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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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3 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

i have a feeling we better start getting used to winters that last one month to maybe six weeks.

I've been use to that for years in AA County. I moved to Carroll County and picked up a whooping 8" for the season lol. I guess winter in the MA is really a thing of the past it seems. 

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14 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Not always. I’ve been hanging out in the upstate NY forum; two things I’ve learned; they are jealous of our coastal nor Easters and two; they complain more than we do. Apparently Syracuse is a snow hole and always gets screwed. Yes; Syracuse. 

Go explain it to him. Have a nice conversation. 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:
It snows more further north. Got it. Don’t know what we would do without you. Thanks.  

Not one storm has trended north this year. That's why you have had no snow this season

Does northwest count? If so the storm that got yanked inland last month would like to have a word...

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8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Does northwest count? If so the storm that got yanked inland last month would like to have a word...

The Super bowl day event trended right into the lap of Psu land. It was pretty localized but it trended NW across guidance in the few days prior, well other than the GFS, which never figured that one out.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

12z GFS teasing for around the 10th. Way out there but this is the period where recent ensemble guidance has been depicting a pretty nice h5 look.

Seems like there’s a chance for a northern stream clipper/shortwave/thing to bring some snow late next week. along with some cold air.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems like there’s a chance for a northern stream clipper/shortwave/thing to bring some snow late next week. along with some cold air.

Yeah I saw that on the GFS. It looks like something that would probably end up further NE. Already coming in a bit too far east at an odd trajectory for our area. Could always trend the other way though!

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I saw that on the GFS. It looks like something that would probably end up further NE. Already coming in a bit too far east at an odd trajectory for our area. Could always trend the other way though!

That’s what euro has. GGEM drops it over us but Apps eat all the snow.

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11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s what euro has. GGEM drops it over us but Apps eat all the snow.

All subject to change. Significant model errors in ridge amplitude/ axis and timing of northern stream energy coming south is likely at this range. (as we just saw with the failed Sunday-Monday potential).

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

12z GFS teasing for around the 10th. Way out there but this is the period where recent ensemble guidance has been depicting a pretty nice h5 look.

Mid March is kind of a hot spot for snows in Nina years also for some reason. Even some really awful ones like 1976 managed a mid March fluke. 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Mid March is kind of a hot spot for snows in Nina years also for some reason. Even some really awful ones like 1976 managed a mid March fluke. 

2018 was a good one. Classic paste bomb even here. Think I ended up with 7" or so, and you probably did better iirc.

Ofc that was another one of those recent "good" Nina winters for eastern areas in general.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Any 1976 Carroll County details ?

it was 3-10-76. A year with very little snow before that.

According to coop data it was a general 8-12” across our area. Some specific totals I found. 8.1” in Westminster, 12.5 in Unionville. 12” in  Hanover. 9” in Emmitsburg, 10.5 in Parkton  

 

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43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

it was 3-10-76. A year with very little snow before that.

According to coop data it was a general 8-12” across our area. Some specific totals I found. 8.1” in Westminster, 12.5 in Unionville. 12” in  Hanover. 9” in Emmitsburg, 10.5 in Parkton  

 

I remember that one I think. I was just a kid and it was a nearly snowless winter and the forecast was for 1-2" iirc. Ended up with close to a foot. School let out early and fun times sledding late that afternoon.

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The medium range looks pretty active but for now it looks like most of the action will be north of us. Looking ahead, recent GFS op runs have advertised a winter storm that takes a more favorable track for our region around the 10th. Looks active leading up to that and the pattern looks decent, but it remains to be seen if anything can track underneath.

The best h5 look on the GEFS is centered on March 10 with a favorable AO and NAO, indication low heights off the Canadian Maritimes, and there is a bit of a signal for a storm. Still out in fantasyland and it is getting kinda late.

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1646913600-YzXJRNgmNs8.png

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11 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

 

4.5" downtown DC on 3/21/2018 +SN that morning...I had a cartopper+ on 3/6/18, but don't recall it

 

 

IMG_0261.JPG

My main note on 3/21/18 was that I lost to all three airports (3.7”).  3/6 was very warm ~35 for the snowfall here so I’m not surprised it didn’t collect in DC.  0.9”

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The EPS snowfall mean at College Park for the next 15 days is 0.3" of which 0.1" "occurred" this morning.  The mean exceeded the 75th PCTL, which was ~0.15".  The GEFS snowfall mean for the next 10 days is also low ~0.1" mostly due to one member which gives us 3" on the 6th. 

This is quite unusual for February - in almost any pattern.  I'd be nervous to take the "under" of these model "forecasts". 

 

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