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Feb 2-4th Snowstorm- Observation Thread


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5 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

No? The heavy stuff just north of the mix line is actually still sleet?

I know this wasn't directed at me, but I can confirm the blue over me in Saratoga County is still sleet.  Maybe some mangled snowflakes mixed in?  I'm certainly not sticking my face up into the sky to find out without eye protection.

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Just now, PerintonMan said:

No? The heavy stuff just north of the mix line is actually still sleet?

Yup or Zr in the higher terrain like kbgm is reporting right now. The tri-cities airport in Endicott reported light snow and 27° and their 6 miles south of me on the banks of the Susquehanna around 890ft elev... not sure I buy that one.

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

yea, gotta be lack of omega which lays that out well with lack of qpf. Didn't most models have like 1.2-1.4 for cuse area qpf wise lol?

Yes, that's what most models were Spitting out for KSYZ for qpf.  One caveat, we are a bit N of KSYZ and the soundings I was looking at were for the airport. If heaviest qpf is from SYZ to say Cortland, just to my south,  wouldn't shock me to see the city end up a bit better than here.  OTOH, we're halfway to double digits and a long way to go yet...so we may end up ok given the ratios I just measured...

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2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Yup or Zr in the higher terrain like kbgm is reporting right now. The tri-cities airport in Endicott reported light snow and 27° and their 6 miles south of me on the banks of the Susquehanna around 890ft elev... not sure I buy that one.

Whats the vis at tri cities, that should tell you whether it's legit or not. I highly doubt snow if the bgm is zr. Could be happening is lower elev than airport giving more time for rain droplets to freeze. Probably pelting with maybe a few needles thrown in 

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Yes, that's what most models were Spitting out for KSYZ.  One caveat, we are a bit N of KSYZ and the soundings I was looking at were for the airport. If heaviest qpf is from SYZ to say Cortland, just to my south,  wouldn't shock me to see the city end up a bit better than here.  OTOH, we're halfway to double digits and a long way to go yet...so we may end up ok given the ratios I just measured...

Yea and would think with any decent omega later on with cooling thermals aloft would increase chance of a bit better ratios 

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6 minutes ago, Stash said:

Been out and about in the Saratoga area, and it's absolutely pouring sleet.  I've never seen sleet this hard.  Complete scalping.  The roads may be worse than if this were an actual heavy snowfall.  Complete waste of precip, but at least it's unique.  Brings me back to the old days growing up in CT when many a beautiful snowstorms were ruined by that dreaded pinging sounds to let you know that rain was just around the corner.

I grew up in Connecticut and I feel this hard

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5 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

This was foreseen by some of the model soundings i was looking at the past day or so. But i was seeing some decent periods tonight. So maybe we get some better production at some point. This is long duration so maybe 10-12" not out of the question for us.

I was hoping that for once those models would be wrong and we could get REAL snow in a synoptic system here. You've lived here longer, so you know the climo better. As I've asked so many times, how on earth do we actually get to the average of 130 inches?? lol... Seems like so much always goes wrong. But like I mentioned a couple of times, these SWFEs are not ideal for Syracuse with the influences of topography to our south and northeast. We live and die by way of the coastals of yesteryear.

Still lots left in this system though...and perhaps the lake can get more involved than current thoughts. That enhancement has saved us a couple times since I've lived here. We get those hours of pure fluff.

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Whats the vis at tri cities, that should tell you whether it's legit or not. I highly doubt snow if the bgm is zr. Could be happening is lower elev than airport giving more time for rain droplets to freeze. Probably pelting with maybe a few needles thrown in 

No vis was included with that report looks like

Screenshot_20220203-224722_Chrome.thumb.jpg.6a55a665edcb62647705d4d92e6be905.jpg

 

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

I was hoping that for once those models would be wrong and we could get REAL snow in a synoptic system here. You've lived here longer, so you know the climo better. As I've asked so many times, how on earth do we actually get to the average of 130 inches?? lol... Seems like so much always goes wrong. But like I mentioned a couple of times, these SWFEs are not ideal for Syracuse with the influences of topography to our south and northeast. We live and die by way of the coastals of yesteryear.

Still lots left in this system though...and perhaps the lake can get more involved than current thoughts. That enhancement has saved us a couple times since I've lived here. We get those hours of pure fluff.

We had a normal Nov for snowfall (at KSYZ), about 9". Jan was a little light but 80-90% of Norm.  BUT, WE LOST DECEMBER.  If Feb and March are avg, we'll end up around 100" or so. Then there is the April and May "bone-us" snows. ;)

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16 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

If only this radar was accurate...

Pounding sleet and 27.1° at 930ft elev

Kbgm airport reporting Zr and 24° at 1630ft elev 5 miles away.

852795382_animate(18).gif.fa5b19cfda0375de8b82bba91775a1fd.gif

Yeah, their discussion was very interesting. That cold dense air is sliding in underneath and refreezing the precip.into sleet in the valleys, while it rains and freezes up on the hilltops, closer to the warm layer above. Pure Science weenieism!

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5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, their discussion was very interesting. That cold dense air is sliding in underneath and refreezing the precip.into sleet in the valleys, while it rains and freezes up on the hilltops, closer to the warm layer above. Pure Science weenieism!

She blinded me with SCIENCE! (Thomas Dolby 1980s for you young 'Tards ;) )

hqdefault.jpg

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10 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

We had a normal Nov for snowfall (at KSYZ), about 9". Jan was a little light but 80-90% of Norm.  BUT, WE LOST DECEMBER.  If Feb and March are avg, we'll end up around 100" or so. Then there is the April and May "bone-us" snows. ;)

December is my favorite winter month. Losing it makes it impossible to give this winter a good grade.

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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Sounds like a good competitor for that Yerdon lady in N. Redfield who takes 5,000 pictures of herself cheerleader jumping off snow piles.

Yeah shes very similar to her loves the snow. Shes the snow capital of WNY by far. She gets all the upslope off the Chautuaqua ridge. Think her average is like 225" a year.

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