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Feb 2-4th Snowstorm- Observation Thread


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53 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

0z hrrr precip is done by 18z Friday. Razor thin gradient here. I'm just west of the 8.5, right on tioga county line in the 10" shade. Can't ever remember a synoptic storm around here where totals could be 2-3x different over a several mile stretch.

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I’m just SE of the 4.8 near Sidney.  Squarely in the 1” minus.  Super excited about that….

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1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Impressive that your area is cold enough to snow and about 4 miles from you it’s pouring and upper 30’s

Its coming through fast now again.  Looks like it got hung up again just NE of Buffalo for a bit but its moving again now.  I think we flip to frozen mix by 11pm.  Snowpack is holding strong!  The smaller piles are getting hit but the untouched pack area is still a solid 7" was 10" prior to warmup.  It will hold!

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

When you look at the Wunderground temps, it's literally in the 30s in every direction from the Sizzle and we are in this pocket of lower 40s right now. South winds here drive me bananas.

Prepare for extended rains and a snow minima. 6-7" at KSYZ is my call. We may eke out an extra inch NW.

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4 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

I’m just SE of the 4.8 near Sidney.  Squarely in the 1” minus.  Super excited about that….

Yeah... going to be nowcasting event for our area. Could go either way. Will have to see how things trend starting tomorrow morning real time as compared to the modeling.

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Just now, sferic said:

When do you think Brewerton, Clay, Lysander, Pulaski and Cicero Flip?

Depends if that front continues its quick jaunt that it all of a sudden started and when it starts to slow down. As long as we continue to get the warm farts off the hills to the south, we will be rain. My guess is it will begin flipping between 6 and 9 am.

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3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Its coming through fast now again.  Looks like it got hung up again just NE of Buffalo for a bit but its moving again now.  I think we flip to frozen mix by 11pm.  Snowpack is holding strong!  The smaller piles are getting hit but the untouched pack area is still a solid 7" was 10" prior to warmup.  It will hold!

Yes it has flipped. Not pure snow yet but definitely dendrites 

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Depends if that front continues its quick jaunt that it all of a sudden started and when it starts to slow down. As long as we continue to get the warm farts off the hills to the south, we will be rain. My guess is it will begin flipping between 6 and 9 am.

Agree, we will flip about 7-8 a.m. after most precip from first wave has moved thru.  After that SN- and cloudy till evening.

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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Wow, you're being pretty miserly about this. Skeptical of our ability to get good snowfalls anymore?

I don't think there's much Omega and alignment with DGZ is spotty at best. All of the initial wave qpf will be wasted on rain. There's no way I buy the 12" numbers some models have here.

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