CAPE Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not sure enso drives the bus the same way anymore. The last Nino behaved like a Nina. Last winter and this didn’t really behave like canonical Nina’s either. There was plenty of stj this year and the pac pattern was almost dead opposite a typical Nina. If we had any Atlantic help at all I think we would have done very well. Nina wasn’t our biggest problem a raging positive NAO was. I generally concur with this assessment. Last winter the impact of HL blocking was largely mitigated due to the complete lack of legitimate cold in our source region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: I generally concur with this assessment. Last winter the impact of HL blocking was largely mitigated due to the complete lack of legitimate cold in our source region. We need to time up last years Atlantic pattern with this years pac pattern. I suppose a Nino would help increase the odds, at least it can’t hurt. But our biggest problem since 2016 is that both the pac and Atlantic long term base states are opposite of what we want. There is variance but when both are spending 75% of the time in a bad look it gets really difficult to time them both up. And for all the attempts to simplify things to one factor (it’s enso, cold, precip, pac, Atlantic) truth is we need some help from both if we want to get a big winter which if we’re being honest is what most in here are hunting for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 The window for a big event seems to have been shut down. Climo says MAYBE we get a little fun, but this winter is almost ready for a fork, a serenade, a Schwarzenegger Spanish goodbye..... Close the blinds.... (hopefully 12z just smacks me silly and brings it.. but I doubt it!) Severe season is close! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: The window for a big event seems to have been shut down. Climo says MAYBE we get a little fun, but this winter is almost ready for a fork, a serenade, a Schwarzenegger Spanish goodbye..... Close the blinds.... (hopefully 12z just smacks me silly and brings it.. but I doubt it!) Severe season is close! This season is now like a 40 year old football quarterback. Maybe he gets another good season or two; but the window for greatness is quickly closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: The window for a big event seems to have been shut down. Climo says MAYBE we get a little fun, but this winter is almost ready for a fork, a serenade, a Schwarzenegger Spanish goodbye..... Close the blinds.... (hopefully 12z just smacks me silly and brings it.. but I doubt it!) Severe season is close! January was fun. that was winter..one month...I got my fork ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Is there any wintry stuff after Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 This winter ended as soon as we started this thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 It is interesting to look back and see just how terrible February has been since 2010, at least down here by DC. Since 2010, my house and DCA: 2011 (0.3", 0.5") 2012 (0.3", 0.3") 2013 (0.6", 0.4") 2014 (17.9", 11.2") 2015 (10.3", 9.8") 2016 (4.4", 3.1") 2017 (T, T) 2018 (1.2", 0.2") 2019 (5.1", 3.7") 2020 (T, T) 2021 (4.4", 2.8") 2022 (0.5", T) Climo is 5" at DCA, meaning that we have exceeded climo fewer times than recording a T over these dozen years. The median is about a half inch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 27 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: It is interesting to look back and see just how terrible February has been since 2010, at least down here by DC. Since 2010, my house and DCA: 2011 (0.3", 0.5") 2012 (0.3", 0.3") 2013 (0.6", 0.4") 2014 (17.9", 11.2") 2015 (10.3", 9.8") 2016 (4.4", 3.1") 2017 (T, T) 2018 (1.2", 0.2") 2019 (5.1", 3.7") 2020 (T, T) 2021 (4.4", 2.8") 2022 (0.5", T) Climo is 5" at DCA, meaning that we have exceeded climo fewer times than recording a T over these dozen years. The median is about a half inch! This January was a B in my opinion, but February has been an F. Absent a March miracle we’re looking at a C- winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 What's happening to the early March highly touted big potential window? Here we go. Just shifted a few days. And a better look up top! This is the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: What's happening to the early March highly touted big potential window? Here we go. Just shifted a few days. And a better look up top! This is the one. Wait what's that rattling I'm hearing?.......Oh that's just the proverbial models can-kicking! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: What's happening to the early March highly touted big potential window? Here we go. Just shifted a few days. And a better look up top! This is the one. Just have Randy change the thread title to this window... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: What's happening to the early March highly touted big potential window? Here we go. Just shifted a few days. And a better look up top! This is the one. Just in time for 2-3 weeks of 40F rain to end March and start April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 16 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Just have Randy change the thread title to this window... