WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: On his afternoon video, JB says it looks like a blizzard for the MA early next week followed with record cold…. He’s never wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: He’s never wrong I think it is the first time he has been bullish for the MA this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 WB 18Z GEFS v EPS for our early March blizzard at Day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 33 minutes ago, Weather Will said: On his afternoon video, JB says it looks like a blizzard for the MA early next week followed with record cold…. Change that to a northeast blizzard with a cirrus flizzard in the MA and ya might have something...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Change that to a northeast blizzard with a cirrus flizzard in the MA and ya might have something...lol When JB speaks its over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Latest WB GEFS extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: A couple things- an atmospheric block literally blocks the flow- slows it down and kinks it, giving storms more of an opportunity to track underneath and up the coast instead of progressing off to the east. When we get a classic block in the NA, it is a west based -NAO with anomalously high heights across Davis Strait/Baffin, and that is usually accompanied by a quasi stationary vortex (50-50 low) off of the Canadian Maritimes. So we have a low to our NE and we end up with HP to our N/NW (no GL low!) which is exactly what we want to keep cold air in place as storms approach from the SW. In the current pattern those HP areas tend to slide off the coast and turn the flow more easterly off the Atlantic, and getting a coastal low to track in the right spot for snow is more of a thread the needle deal. As we have seen this winter when we do have a cold trough in place over the east, the tendency is for storms to form further off shore. Ah I see--That makes more sense now. Thanks for the blocking tutorial And man I can't wait to see that blocking (WITH cold) again! When did we see that last? 2016? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Icon sucks. It moved towards the GFS at h5. Northern sw is more out in front crushing heights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Latest WB GEFS extended That won’t get it done in March. I should have listened to the moose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 00z has been disastrous so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 00z has been disastrous so far Been, it’s a dumpster fire 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Yep, another weekend of ignoring the current snow fail to track potential the next weekend, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Can't catch any break 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 EPS looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 CMC ens reasonably close for 6+ days out GEFS continued improvement... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 The primary 'problem' we are seeing on the latest op runs is the advertised amplitude(and progression) of the western ridge. The image below is from the Euro- the ridge folds over(breaks) and that peels off a TPV lobe that crashes down and obliterates that southern vorticity ribbon. At this range the amplitude/progression/axis of the ridge and the degree (and location) of NS energy that drops in are likely not representative of the actual outcome. We need the NS to constructively interact with the southern energy, which mostly involves timing. There is a reason we rely more on the ensembles at this range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 WB 6Z EPS at Day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 ^Looks pretty similar to 0z overall. A bit more expansive with the precip at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: ^Looks pretty similar to 0z overall. A bit more expansive with the precip at that point. Agreed but not sure what brings this North. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 You need to squint hard to see the 27 February event at BWI on the NAEFS; a weak signal is seen at Norfolk, VA. The percent of EPS members giving DC 3" of snow/sleet/freezing rain(10:1) through 12 UT March 2 has equalled 22, 14, 26, 20, and 18% over the last 5 cycles (22% value is from 00 UT last evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 56 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agreed but not sure what brings this North. You sure the guidance has the ridge placement and amplitude correct 6+ days out? How about the timing and depth of the NS energy dropping southward? Uncertainty is the answer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: You sure the guidance has the ridge placement and amplitude correct 6+ days out? How about the timing and depth of the NS energy dropping southward? Uncertainty is the answer. You’ve been making a bunch of good posts dude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You’ve been making a bunch of good posts dude. lol thanks. I do my best. I don't always have the time, but when I do and there is something trackable, I try to do a bit more analysis. Hopefully some folks get something out of it, and I don't make a fool of myself in the process. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol thanks. I do my best. I don't always have the time, but when I do and there is something trackable, I try to do a bit more analysis. Hopefully some folks get something out of it, and I don't make a fool of myself in the process. Appreciate Ya 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 12z GFS- Our shortwave of interest is more distinct/stronger with higher h5 heights out in front. NS coming in. Lets see if we phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Gfs is a huge improvement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 It'ssss baaaaaaack. CAPE storm is a nice hit on the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Gets moderate/heavy snow to us. The H5 improvement was so good even I could tell it was 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 NS digs in way farther west and helps lift @CAPE storm northward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It'ssss baaaaaaack Jaws III in 3D? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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