yoda Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It was pretty close to something big. Brings the NS energy in behind with some snow showers and then COLD. @nj2va would not be pleased lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It was pretty close to something big. Brings the NS energy in behind with some snow showers and then COLD. Yup, that's why I made the comment when I was doing a sketch pbp. I almost pulled out Jaws at 162..it had the look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup, that's why I made the comment when I was doing a sketch pbp. I almost pulled out Jaws at 162..it had the look Jaws died in 1975 dude. There’s your problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Joe Bastardi has an interesting theory for when the MJO goes into the null phase, the result is similar to what the MJO phase was previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 12z EPS is souther than 0z, but not crushed/nonexistent like the GEFS. Canadian ens mean has a storm too but it is further south than the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: 12z EPS is souther than 0z, but not crushed/nonexistent like the GEFS. Canadian mean has a storm too but it is further south than the EPS. So... right where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, yoda said: So... right where we want it Not bad at this juncture. Ask me how worried I am about the GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, yoda said: So... right where we want it Not this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not this year Early March can produce different outcomes than say early Jan even if the state of the drivers largely remain the same. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 WB 12Z EPS thru 10 days continues the snow hole trend… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS thru 10 days continues the snow hole trend… But the 0z run looked like this and you thought it was ok. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: But the 0z run looked like this and you thought it was ok. CLOSE THE BLINDS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Oz had a few flush hits, fewer at 12z. 35 minutes ago, CAPE said: But the 0z run looked like this and you thought it was ok. Fewer flush hits at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Does the gfs look better upstairs at the h7 or g5 or whatever? because the surface is still no good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 18z GFS just made a big move toward the CAPE storm, or someone's storm not sure who claimed it, the one on the 27th/28th. Sorry if I credited the wrong storm owner/name dubber person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 It's a decent step, fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The CAPE Verde storm does look better at h5 on HH Gfs Ninjd by Wig The northern stream still comes down and crushes everything including our dreams lol. That northern stream piece needs to change If we have any hope of something gaining latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The northern stream still comes down and crushes everything including our dreams lol. That northern stream piece needs to change If we have any hope of something gaining latitude. Yep. Kinda frustrating to see the same thing ruin us all winter...Now I know I ain't wrong when I say that that IS a Nina thing! C'mon, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yep. Kinda frustrating to see the same thing ruin us all winter...Now I know I ain't wrong when I say that that IS a Nina thing! C'mon, lol Don't know if it's a Nina thing but I think this Is always a concern with no nao help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yep. Kinda frustrating to see the same thing ruin us all winter...Now I know I ain't wrong when I say that that IS a Nina thing! C'mon, lol What's really frustrating is when we watch areas north of us get crushed on Thursday/Friday and then watch the wave get crushed south of us on Sunday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The CAPE Verde storm does look better at h5 on HH Gfs Ninjd by Wig That interaction needs to take place a bit further west like the Euro, which was pretty close to something bigger. Ridge axis a tad too far east on the GFS. Overall a pretty radical set up with the amped up look. Nice potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What's really frustrating is when we watch areas north of us get crushed on Thursday/Friday and then watch the wave get crushed south of us on Sunday. Although to be fair to them areas north/northwest have been skunked too...lol I thought post PD they'd get to make up some ground with systems like that one! But yeah...I was hoping we'd get less squashyness as wavelengths got shorter. I mean we still could...we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: That interaction needs to take place a bit further west like the Euro, which was pretty close to something bigger. Ridge axis a tad too far east on the GFS. Overall a pretty radical set up with the amped up look. Nice potential. Ridge axis just too far displaced to the East has been a recurring theme with many storms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Don't know if it's a Nina thing but I think this Is always a concern with no nao help. Ah okay. So that block would...push the interaction further west so it happens sooner? (Now see, this is where a video with a visual would help so novices can see exactly how things interact) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ridge axis just too far displaced to the East has been a recurring theme with many storms this winter. The perils of a progressive pattern. Timing has to be impeccable. This is a primary reason why we want a blocking regime. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 HH GEFS is significantly better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ah okay. So that block would...push the interaction further west so it happens sooner? (Now see, this is where a video with a visual would help so novices can see exactly how things interact) Or there wouldn't be any northern sw at all pressing down over the top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, Chris78 said: Or there wouldn't be any northern sw at all pressing down over the top Because it couldn't get there...because of the block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Because it couldn't get there...because of the block? A couple things- an atmospheric block literally blocks the flow- slows it down and kinks it, giving storms more of an opportunity to track underneath and up the coast instead of progressing off to the east. When we get a classic block in the NA, it is a west based -NAO with anomalously high heights across Davis Strait/Baffin, and that is usually accompanied by a quasi stationary vortex (50-50 low) off of the Canadian Maritimes. So we have a low to our NE and we end up with HP to our N/NW (no GL low!) which is exactly what we want to keep cold air in place as storms approach from the SW. In the current pattern those HP areas tend to slide off the coast and turn the flow more easterly off the Atlantic, and getting a coastal low to track in the right spot for snow is more of a thread the needle deal. As we have seen this winter when we do have a cold trough in place over the east, the tendency is for storms to form further off shore. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 On his afternoon video, JB says it looks like a blizzard for the MA early next week followed with record cold…. 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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