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, jaydreb said: This January was a B in my opinion, but February has been an F. Absent a March miracle we’re looking at a C- winter. I’d put Jan at a B+/A- in my book. Problem is that it is bookended by Fs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 C+ for Western Prince William….was expecting an F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Just in time for 2-3 weeks of 40F rain to end March and start April. Miserable golf weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I’m putting this winter as a B-, saved in Frederick by two decent storms. This is a relative grade compared to the last 2 winters. It’s my first time living up here and I’m just glad it actually snowed. Realistically, it’s probably a C+. One more warning level snowfall and it’s a solid B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 56 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I’d put Jan at a B+/A- in my book. Problem is that it is bookended by Fs. Yeah I would go with an A here for Jan, I can't recall a better one in many years. December was awful as usual, and February has sucked other than still having snow otg for the first few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I would go with an A here for Jan, I can't recall a better one in many years. December was awful as usual, and February has sucked other than still having snow otg for the first few days. Of course Jan was an A for some and a C for others...lol So averaging it out for the whole subforum I'd give it a B-. For my yard a definite C...because getting skunked that Monday sucked! That and the poor ROI tracking the rest of the month was also annoying. You'd think it could've gone better...but looking at the lack of Atlantic help, you can see why it wasn't. I had predicted 13-15" for this winter...BWI is at 14 and my yard around 11, so that's turning out to be true (unfortunately). I'm sure if we can't get March to produce for the n/nw crew they'd rate this winter lower, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Is this what we're doing now? Winter is over? Fine with me, I'm ready to get some sun. A+ January in Charlottesville, we averaged 3.0F below average from Jan 3rd-31st and depending on what measurements you look at it was somewhere in the top 5-10 range for Jan snowfall since 1920. I measured ~18.5" at my place. Hadn't seen an epic pattern like that since living in DC in 2015. We also got REALLY lucky with the mid-month storm. Never got above freezing here during that event so we maintained the snowpack for about 4 weeks straight. Would've been nice to have another 1-2 storms to track, but I broke my thumb skiing late Jan so the season ended for me then and there... bring on severe season! Overall winter rating: B, short but sweet for western-central VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollenwiese Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 40 minutes ago, 87storms said: I’m putting this winter as a B-, saved in Frederick by two decent storms. This is a relative grade compared to the last 2 winters. It’s my first time living up here and I’m just glad it actually snowed. Realistically, it’s probably a C+. One more warning level snowfall and it’s a solid B. I've been here all my life of 42 years. There's a great deal of variation across the county due to the terrain, but I can't go above a C unless downtown sees a 6 inch storm. Hasn't happened yet this year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Definitely a D for my Yard. I'm in Washington County about 3 miles from the M/D line. 12" on the season. Average is about 28" The only reason I dont give an F is because I did have a 6" storm back in the middle of January. Was totally whiffed on the Jan. 3rd. Nickled and Dimmed my way to 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Definitely a D for my Yard. I'm in Washington County about 3 miles from the M/D line. 12" on the season. Average is about 28" The only reason I dont give an F is because I did have a 6" storm back in the middle of January. Was totally whiffed on the Jan. 3rd. Nickled and Dimmed my way to 12" I’d agree with this grade. Of course it’s not over yet lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Definitely a D for my Yard. I'm in Washington County about 3 miles from the M/D line. 12" on the season. Average is about 28" The only reason I dont give an F is because I did have a 6" storm back in the middle of January. Was totally whiffed on the Jan. 3rd. Nickled and Dimmed my way to 12" I'm with ya on that grade. 11.6" here. A march blizzard could change my mind but it has been frustrating so far. Starting to get the itch for some smallmouth fishing and it is still Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: What's happening to the early March highly touted big potential window? Here we go. Just shifted a few days. And a better look up top! This is the one. Careful, we might pop a March ‘93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 28 minutes ago, rollenwiese said: I've been here all my life of 42 years. There's a great deal of variation across the county due to the terrain, but I can't go above a C unless downtown sees a 6 inch storm. Hasn't happened yet this year though. yea, i expected more, but the last 2 winters were a joke in bethesda (where i used to live), so i was ok with this. i kinda feel like we might get one more storm...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Careful, we might pop a March ‘93 Jeez I hope not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Jeez I hope not! That event is the pinnacle of weather. Not everyone got to enjoy it but it’s the GOAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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