Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.

[Typhoon Tip]

Low but growing confidence?

I'll keep this comparatively brief ( yeah right LOL ) as there's been some awareness already.  So overnight, the various techniques have begun what think will be an eventual better coalescing around a "pass-time potential."  I say that in quotes because for the time being, this doesn't appear to offer much more than what that suggest.  A reason to pass the time... heh. But it appears credible enough. I'll be happy to change titling and or commit this to the graveyard, which ever it eventually needs.

I'd stress minor to middling affects from this for now.   It is noted there are some individual members of the GEFs and GEPs that are situating 970's mb lows across the outer Cape waters. Those, however, appear to be exceptions to a mean that is too torpid by comparison to take them very seriously. It could evolve more... yup - but for now, here are the means (courtesy of Tropical Tidbits):

A little deeper philosophy if interested...  This period, D5 -12 has been interesting for me since the blizzard because there has been a cross-guidance ensemble tendency to 'relax' the 500 mb non-hydrostatic height medium across the hemisphere's mid latitudes.  Typically when this happens and moving the static quo from a cold regime into a relaxed one, that can trigger synoptic events.  Today's event is really the leading edge of a cold reload, but for several days we may end up with hydrostatic height gradients, amid a less destructively fast non-hydrostatic medium.  As I've also mentioned ... there just been one problem.  The operational versions haven't been too keen on delivering S/W mechanics through that domain. Like wasting it...ugh.  This has been true among the members of the different ensembles, too.  I've been checking, daily.  Nada.   Then, overnight, this above. I'm aware that the EPS looks like shit there, but that's a substantial improvement over the previous 24-hour fix from the 00z/03

Because the synoptic super structure like the less larger --> short wave interference ( which is inherent to slowing the field ...), then this materializes, that succession of circumstance sort of gives this some room for consideration in my mind.  Hints gathering toward a notion and correction vectoring etc..

So, we'll see where it goes.  It is D5, and ... operational runs - in theory.. - would become more useful to this soon.  The GGEM is the most emphatic of thus far - I know ...I know.  But I was looking at the individual GEF members and it is interesting that 2/3rd fo them are more robust than the operational version.  Just wild first guess:  the marginal aspect of the thermodynamics appear just cool enough to me, that if this gets more robust ... more directly impacts the area, it would likely become a lower ratio snow.

Yes I'm aware there a vague signal perhaps materializing toward mid month separate matter.  

 

[ORH_wxman]

06z EPS was a lot more interested than 00z

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS was a lot more interested than 00z

 

 

Ah.. thanks!

[Typhoon Tip]

OH man ... where have we seen this before -

... Seems to be a recurrent theme here where the western ridge ..sort of bumped slightly west of idealized/climo ... , causes the flow to tend to split as it descends over the Rockies. That's okay, "if" the southern aspect can somewhat get booted E ( I've annotated that question..).  But the models are dragging their feet wrt to that. 

This was an issue leading the blizzard wrt phase proficiency.  It would appear similarly circumstantial - albeit a less magnitude version - with this D5.   It's really quite similar.  If the ridge in the west - I feel - were to amp it would help conduct these features into a better phasing...

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM has a little snow for interior....but doesn't pop it quickly enough....hammers DE Maine though.

[PhineasC]

This one seems like more of a stretch than Tip’s usual threads but he is good luck usually. Hopefully we start to see this materialize on more runs than just the goofball CMC. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This one seems like more of a stretch than Tip’s usual threads but he is good luck usually. Hopefully we start to see this materialize on more runs than just the goofball CMC. 

You’re not even done with this one yet.  How you making out there…reach 20 inches yet? 

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie was pretty good for deep interior north of the pike...like N ORH county into NH and Maine.

[PhineasC]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

You’re not even done with this one yet.  How you making out there…reach 20 inches yet? 

Between 14-15. Just light snow now. 16" seems like the final number at the end of the day.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Between 14-15. Just light snow now. 16" seems like the final number at the end of the day.

Nice dump. Good for you. Nothing like a good hit. Still waiting here….maybe end of next week? Or not? Lol.  24.25” on the season to date.  Hoping to reach normal, but got to double that current number to get there. Definitely doable here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS was a lot more interested than 00z

 

 

Lets continue the Methuen Oscillation....the blizzard occurred during the negative mode of the MO, meaning its slipped south....this event is during the +MO, meaning its north....next one will slip south, and nail Taunton again.

Its comical at this point, really....beyond the point of frustration.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well,... the Euro came in okay for a SE/E clip.   Seems to be a modest trend toward more there in that guidance.  Plus with Will's EPS ... 

The GEFs faded though, after looking so encouraging on the 00z.

I wanna emphasize, this is low confidence as was written.  I think the alternative is endless, non-focused meaningless banter and stagnated winter boredom so what the hell - maybe not kill the thread just yet LOL

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lets continue the Methuen Oscillation....the blizzard occurred during the negative mode of the MO, meaning its slipped south....this event is during the +MO, meaning its north....next one will slip south, and nail Taunton again.

Its comical at this point, really....beyond the point of frustration.

Jesus Ray ... 

okay everybody, pay attention there.   That is how we gripe the right way  LOL

[Damage In Tolland]

Surprised no one posted this. Threat is legit 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS has a lot of good-looking members....but most of these are rain outside of ORH county into CNE/NNE. The low levels are trash.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has a lot of good-looking members....but most of these are rain outside of ORH county into CNE/NNE. The low levels are trash.

