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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I think it's easy to see the outcome when looking at the Gfs 18z if it was a nice track.  I95 on nw probably would have been wet paste 

@WVclimo posted the other day about 35% of climo for his back yard 

It's not been a good winter so far for the northern/NW crew.

We still have another 4 to 6 weeks of good tracking but if we get to the second part of February And still sitting at 35% it's going to be tough to get to climo.

Glad the Eastern areas are cashing in though. The last few years have been tough if your a snow lover in the area.

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah last winter could have been much better for places along the fall line and points east with the persistent favorable look up top, if not for the overwhelming pacific puke. That is the set up that usually works so well for my location wrt snowfall, yet I have done MUCH better this winter in a Nina with no blocking. The difference is clearly the degree of cold air available, but it also took some luck.

We got screwed early in the season last year with the cold air getting trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. We have had plenty of cold this year. It just so happens east did better. It happens. Doesnt make it any less insufferable for those of us to the west. It just is what it is. 

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

We got screwed early in the season last year with the cold air getting trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. We have had plenty of cold this year. It just so happens east did better. It happens. Doesnt make it any less insufferable for those of us to the west. It just is what it is. 

That's why I will always say give me the cold and I will take my chances (with storms moving into it). It can work the other way, but less likely. Jan 3 was an example of that. But that was impressive cold pressing SE and perfect timing(for eastern areas). Got to have the cold in place, or nearby and on the move.

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Non stop tracking the past 5 weeks . That's all u can ask for in this area and hobby.  Just a bit of bad luck but that's the way it goes but 7 weeks to realistically get accumulating snow n+w. Last season was a solid year . Well over 43" here I believe.  There were 2 HECS in the Mid Atlantic/ Northeast and we got a good "piece" of both .

Yep. Alot of times it's just luck and randomness that determines the haves and have not.

 

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4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Quandary:  8th is my birthday and was planning to go out for a nice dinner….willing to sacrifice it for a foot of snow.

Keep the plans…enjoy your birthday dinner.  There is a better chance of aging back one year than a foot of snow.  

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16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Control is very close to  a decent track . 1 bump west game on 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-east-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-4321600.thumb.png.a9490ce7839ff3ee80837d4a9e1dfd59.png

1 bump west and it’s rain. At least for most of us. Not sure about 18z, but 12z euro had the boundary layer torched. 850 was below freezing, but 925 and below was balmy. 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Surface looks workable with overnight early am timing . A amped enough system tracking in a decent spot should help the entire column verbatim correct ?

Eps 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-t2m_f-4321600.thumb.png.2e4bf25d144077147179e05e2ded5e4d.png

That looks ok. This would definitely be an overnight-only sort of scenario. 

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z has no 925 mb temps unfortunately 

Edit..0z and 12z don't neither 

It would be nice if something broke our way. Nothing really has worked out with the last 3 or 4 chances. Would be funny if this system works out with marginal temps after all the cold that produced nothing. I hate saying we're due but we're due!

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Just now, HighStakes said:

It would be nice if something broke our way. Nothing really has worked out with the last 3 or 4 chances. Would be funny if this system works out with marginal temps after all the cold that produced nothing. I hate saying we're due but we're due!

Unfortunately we’re do, don’t work here…,conditions based only

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1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

We got screwed early in the season last year with the cold air getting trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. We have had plenty of cold this year. It just so happens east did better. It happens. Doesnt make it any less insufferable for those of us to the west. It just is what it is. 

I get the frustration, especially when the western zones should be getting more snow than those of us further east.  Last year, those of us east of Loudoun had a terrible year, (but better than 2020), so this one has been fairly decent. It would be nice if all of us can get in on a storm.  It’s been a while. 

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