CAPE Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Maybe your right….or maybe if they show nothing positive I should just refrain from posting them…. Ignorance is bliss, they say! That map indicates what we already know to be the likely outcome over the next several days- all the snow will fall from central PA and north, and little to nothing south of there. Maybe check out the 2 storm threads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On a positive note, 12Z WB GFS does have a storm in fantasy land….this is within the seven day period GEFS extended has liked for a couple of days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Maybe your right….or maybe if they show nothing positive I should just refrain from posting them…. Ignorance is bliss, they say! What? No one’s disagreeing that we likely won’t see much in the way of appreciable snow over the next several days. Hell, maybe we even get shut out the rest of winter. The point remains the same though. Using clown maps showing 7-15 day snowfall totals to come to your conclusions is still wrong, even if the outcome ends up ultimately being correct. There’s so many other resources you could be utilizing to come to these conclusions which actually hold merit. Clown maps are trash and they shouldn’t be the sole basis of your doubt over a given patterns potential (or lack thereof) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: On a positive note, 12Z WB GFS does have a storm in fantasy land….this is within the seven day period GEFS extended has liked for a couple of days. 384 hr clown map? Literally meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I generally agree but the AO flipping negative could change the equation slightly. I’m skeptical but willing to be open minded. But a epo/pna driven pattern with a raging positive AO is just as flawed and difficult to score in as a -AO with a hostile pac. Right now, as I said to Cape in his storm thread, we are in a double bind. We need waves to gain amplitude to overcome the progressive flow and not get suppressed. But with a raging +AO anything that does amplify likely tracks to our northwest. We’re left needing to thread a needle. If the AO does flip negative we could have more luck we there could be some resistance to a more amplified wave not just cutting. We are running out of time but could get a window before it’s over if the changes up top on guidance are real. Exactly! Excellent factual point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Just an observation this year... feels like MA winter wx chasing has turned you from Weather Will to Weather Won't. It's a brutal game. Ji's therapist ended up needing therapy after trying to fix him. Lmao. Good one !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, baldereagle said: The handle "Weather Won't", which intends zero disrespect toward Will, is just hilariously true in its ultimate context as a statement on the forum as to the plight of the mid-Atlantic. Def wasn't a personal dig. I can literally feel his transition this year though and I haven't been active much. We've all been there. It's a rough hobby for results. If you are an instant gratification or efficient results oriented person, you're in the wrong corner of the internet. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I generally agree but the AO flipping negative could change the equation slightly. I’m skeptical but willing to be open minded. But a epo/pna driven pattern with a raging positive AO is just as flawed and difficult to score in as a -AO with a hostile pac. Right now, as I said to Cape in his storm thread, we are in a double bind. We need waves to gain amplitude to overcome the progressive flow and not get suppressed. But with a raging +AO anything that does amplify likely tracks to our northwest. We’re left needing to thread a needle. If the AO does flip negative we could have more luck we there could be some resistance to a more amplified wave not just cutting. We are running out of time but could get a window before it’s over if the changes up top on guidance are real. I'm absolutely not in cancel mode. I just flipped the switch to show it to me inside of 5 days (heights, blocking, cold, storms, doesn't matter). Every encouraging look this year beyond d5 since Jan cold set in has generally deteriorated. The further out the good look, the bigger the deterioration. The sucky part is it hasn't been a collapse with the good looks. Just that we don't have a lot of wiggle room and heights have just refused to cooperate enough to get the job done. I'm a bit doubtful that personaliy trait this year is going anywhere. I like the AO height trend too. Let's see what it looks like when it counts. I'm not going anywhere but I'm not tracking phantoms and ghosts either 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: What a full and rewarding life you must have. Will see who is right. Keep chasing unicorns though. I love snow but every storm trends north out of our area. Truth hurts this year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 hours ago, pazzo83 said: i have a feeling we better start getting used to winters that last one month to maybe six weeks. I've been use to that for years in AA County. I moved to Carroll County and picked up a whooping 8" for the season lol. I guess winter in the MA is really a thing of the past it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, jlewis1111 said: Will see who is right. Keep chasing