Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why is that not a good overall solution for interior SNE? Even south of Worcester ? I know it’s not cold, but that would seem just cold enough 

See my post above. Will need rates and offshore winds I believe. Very marginal airmass and forcing is best to our north.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why is that not a good overall solution for interior SNE? Even south of Worcester ? I know it’s not cold, but that would seem just cold enough 

Because the flow ahead of it warms us up aloft. Even you. You’ll need to go really intensify as it moves east and it might not do that until it gets past our latitude. Still time.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Really? those guys haven’t even shoveled their driveway’s yet up there and are tracking another potential foot… I’m starting to lose patience with this season down here. 

[WinterWolf]

If this can develop a bit earlier and a tad closer/more properly, I think the atmosphere would definitely support snow especially inland. But we gotta get it to trend into doing that.  We need a break here for heaven sakes…

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

If this can develop a bit earlier and a tad closer/more properly, I think the atmosphere would definitely support snow especially inland. But we gotta get it to trend into doing that.  We need a break here for heaven sakes…

Yeah man, I’m slowly coming into your camp. Frustration is building.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Yeah man, I’m slowly coming into your camp. Frustration is building.

Absolutely. I mean dam already.  You’d think  we’d get something to work out for us.  Jeez.  C’mon baby let’s see you pop a lil earlier for us….

[Great Snow 1717]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You know it's bad when I lose interest in staying up for models. This season blows just like last three did.

It's been the equivalent of the Golden Sombrero in baseball...0-4 with 4 K's..

[Chrisrotary12]

06z NAM looks like a best case scenario right now.

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why is that not a good overall solution for interior SNE? Even south of Worcester ? I know it’s not cold, but that would seem just cold enough 

We need the closer tracks because most of the precip actually falls out ahead of the low. So by the time the low makes it up here the forcing is northeast except for the stronger/closer lows which might CCB us with snow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Op runs clip the Cape with... rain? No clue what you guys are looking at here.

It hasn't been very convincing, no ... LOL - maybe replace 'convincing' with 'representative' as in ... at all.

Firstly,  minor to middling event, primarily for E and SE regions.  

That's not really changed.  Admittedly, it would help if this thing would congeal a bit more.  The 00z GGEM seems to like the event, as did the Euro, but the latter really is on the minoring side.   You know, honestly, when I wrote that I wasn't even thinking in Ayer, MA ( situated NNE of Worcester by 25 mi).   Either way, I was careful to point out the former bold content/aspects...

Three points:

- Some 'dependency' for this in that the field actually is okay for more amplitude. Often enough, when that canvas is observed, it is proven worthwhile to pay attention. Events will emerge given time.  

- If an event can condense out of the ether ..heh, it would be doing so in a marginal atmosphere, prior to March 1.  That's not a slam dunk for rain, particularly when hydrostatic heights are at or < 540 dm range.  The 06z NAM version shows how intensifying QPF through that thermal plumb immediately flips the ptype.  I think the problem on guidance to this point, is that it's been too light - ... it may in fact go down that way.   The top line in the thread also said, "Low confidence"  

- It was also made clear that some purpose for this thread's creation is because there's not much else going on ... The other option is 10 days of doldrums.  I almost wonder if folks were not clear that the latter is the case, because there's seems to be an entitlement attitude to a steady diet of inspiring snow drama.  Haha... in other words, the general reader needs to get with reality that this is a dearth period without this, and consider it a blessing really. 

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's so close down in SNE. I was thinking about what you and Scott were talking about with lower level 925 being colder than depicted. Let's hope modeling is off on thermals a bit. Positioning argues for a nice little event. Even a bit of east flow. Have to watch closely 

Yeah some of the other guidance actually hits 495 west into ORH region pretty good. So hopefully models trend more toward that today. 

[wxeyeNH]

We finally have a good pack up here.  15" or so.  Made up of several storms, some with sleet and glaciated layers.  This pack is durable.  Another 3-6" up here would barely be noticeable.  Time to roof rake today.  1" of sleet mixed in with snow.  Not fun

Hope it trends better for SNE.  You are welcomed for this one

[wx2fish]

Nam is definitely interesting. 

[CoastalWx]

What a nuke for nrn MA into NH. 

[ORH_wxman]

Wow. 495 N and W. 

[ORH_wxman]

MLK 2010 redux?

[MaineJayhawk]

Congrats Pit2

[wxeyeNH]

Boys,  this one may sneak up on a lot of people, bit more qpf to come hour 84

12Z NAM  10:1

[CoastalWx]

Man if we could shake the initial inv trough a bit that’s a paste Job near BOS. Probably a hard task, but wow impressive solution. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

MLK 2010 redux?

Hate to see it.

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Ray.

[PhineasC]

12z NAM gives me more liquid for this thing than the models had here for the BOS blizzard event.

[mreaves]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Congrats Ray.

Ray has made peace with the winter and is trying to spend some quality time with his family who as just returned after months away and you guys just won’t let him go. Just when he thought he was out, you drag him back in. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man if we could shake the initial inv trough a bit that’s a paste Job near BOS. Probably a hard task, but wow impressive solution. 

Yeah it lessened the IVT a bit that run which helped. 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Boys,  this one may sneak up on a lot of people, bit more qpf to come hour 84

12Z NAM  10:1

I mean technically this was run out of the NWS' basement...

[PhineasC]

I think the crew that is in the best snows on this run are the most jaded here right now, though. I'm sure they are sitting back just laughing and expecting this to trend to shit for them.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Ray revenge storm. This looks like dung south of the pike no matter how you slice it. Hopefully someone gets it good 

[NorEastermass128]

Hope that pans out. NAM hitting the spots that have been in a relative screw zone of late. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I think the crew that is in the best snows on this run are the most jaded here right now, though. I'm sure they are sitting back just laughing and expecting this to trend to shit for them.

I wouldn’t expect much anywhere yet but it’s definitely starting to trend better which is a good sign (as opposed to being great at day 4-5 and trending worse)….and we’re less than 3 days out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Boys,  this one may sneak up on a lot of people, bit more qpf to come hour 84

12Z NAM  10:1

I’d be ok with that