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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Are there any storms on record where that actually worked? Lol

I don't have the memory for storms that others do here.  But I am sure there have been some storms where the strength of the storm has actually lowered the temperatures enough to create snow.  It may be more of a function of the system pulling in colder air from the north?  We'll need someone with more working knowledge to explain the concept of a storm creating its own cold air.

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29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest GEFS extended seems to lose the cold anomalies after the 3rd week of February.   JB says winter looking over in 3-4 weeks as MJO goes to Phase 4.  Hopefully we get some snow by President’s Day weekend.

That day kinda feels like a usually benchmark around here...not much of note happens after that most of the time in the urban corridor. I mean you had a couple of occasions, but if you were to compare pre-President's day with afterward? Yeah it's a bit of benchmark, it seems...but perhaps I'm biased by focusing on moderate to big snows, lol

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4 hours ago, Chris78 said:

If you just looked at h5 you would think the storm would be further west compared to 18z.

@Ji In regards to GFS

Look at 500 mb vorticity and it's a busy mess with multiple positively tilted vort maxes. The low develops ahead of that elongated ribbon of vorticity in response to that trailing shortwave dropping in, and if you look further upstairs you will see a pretty strong jet streak out in front of that ribbon. That gives a more complete picture of why the low forms in that location and tracks ENE. I am looking at the 6z GFS btw.

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11 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I have a very non scientific rule. Two basic things needed for snow: temps and precip. If one is a lock it’s okay to root for the other. When both are a concern; move along. Tuesdays event falls under that category where both things need to break right. Unlikely 

Vey scientific.  You’re saying that we need cold AND precip for it to snow?  Are you completely sure about this?  

 

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Look at 500 mb vorticity and it's a busy mess with multiple positively tilted vort maxes. The low develops ahead of that elongated ribbon of vorticity in response to that trailing shortwave dropping in, and if you look further upstairs you will see a pretty strong jet streak out in front of that ribbon. That gives a more complete picture of why the low forms in that location and tracks ENE. I am looking at the 6z GFS btw.

Thanks.  6z was definitely a step back at h5. When I made the post last night I was comparing 0z to 18z. 0z was more amped at h5 compared to 18z. 

Monday/Tuesday deal is a long shot anyway. Hopefully Valentines day weekend trends In a good way.

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12 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Latest GEFS extended seems to lose the cold anomalies after the 3rd week of February.   JB says winter looking over in 3-4 weeks as MJO goes to Phase 4.  Hopefully we get some snow by President’s Day weekend.

What did the gefs and eps extended show for right now 3-4 weeks ago?  I guess eventually they will be correct if they keep saying the same thing. 
 

What I’ve noticed is those long range guidance systems skew heavily towards “typical climo” in a given major base state. That’s why in 2019 they kept teasing us with the “typical Nino” look that never came. This year they keep wanting to revert to “typical Nina “ but something is obviously countermanding that. 
 

Im not saying they are useless. Going with typical climo for a dominant driver base state isn’t a bad idea sometimes. So when it gets “what’s driving the bus” right they can be useful. But when a season is not going according to typical for a given base state they tend to be awful and keep teasing a shift back to said typical base state climo. 

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10 hours ago, Amped said:

CMC has an interesting H5 look at 210hrs. It's trying for the big one.

 

Edit: Looks like the southern stream escaped to early. It was close

Very similar problem to last weekend. Not much was said on this but Imo what went wrong most was simply the timing of where the stj waves were. The ridge trough alignment was great. The NS SW dug far enough southwest. The problem was at the critical time as that SW rounded the base and looked to amplify there were two STJ waves, one in the western gulf behind it and one way off east of Florida. It linked up and phased with that one.  That pulled all the energy too Far East.  We would have been fine if a stj wave was in the eastern gulf coast at that time. Or absent that we would have been better off if there was no stj wave at all. The track of that NS wave was perfect for another 3-6” snowstorm like the one we had earlier this month if it simply amplified on its own along the arctic boundary instead of phasing into the stj wave. 

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30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What did the gefs and eps extended show for right now 3-4 weeks ago?  I guess eventually they will be correct if they keep saying the same thing. 
 

What I’ve noticed is those long range guidance systems skew heavily towards “typical climo” in a given major base state. That’s why in 2019 they kept teasing us with the “typical Nino” look that never came. This year they keep wanting to revert to “typical Nina “ but something is obviously countermanding that. 
 

Im not saying they are useless. Going with typical climo for a dominant driver base state isn’t a bad idea sometimes. So when it gets “what’s driving the bus” right they can be useful. But when a season is not going according to typical for a given base state they tend to be awful and keep teasing a shift back to said typical base state climo. 

GEFS extended has actually done a pretty good job with the temps.  I think the red flags for me are that looking at the teleconnections the PNA anomalies are increasing toward the end of February and the MJO is forecast to go into Warm Phase 4. 

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39 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

GEFS extended has actually done a pretty good job with the temps.  I think the red flags for me are that looking at the teleconnections the PNA anomalies are increasing toward the end of February and the MJO is forecast to go into Warm Phase 4. 

I honestly rarely look but I do know at one point earlier in January they showed a total torch for February. 

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