108 hours out, and the 00z EPS' 24 -hour d(hgts) through 90W digs some 6 dm straight up and down the trough.  That's amount of amplitude increase is not as paramount as the move its self - maybe..

toggle between these if on a PC/Mac...not sure what you can do on your phones:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022020400&fh=96&dpdt=&mc=&r=nh&p=500h_anom&m=eps

vs

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022020400&fh=96&dpdt=&mc=&r=nh&p=500h_anom&m=eps

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Definitely a better trend. Several OP runs now give ORH county over to Ray’s hood several inches. 
 

06z euro looks a little warm for that. Does get interior NH into ME with warning snows though. 

Wait for it.....

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sneak ?!

....this is starting to piss me off man

lol, not you - hahaha...  just in general.  damn it -

I mean, this may not happen...   but people can't seem to read this without interpreting through an asshole filter.  

Everything I've said about this 'event' is f'ing clad true so for. I am not making this shit up. I do not have ambition - I am merely a fascinating miss-placed middle aged Met with no other outlet to vent my aspirations in this field, and you know what... ?  People can bite me.

And by the way... I AM WRONG ALL THE TIME.  

Rant over -  

What a melt.....someone Finish Tip.

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

MLK 2010 redux?

I don't remember that one ?   ...I guess I can NCEP library that - is it an analog ?

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wait for it.....

One of these eventually has to work out lol.

[tavwtby]

33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice

I have a good feeling about this one, of course I did on the 29th too, for mby anyway

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Edibles are legal in Mass. Maybe wake and bake is a good idea for you. 

Heh... I think all private rec forms are legal use now?   In Mass anywho.

I was told by an off-duty officer that the same rules apply to DUI law, however... Maybe that will get finer tuned/codified, but it "seems" when the vote flipped the script, the systemic couching in was a first sorta 'guess' management tool.  Anyway, I guess that makes sense? 

I don't know - I can't use Marry Jane. I tried it in my youth... Let's just leave it at some unsettling reaction. I'm not thrilled to use it because of that trauma.   I am, however, thrilled that it is legal now - how many countless lives were ruined by what amounts (in my mind) to be puritanical heritage - Americana does have perhaps too many roots in early colonialism.  Obviously, there's a whole sociological babble that is not appropriate to this thread ( hahaha), but that just being illegal was always suspect to me.  I can't use it, personally. But I've never been around a marijuana fueled rage, or addict... and it has far to many benefits if used in moderation like anything else.   

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't remember that one ?   ...I guess I can NCEP library that - is it an analog ?

I don’t think it’s a direct CIPS analog but MLK 2010 was a really marginal airmass that hit the pike/495 belt pretty good with 5-10” of paste with mostly rain elsewhere south and east. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think it’s a direct CIPS analog but MLK 2010 was a really marginal airmass that hit the pike/495 belt pretty good with 5-10” of paste with mostly rain elsewhere south and east. 

Toss 

[ineedsnow]

GFS is meh

[ineedsnow]

looks like it chased convection shocking

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Toss 

Why? The distribution could be similar. 900-950mb is going to be an issue down south. You might be far enough north but it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s mostly N of pike too. But we’ll see. It’s trended a little bit cooler so far at 12z. 

[CoastalWx]

Gfs is close though. Wouldn’t take much.

[ineedsnow]

actually did make a jump from 0z though we interior people need this one

[radarman]

Poor Berks and S Greens too far west for the biggie, too far S yesterday.  For all the griping that goes on, nobody is further BN and it's probably not close.  Maybe this potential torched BL event will start to turn the tide.

[HinghamBoss]

Would love one of these “last minute” surprise storms to break our way.  Nice to mix in with the ones we track for 10 days.

[ineedsnow]

GEFS east

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Probably won’t amount to anything down here. Feeling quite melty today.

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, radarman said:

Poor Berks and S Greens too far west for the biggie, too far S yesterday.  For all the griping that goes on, nobody is further BN and it's probably not close.  Maybe this potential torched BL event will start to turn the tide.

N ORH is prob close.  

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why? The distribution could be similar. 900-950mb is going to be an issue down south. You might be far enough north but it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s mostly N of pike too. But we’ll see. It’s trended a little bit cooler so far at 12z. 

Because that storm was the biggest melt I’ve ever had. I’ll never forget it