Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Nope. They are passive. They know how these go this time of year. Congrats Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: is the SE forum hopping yet? Nope, seems everyone has moved on to spring. Been getting my analysis from you all. Definitely one of the strongest storm signals of the season here and no one’s saying a word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: No doubt at some point the storm will look good across all models. When it happens, start the thread. We can test the hypothesis about superstitions and jinxes. I think its too soon simply because this is all we have to track at this point so there is no reason to start another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: It is with the initial piece but then there is yet another hammer coming down lol. Very volatile with the amped up ridge and the TPV shedding off vortices. More fun and game(changes) to come. Thanks..thats what I was referring to with that SW vort and the initial NS vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Nope. They are passive. Old hat, now, right? Bored with all the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Thanks..thats what I was referring to with that SW vort and the initial NS vort That type of interaction is generally want we want. A scoop not a squash, and it needs to happen far enough west. Always timing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 So the GFS, Ukie and Euro (a bit south) all have a storm for the same time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: So the GFS, Ukie and Euro (a bit south) all have a storm for the same time frame? Don't forget the ICONIC SUCK and CMC. They are on the suppressed side but its there. And the CMC ens is closer than the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Not yet. Wait until it looks good and gets everyone excited, which it is sure to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, Ji said: if thats a full phase...we are in big trouble then lol It is a phase but it's positively tilted. Given the ridge axis and the continued progressive nature of the pattern, I'm not sure what you are looking for is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Old hat, now, right? Bored with all the snow? The Raleigh crew is beaten down. Screw zone this winter. Hampton Roads/NE NC above climo (I average 3.5/year. Got about 12 so far) so it's house money for us now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It is a phase but it's positively tilted. Given the ridge axis and the continued progressive nature of the pattern, I'm not sure what you are looking for is in the cards. im looking for a 12 inch plus storm...this wont get it done. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 WB 12Z EPS, looking for the 6 inch plus storm…. NE snow potential from late week event. About 7 nice hits… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 I might hit both storms. Chasing #1 to Albany. Bare ground; fresh blanket of snow. Drive home to bare ground; storm #2 ; fresh blanket of snow? That might be more fun than I can handle. Exciting. Let’s do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: green excites me--till i look at chart and it says .10 lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That's not a bad look 6 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ji said: green excites me--till i look at chart and it says .10 lol. A tweak or 2 and we are good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: That's not a bad look 6 days out. I've got a goldfish-like memory but it's arguably the best look of the year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: A tweak or 2 and we are good. Rule of the year: Wait till Wednesday, lol Given how the season as gone, you gotta wonder if it gets better or is it another scrape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Sunday has a pretty interesting setup... definitely has some upside potential one of the major features that we often need for a larger system to have a reasonable shot at delivering throughout the MA from VA to NYC is the presence of a 50/50 ULL to provide some confluence. we would definitely have that here. the TPV that's responsible for the +NAO is actually delivering significant confluence here, acting as a "fake" block there's also a highly anomalous ridge that forms from the Rockies up into W Canada, which will allow for NS waves to dig and amplify as the SS wave moves across the country. it's not often you see a 2 sigma ridge building poleward like that this is by no means a perfect setup, and it does need some work, but there is definitely heightened potential for a larger event here given the overall pattern 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said: A win for the cats tail Same crap with every single storm. F this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Same crap with every single storm. this winter. I feel ya...kinda felt the same. Sometimes around here once a trend sets in for a season it's hard to get a different result. But we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Not much differences between 12z and 18z GFS so far at H5. Definitely not like the Euro so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 GFS still almost a carbon copy of 12z at 117 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 GFS actually gets the heavier precip further north than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Pretty decent run, all things considered. SFC is warm, but was at 12z also. So think 12z with a further north push of the heavies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS actually gets the heavier precip further north than 12z Yea southern/central into northern va getting nuked at 138. S/w looked healthier starting at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2-4 for winterwxlvr land, 4 to 6 for DC...6 to 8 just SE and over to CAPE land I think? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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