tim123 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, Syrmax said: WTF are u posting here? Try doing some basic editing? Arw. Meso model. Sorry just screen shot it. Don't worry I will divide your snow by 5 to get what you will recieve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Wind shift line quickly approaching KROC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Snow pack is still looking good! Hard to see the picture at night but went to check the cross section i dug out in my yard last week. I would assume this would represent a good idea of WNY "untouched" snow depth. Down from 10" to 7". The bottom and middle snow layers each compacted by about a 1/2"-1" each. The bottom layer looking to have some water accumulation making a clear slushy bottom. The ground itself is frozen solid so no moisture is seeping in under the pack. In fact the enclosed dug out area that melted to grass has a thin pool building on it. The top layer appears to be absorbing a large amount of this rain as the top snow layer is turning to wet cement. Water content was 1.80" last week, would think the rain on top is adding more than the melt off underneath. Think we compact down to about 5-6" of just slop and then add this event ontop of it for a fresh start. Post event would expect water content of total snow on the ground to be in the 3"-3.5" range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Arw. Meso model. Sorry just screen shot it. Don't worry I will divide your snow by 5 to get what you will recieve Thats not the point. It would be helpful to see what model, what run, is it 10:1 or Kurchera, if ur gonna post them... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Arw. Meso model. Sorry just screen shot it. Don't worry I will divide your snow by 5 to get what you will recieve No tim, the only place we divide the snow by FIVE is over Matts house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Here is a good sign, 00Z NAM skew-T for KSYZ AT HR 27 Thursday 10pm. Good UVV (-12.7 ub/sec) and DGZ alignment. This would be SN+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Thats not the point. It would be helpful to see what model, what run, is it 10:1 or Kurchera, if ur gonna post them... I agree, but the way in which you requested it was a bit harsh. And...it's Tim, so assume the map will be Kuchera. That cancels out one of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: No tim, the only place we divide the snow by FIVE is over Matts house. Indeed! That algorithm has yet to be added to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just dipped below 36 here. Winds shifting more easterly now. According to the Tempest stations in the area, wind shift reached Irondequoit Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Snow since 10:30 ground is already covered. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Flipped right over to snow. Hour ago was moderate rain now light snow but already a nice coating on the pavement and accumulating efficiently despite the lower rates. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Wind shift to 290 at Rochester. The cold air is relentlessly marching eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 33 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Thats not the point. It would be helpful to see what model, what run, is it 10:1 or Kurchera, if ur gonna post them... What's it matter your getting 3 inches anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: What's it matter your getting 3 inches anyway What matters is you’re posting maps and nobody but you knows what they’re looking at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Wind shift to 290 at Rochester. The cold air is relentlessly marching eastward. I can't decide if this is good or bad for us? If it actually makes it here, we could get more snow tonight and tomorrow than being called for. But, that might push the best snows tomorrow night to the south. The models look to have already shifted the best band just to our south (including the Rgem which consistently gave us the best goods). Maybe it won't make much of a difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: What's it matter your getting 3 inches anyway ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 43 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Thats not the point. It would be helpful to see what model, what run, is it 10:1 or Kurchera, if ur gonna post them... 6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: What matters is you’re posting maps and nobody but you knows what they’re looking at. Are you two channeling your inner "Freak?" I'm just waiting for him to jump on and rip into tim... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Snow since 10:30 ground is already covered. cant get the wider radar to post here but after that enhanced area sinks south out of erie county things look pretty lack luster with just light snow showers and a few heavier bursts. 2-4" from now through 7am is a good call for WNY before part two fires up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 33.4 and rain in Pittsford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Perusing through the Great Lakes forum, it appears wave one underperformed in many places. Report of 5:1 ratios today...yikes. Many posts saying that the model numbers were way too high. Wave 2 is coming with more cold air available though, so we shall see. But, this would be a good "head's up" again to stick closer to the 10:1 ratios and NOT Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 00Z FV3 for KSYZ 6pm tomorrow, this about when real snow starts. Won't be much till then, here. Maybe about 3" by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 00Z FV3 for KSYZ 6pm tomorrow, this about when real snow starts. Won't be much till then, here. Maybe about 3" by this time. Jim Teske is forecasting 2-4 by 6 PM tomorrow then another 4-8 overnight to get to the 6-12 he’s forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: cant get the wider radar to post here but after that enhanced area sinks south out of erie county things look pretty lack luster with just light snow showers and a few heavier bursts. 2-4" from now through 7am is a good call for WNY before part two fires up. There will be a dry slot before wave 2 but there should be some redeveloping as well as it moves NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Are you two channeling your inner "Freak?" I'm just waiting for him to jump on and rip into tim... Bring it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Definitely going to be another "overnight high" in KSYZ... been so many the past few years. Southerly wind keeping the furnace going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Perusing through the Great Lakes forum, it appears wave one underperformed in many places. Report of 5:1 ratios today...yikes. Many posts saying that the model numbers were way too high. Wave 2 is coming with more cold air available though, so we shall see. But, this would be a good "head's up" again to stick closer to the 10:1 ratios and NOT Kuchera. The biggest issue will be exactly where the heavier qpf Axis sets up. Looking at a slew of 0Z models, I'd say consensus is from say Dunkirk through Elmira to between Syr/Cortland and on NE to Glens Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Jim Teske is forecasting 2-4 by 6 PM tomorrow then another 4-8 overnight to get to the 6-12 he’s forecasting. I could see that. Looking closer at 0Z models I'm thinking 7-10" for us in no. Onondaga. I think a few inches more (8-12") for SYZ and south to Cortland. BGM...airport may be on edge of best snow (5"?) City itself probably 2-3". Albany in a similar spot as BGM... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Look at that 18 by Skaneatles! This is 1:10!! Pee break. F yes!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Pee break. F yes!!!! Thusfar 0.09" rain thru 0030. So we've missed an inch or so of snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Thusfar 0.09" rain thru 0030. So we've missed an inch or so of snow potential. Man, you HATE this storm. What it do to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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