 

 

Mm... your right of course.  But with hydrostatic heights in the 535 -540 range, this is a candidate for a blue bonnet special -

the problem is, we are not getting to see the QPF depictions for those amped members - I mean are we?  The operational skims by and drills to 987, but it tickling the column.  We need this closer than that, so there's work to be done.

[PhineasC]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has a lot of good-looking members....but most of these are rain outside of ORH county into CNE/NNE. The low levels are trash.

 

 

Nice west cluster there. 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... your right of course.  But with hydrostatic heights in the 535 -540 range, this is a candidate for a blue bonnet special -

the problem is, we are not getting to see the QPF depictions for those amped members - I mean are we?  The operational skims by and drills to 987, but it tickling the column.  We need this closer than that, so there's work to be done.

They don't have the individual member ptype maps out yet, but the mean snowfall has zero inside of 495 or so with a few inches in ORH county and a bit more into interior S NH and ME, so that tells me even the "good" tracks are mostly rain outside of those areas. The caveat though is of course the modeled BL temps and snow algorithms too....sometimes in those blue bombs, models won't pick up on the isothermal nature of the atmosphere below 3000 feet and will try to over-warm the BL.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They don't have the individual member ptype maps out yet, but the mean snowfall has zero inside of 495 or so with a few inches in ORH county and a bit more into interior S NH and ME, so that tells me even the "good" tracks are mostly rain outside of those areas. The caveat though is of course the modeled BL temps and snow algorithms too....sometimes in those blue bombs, models won't pick up on the isothermal nature of the atmosphere below 3000 feet and will try to over-warm the BL.

That's yeah right where I'm heading with that 'blues'  so we'll see.  Looks like a candidate from this range. 

You know I think that April ?23rd? 1987 storm was one that was marginal and over achieved.   I start thinking back on some of those that were like this in the mid range, and then even as they were happening ..the NOWS started flipping to crazy parachutes.  The first of the two back-to-backs in Dec 1996 did that.  I remember the cat paw rain and wet snow forecast go to uniform large aggs with with 4-6" in the Merrimack Valley not really well forecast.   It seems we don't get those kind of positive busts as often anymore - probably hard to sneak one by with a colonoscopy of model probing tech now used cut up coke lines LOL ...

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's yeah right where I'm heading with that 'blues'  so we'll see.  Looks like a candidate from this range. 

You know I think that April 3rd 1987 storm was one that was marginal and over achieved.   I start thinking back on some of those that were like this in the mid range, and then even as they were happening ..the NOWS started flipping to crazy parachutes.  The first of the two back-to-backs in Dec 1996 did that.  I remember a the cat paw rain and wet snow forecast go to uniform large aggs with with 4-6" in the Merrimack Valley not really well forecast.   It seems we don't get those kind of positive busts as often anymore - probably hard to sneak one by with a colonoscopy of model probing tech now used cut up coke lines LOL ...

Yeah the models have gotten a lot better at identifying the marginal boundary layers....but at 3+ days out, it obviously can still be off. The March 7-8, 2013 storm was like that....that's the one where he just got firehosed from the east and slammed 12-24" in mostly a 15-18 hour span (but we were spitting snow showers for 24 hours before that)....model guidance had initially kept trying to warm the BL, though a couple model runs were showing around -1C at 950mb, and then they kept cooling until it was like -5C....obviously that is an extreme example....it can snow at -1C. But the forecasts were very conservative at first....showing very little inside 495 and even only a sloppy 3-6/4-8 for ORH hills.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The Pete B “rain storm” ^^^

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has a lot of good-looking members....but most of these are rain outside of ORH county into CNE/NNE. The low levels are trash.

 

 

Nice, an elevation event....all that's needed to put the topping on this season's terd sundae.

[Damage In Tolland]

I actually have a good feeling on this one. Think it has legs. And not just for elevations. 

[tavwtby]

all we need now is a good one to get all those who were just outside the last two, and fire up the lawn thread, need at least a footer before we tan napes here... stuck just over 20" on the season at the beginning of February, them rookie numbers

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

all we need now is a good one to get all those who were just outside the last two, and fire up the lawn thread, need at least a footer before we tan napes here... stuck just over 20" on the season at the beginning of February, them rookie numbers

I'm at the point if you gave me the choice between a footer or spring, I'd want out. Need a bigger boat to make this season worthwhile 

[tavwtby]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm at the point if you gave me the choice between a footer or spring, I'd want out. Need a bigger boat to make this season worthwhile 

yeah I feel ya man, but it would at least ease the suffering a little, but I would definitely want a doozy, like the blizzard that just happened, I was like 40 miles from the goods, and this one where I was a little further but still, in between doesn't help, a coating of snizzle or 5" of sugar also don't help..

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, tavwtby said:

yeah I feel ya man, but it would at least ease the suffering a little, but I would definitely want a doozy, like the blizzard that just happened, I was like 40 miles from the goods, and this one where I was a little further but still, in between doesn't help, a coating of snizzle or 5" of sugar also don't help..

I was like 15 miles.

For context.....a footer would get me to just over 50% of seasonal mean, and still well below the 2019-2020 seasonal total.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm at the point if you gave me the choice between a footer or spring, I'd want out. Need a bigger boat to make this season worthwhile 

Morch is not far off. All signals continue pointing at early and warm month overall 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Morch is not far off. All signals continue pointing at early and warm month overall 

Wouldn't suprise me...my SSW is just about dead. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wouldn't suprise me...my SSW is just about dead. 

Hopefully like 2012