Ji Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 00z has been disastrous so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 00z has been disastrous so far Been, it’s a dumpster fire 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Yep, another weekend of ignoring the current snow fail to track potential the next weekend, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Can't catch any break 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 EPS looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 CMC ens reasonably close for 6+ days out GEFS continued improvement... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 The primary 'problem' we are seeing on the latest op runs is the advertised amplitude(and progression) of the western ridge. The image below is from the Euro- the ridge folds over(breaks) and that peels off a TPV lobe that crashes down and obliterates that southern vorticity ribbon. At this range the amplitude/progression/axis of the ridge and the degree (and location) of NS energy that drops in are likely not representative of the actual outcome. We need the NS to constructively interact with the southern energy, which mostly involves timing. There is a reason we rely more on the ensembles at this range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 WB 6Z EPS at Day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 ^Looks pretty similar to 0z overall. A bit more expansive with the precip at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: ^Looks pretty similar to 0z overall. A bit more expansive with the precip at that point. Agreed but not sure what brings this North. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 You need to squint hard to see the 27 February event at BWI on the NAEFS; a weak signal is seen at Norfolk, VA. The percent of EPS members giving DC 3" of snow/sleet/freezing rain(10:1) through 12 UT March 2 has equalled 22, 14, 26, 20, and 18% over the last 5 cycles (22% value is from 00 UT last evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 56 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agreed but not sure what brings this North. You sure the guidance has the ridge placement and amplitude correct 6+ days out? How about the timing and depth of the NS energy dropping southward? Uncertainty is the answer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: You sure the guidance has the ridge placement and amplitude correct 6+ days out? How about the timing and depth of the NS energy dropping southward? Uncertainty is the answer. You’ve been making a bunch of good posts dude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You’ve been making a bunch of good posts dude. lol thanks. I do my best. I don't always have the time, but when I do and there is something trackable, I try to do a bit more analysis. Hopefully some folks get something out of it, and I don't make a fool of myself in the process. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol thanks. I do my best. I don't always have the time, but when I do and there is something trackable, I try to do a bit more analysis. Hopefully some folks get something out of it, and I don't make a fool of myself in the process. Appreciate Ya 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 12z GFS- Our shortwave of interest is more distinct/stronger with higher h5 heights out in front. NS coming in. Lets see if we phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Gfs is a huge improvement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 It'ssss baaaaaaack. CAPE storm is a nice hit on the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Gets moderate/heavy snow to us. The H5 improvement was so good even I could tell it was 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 NS digs in way farther west and helps lift @CAPE storm northward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It'ssss baaaaaaack Jaws III in 3D? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4-6. SOLD. Keep it there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, Scraff said: Jaws III in 3D? Might be. I need a few solid consistent runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It'ssss baaaaaaack. CAPE storm is a nice hit on the GFS The changes were evident pretty early- More separation from the NS energy associated with the Thursday-Friday storm, so our shortwave was sharper/ wester, and better interaction with the next NS piece dropping in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Probably some rocking upslope with that northern stream out @nj2va's and @jonjon's places. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The changes were evident pretty early- More separation from the NS energy associated with the Thursday-Friday storm, so our shortwave was sharper/ wester, and better interaction with the next NS piece dropping in. You were on this period early and I was a believer. F the Thursday noise, I'm ready to put my chips in for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Might be. I need a few solid consistent runs. You need to show up earlier for these models runs- I am not a PbP guy, more of a color commentator. I promise I won't be a Romo and talk all over you though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: You need to show up earlier for these models runs- I am not a PbP guy, more of a color commentator. I promise I won't be a Romo and talk all over you though. I gotcha dude. I was gonna wait until we got closer in, but I'll start with 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You were on this period early and I was a believer. F the Thursday noise, I'm ready to put my chips in for this one. I always thought the late week deal was too soon. Once it goes by we have the cold coming in, and the Euro I think was the first I noticed depicting some trailing energy a day or so later. That was the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Snowcover enhanced, but damn that's a cold day for next Monday on the GFS. Especially for Feb 28. Low 10s for lows, highs low 20s for metro corridors, maybe upper 10s for N/W places. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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