Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/4/2022 at 11:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully like 2012

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I would sign now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I still feel like early March will have something, though. 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS still not really interested in this. 

[PhineasC]

  On 2/4/2022 at 9:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I actually have a good feeling on this one. Think it has legs. And not just for elevations. 

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Needs to start showing up on the op runs of the varsity models. Not far away at all. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/4/2022 at 11:10 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GFS still not really interested in this. 

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After it’s performance on this storm .. good 

[ineedsnow]

18z GEFS look better a couple sweet looking members 

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/4/2022 at 11:10 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GFS still not really interested in this. 

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GEFS kind of are

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/4/2022 at 11:13 PM, ineedsnow said:

GEFS kind of are

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Yeah nice hits interspersed . I’m all into this one. We lost the one next weekend . At least on 12z stuff 

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/4/2022 at 11:30 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah nice hits interspersed . I’m all into this one. We lost the one next weekend . At least on 12z stuff 

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18z has a mod storm Friday

[MJO812]

Gefs

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/4/2022 at 11:48 PM, MJO812 said:

Gefs

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Someone may come in and say those are Rainers except for ORH county north.. but that’s a solid look in general 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/5/2022 at 12:13 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Someone may come in and say those are Rainers except for ORH county north.. but that’s a solid look in general 

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Temps are cold enough on GEFS

[CoastalWx]

Euro trying. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/5/2022 at 12:14 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Temps are cold enough on GEFS

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Yup . But.. gfs and GEFS for today . Yikes 

[Connecticut Appleman]

Hopefully something breaks right otherwise this is pretty sums up this winter.  It would be nice to be a short fuse event - the long fuse ones usually disappoint.

[ma blizzard]

  On 2/5/2022 at 12:22 AM, Connecticut Appleman said:

Hopefully something breaks right otherwise this is pretty sums up this winter.  It would be nice to be a short fuse event - the long fuse ones usually disappoint.

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when was the last time this happened? seems like its been awhile .. maybe we are due? 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/5/2022 at 12:20 AM, CoastalWx said:

Euro trying. 

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I wonder what would happen if we saw a few more frames. It had that initial lead pulse of precip but the main show is still well south and that looked promising because it could form a proper midlevel circulation and draw the colder air back in via CCB. 

[ineedsnow]

Euro getting closer I think after 90 it would have went east     but it was west of 12z for sure

[ineedsnow]

curious to see if the EPS goes west    

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/5/2022 at 12:25 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I wonder what would happen if we saw a few more frames. It had that initial lead pulse of precip but the main show is still well south and that looked promising because it could form a proper midlevel circulation and draw the colder air back in via CCB. 

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Was thinking the same. Such a borderline airmass but winds were North and you could see even at 925 over NJ it was cooling.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/5/2022 at 12:34 AM, CoastalWx said:

Was thinking the same. Such a borderline airmass but winds were North and you could see even at 925 over NJ it was cooling.

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You and your wind direction lol. Only from a coastal guy 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Kiss of death is when you hear guidance is "trying".

[ORH_wxman]

EPS didn’t look bad

 

[PhineasC]

  On 2/5/2022 at 12:59 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kiss of death is when you hear guidance is "trying".

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I don't get this one. Seems kinda lame and a long shot.

EPS looks to have drifted back east to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/5/2022 at 1:07 AM, ORH_wxman said:

EPS didn’t look bad

 

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Maybe I can watch the snow fly 12 miles to my east again before it rains again mid month .

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/5/2022 at 1:11 AM, PhineasC said:

I don't get this one. Seems kinda lame and a long shot.

EPS looks to have drifted back east to me.

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Right, but especially for you.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/5/2022 at 1:11 AM, PhineasC said:

I don't get this one. Seems kinda lame and a long shot.

EPS looks to have drifted back east to me.

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Came well west at 18z

[PhineasC]

  On 2/5/2022 at 1:47 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Came well west at 18z

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Cluster tightened up towards the west, you are right now that I look again. 

[ineedsnow]

I was planning on going to bed early now I have to stay up for the 0z models looks like ill be sleeping in tomorrow 

[JC-CT]

  On 2/4/2022 at 7:12 PM, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has a lot of good-looking members....but most of these are rain outside of ORH county into CNE/NNE. The low levels are trash.

 

 

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This is why it's hard to care about this one. Would need to create its own cold air, and it needs so much work to become that level of storm.