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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

No doubt at some point the storm will look good across all models. When it happens, start the thread. We can test the hypothesis about superstitions and jinxes.

I think its too soon simply because this is all we have to track at this point so there is no reason to start another thread.

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Just now, CAPE said:

It is with the initial piece but then there is yet another hammer coming down lol. Very volatile with the amped up ridge and the TPV shedding off vortices. More fun and game(changes) to come.

Thanks..thats what I was referring to with that SW vort and the initial NS vort

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

It is a phase but it's positively tilted. Given the ridge axis and the continued progressive nature of the pattern, I'm not sure what you are looking for is in the cards.

im looking for a 12 inch plus storm...this wont get it done.

 

ec-fast_z500a_us_8.png

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Sunday has a pretty interesting setup... definitely has some upside potential

one of the major features that we often need for a larger system to have a reasonable shot at delivering throughout the MA from VA to NYC is the presence of a 50/50 ULL to provide some confluence. we would definitely have that here. the TPV that's responsible for the +NAO is actually delivering significant confluence here, acting as a "fake" block

there's also a highly anomalous ridge that forms from the Rockies up into W Canada, which will allow for NS waves to dig and amplify as the SS wave moves across the country. it's not often you see a 2 sigma ridge building poleward like that

this is by no means a perfect setup, and it does need some work, but there is definitely heightened potential for a larger event here given the overall pattern

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5963200.thumb.png.4d695b0fcb1ee687dffaa5fc8ef0b8da.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-1645444800-1645920000-1646092800-20.thumb.gif.9119f5737eaf38423e11039963eb0864.gif

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