unicorns though. I love snow but every storm trends north out of our area. Truth hurts this year It snows more further north. Got it. Don’t know what we would do without you. Thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It snows more further north. Got it. Don’t know what we would do without you. Thanks. hold on i'm gonna write this down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Not always. I’ve been hanging out in the upstate NY forum; two things I’ve learned; they are jealous of our coastal nor Easters and two; they complain more than we do. Apparently Syracuse is a snow hole and always gets screwed. Yes; Syracuse. Go explain it to him. Have a nice conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 It snows more further north. Got it. Don’t know what we would do without you. Thanks. Not one storm has trended north this year. That's why you have had no snow this season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It snows more further north. Got it. Don’t know what we would do without you. Thanks. Not one storm has trended north this year. That's why you have had no snow this season Does northwest count? If so the storm that got yanked inland last month would like to have a word... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Bring on the 70s! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Does northwest count? If so the storm that got yanked inland last month would like to have a word... The Super bowl day event trended right into the lap of Psu land. It was pretty localized but it trended NW across guidance in the few days prior, well other than the GFS, which never figured that one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 12z GFS teasing for around the 10th. Way out there but this is the period where recent ensemble guidance has been depicting a pretty nice h5 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 GFS has a wave bringing snow the week of March 7 for the last couple of runs. My Hail Mary storm… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS teasing for around the 10th. Way out there but this is the period where recent ensemble guidance has been depicting a pretty nice h5 look. ‘93 Just keep thinking it and it will come 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS teasing for around the 10th. Way out there but this is the period where recent ensemble guidance has been depicting a pretty nice h5 look. Seems like there’s a chance for a northern stream clipper/shortwave/thing to bring some snow late next week. along with some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 End of the run on the 12z GFS has that confluent Bob Chill bowl-ish look. Would be typical if we got that as we hit the middle of March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Seems like there’s a chance for a northern stream clipper/shortwave/thing to bring some snow late next week. along with some cold air. Yeah I saw that on the GFS. It looks like something that would probably end up further NE. Already coming in a bit too far east at an odd trajectory for our area. Could always trend the other way though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I saw that on the GFS. It looks like something that would probably end up further NE. Already coming in a bit too far east at an odd trajectory for our area. Could always trend the other way though! That’s what euro has. GGEM drops it over us but Apps eat all the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 33 minutes ago, mattie g said: End of the run on the 12z GFS has that confluent Bob Chill bowl-ish look. Would be typical if we got that as we hit the middle of March... Just in time for a parade of 40 degree cold rain storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That’s what euro has. GGEM drops it over us but Apps eat all the snow. All subject to change. Significant model errors in ridge amplitude/ axis and timing of northern stream energy coming south is likely at this range. (as we just saw with the failed Sunday-Monday potential). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS teasing for around the 10th. Way out there but this is the period where recent ensemble guidance has been depicting a pretty nice h5 look. Mid March is kind of a hot spot for snows in Nina years also for some reason. Even some really awful ones like 1976 managed a mid March fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Mid March is kind of a hot spot for snows in Nina years also for some reason. Even some really awful ones like 1976 managed a mid March fluke. 2018 was a good one. Classic paste bomb even here. Think I ended up with 7" or so, and you probably did better iirc. Ofc that was another one of those recent "good" Nina winters for eastern areas in general. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 2018 was a good one. Classic paste bomb even here. Think I ended up with 7" or so, and you probably did better iirc. Ofc that was another one of those recent "good" Nina winters for eastern areas in general. I think I had 14” from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Any 1976 Carroll County details ? it was 3-10-76. A year with very little snow before that. According to coop data it was a general 8-12” across our area. Some specific totals I found. 8.1” in Westminster, 12.5 in Unionville. 12” in Hanover. 9” in Emmitsburg, 10.5 in Parkton 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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