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Feb 2-4th Snowstorm- Observation Thread


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19 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Do they still go to school anymore?

Ha... we have only had ONE school closing this entire season....and that was barely necessary. You seem to think schools are always closing...when really we would all love a few snow days...especially during these crazy times in education.

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A long duration snow event is underway across the region, a wavy
frontal boundary has dropped just to the south. This feature will
temporarily stall over Pennsylvania this afternoon. In the process,
frontogentic lift blo H70 will support widespread light snow over
our forecast area. Snowfall rates through early afternoon should
only be a few tenths of an inch an hour, with lesser amounts
possible over parts of the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario
region.

During the course of this afternoon, a stronger wave will track
along the front from the Tennessee valley to about West Virginia.
Deeper frontogenetic lift being enhanced aloft by a 180kt H25 jet...
racing across Ontario and western Quebec, will prompt the light snow
to pick up in intensity from the southwest. Snowfall rates over the
western counties will increase to a half to one inch per hour at
that time. Daytime snow accumulations will generally range from
three to five inches with the bulk of the region more likely to
experience the lower end of that range.

Temperatures will gradually settle lower during the course of the
day with mercury readings falling to the teens and lower 20s by this
evening. The deepening cold air on the north side of the
aforementioned front will also lead to a change in the character of
the snow, with 8-10:1 ratios through early afternoon supporting wet
snow and 12-15:1 ratios by nightfall allowing the snow to become a
little fluffier. The `drier` snow will be more prone to the gusty
north winds that will encourage some areas to experience some
blowing snow during the afternoon and first part of tonight.

Tonight...the well organized sfc wave will pass to our south across
Pennsylvania. This will place the strongest lift from the ensuing
deformation zone over parts of our forecast area...mainly south and
east of a line from Buffalo and Rochester to Watertown. Snowfall
rates of an inch an hour will be possible. For the western
counties...the higher rates will be focused on the first half of the
night. Additional snowfall tonight will range from four to seven
inches. This 12 hour period...including the Friday morning rush
hour...will likely be the time frame with the worst travel
conditions. It will be colder tonight than the past couple...as the
mercury will drop into the teens over the western counties and into
the single digits across the North Country.

On Friday...a sharpening longwave trough will dig across the Upper
Great Lakes. This will help to shove the wavy frontal boundary over
the Mid Atlantic region further away to the southeast and remove the
persistent forcing that will have been over our region. While the
widespread snow will taper off to scattered snow showers for the
bulk of the region...some lake enhancement during the afternoon will
keep fairly widespread snow showers in place from Batavia and
Rochester to Wayne and Ontario counties. Snowfall amounts during the
day Friday will only add up to another inch or two with the highest
amounts just south of Lake Ontario. It will be cold...with temps
only rebounding into the upper teens to near 20 in most areas
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6 minutes ago, sferic said:

Living up here now more than Long Island I notice  people here  really don't panic grocery buy like it's the end of the world hours leading up to a snowstorm

That's because we either doubt it's going to happen or it's just a part of our lifestyle to have enough things stocked up... we also know how well they take care of the roads and that we won't be trapped in our homes for long. :) 

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

That's because we either doubt it's going to happen or it's just a part of our lifestyle to have enough things stocked up... we also know how well they take care of the roads and that we won't be trapped in our homes for long. :) 

I see that !

Between Wegmans and price chopper I have Long Island Quality foods here !

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

That's because we either doubt it's going to happen or it's just a part of our lifestyle to have enough things stocked up... we also know how well they take care of the roads and that we won't be trapped in our homes for long. :) 

Exactly this. I come from NJ and feel the same. We just shrug our shoulders and maybe grab some extra junk food for fun. 

That and there a LOT less people. Thank God. 

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