stormtracker Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, StormyClearweather said: 18Z GFS remains wintry for the Thu PM/Fri period. Pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Snippet from Mount Holly on the late week event. Sounds reasonable to me. Surface high pressure is expected to nose into our area from the northwest on north on Thursday. However, our next weather system should already be approaching from the southwest on Thursday. Low pressure is forecast to be developing in the lower Mississippi River Valley and the Tennessee River on Thursday. The circulation around the high to our north and the low well to our southwest should result in a developing easterly flow in our region on Thursday. We should see cloudy conditions at that time along with an increasing chance of precipitation. With some cold air in place, a light wintry mix is possible, mainly in eastern Pennsylvania, and in northern and central New Jersey, with light rain in areas to the south. The low is forecast to pass through or near our region on Friday morning as it continues to move northeastward and strengthen. Since the exact track of the low remains uncertain at this point, so does the precipitation type forecast. For now, we will paint it as a wintry mix to the northwest of the Interstate 95 Corridor for Thursday night into Friday, and mainly rain to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Pass Dw. GFS is not going to be correct. Damn did I just sound like DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 32 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The biggest change I've seen the past couple days for the Thursday/ Friday storm is the Euro has trended much less amped with slp . Hopefully that continues and a Gfs type solution is close to reality. Many have punted because they think it's not going to be any or all snow and that's ok but I'm definitely excited to track this mixed potential. Its winter If I could get some front end snow then a sleet-fest I might be more interested. Outside of the GFS, the other guidance is not suggestive of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 I am right about at 20" and playing with house money here. I can afford to be a winter precip snob. Give me 3-6 of cold powder or a 10" paste bomb. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I am right about at 20" and playing with house money here. I can afford to be a winter precip snob. Give me 3-6 of cold powder or a 10" paste bomb. Much better shape than me. 12" on the season. Average is about 28 Gonna be a dud of a winter for my area unless we get something more significant in the next 4 weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Much better shape than me. 12" on the season. Average is about 28 Gonna be a dud of a winter for my area unless we get something more significant in the next 4 weeks. WDI for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Anybody got 18z EPS for Thursday/Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 8 hours ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS continues with the crazy parade of storms tracking along the boundary, but to our north. This post was in error lol. I was comparing the 6z and 12z, and thought I was looking at the 12z. Suffice to say the 12z run was quite different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Chasin ghosts. Sun feels strong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Rvarookie said: Chasin ghosts. Sun feels strong I noticed the daylilies starting to emerge today. Despite any cold this time of year, the longer days/ stronger sun is undeniable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 33 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Anybody got 18z EPS for Thursday/Friday? Looks similar to 12z. Less snow in our region though, which was kinda tough to do lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Snippet from Mount Holly on the late week event. Sounds reasonable to me. Surface high pressure is expected to nose into our area from the northwest on north on Thursday. However, our next weather system should already be approaching from the southwest on Thursday. Low pressure is forecast to be developing in the lower Mississippi River Valley and the Tennessee River on Thursday. The circulation around the high to our north and the low well to our southwest should result in a developing easterly flow in our region on Thursday. We should see cloudy conditions at that time along with an increasing chance of precipitation. With some cold air in place, a light wintry mix is possible, mainly in eastern Pennsylvania, and in northern and central New Jersey, with light rain in areas to the south. The low is forecast to pass through or near our region on Friday morning as it continues to move northeastward and strengthen. Since the exact track of the low remains uncertain at this point, so does the precipitation type forecast. For now, we will paint it as a wintry mix to the northwest of the Interstate 95 Corridor for Thursday night into Friday, and mainly rain to the southeast. Translation “no we don’t believe the gfs” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Alright so I Googled and couldn't quite find the answer to what may be considered a silly question: Does sleet get added into the official measurement of snowfall, or do they not count it at all since it's, well, not snow? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 The ICON sucks but it looked to be setting up something good at the end of the run. Real nice look for the Sunday /Monday deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Gfs seems warmer. Always go with least winter robust model solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 We needed 100 mile south shift and it shifted north 75 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Gfs sucks. This winter sucks. Every trend is the exact opposite of what we need. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs seems warmer. Always go with least winter robust model solution 10 minutes ago, Ji said: We needed 100 mile south shift and it shifted north 75 miles 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs sucks. This winter sucks. Every trend is the exact opposite of what we need. God's sake man! Your posts are about the most childish and most devoid of any useful content in here, I swear! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Storm two needed a north shift and it trended south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Storm two needed a north shift and it trended south Storm two suffered the same fate as the other NS squashed waves this season! I'll be glad to be rid of that 6-lane NS highway after this winter, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Euro is a mess for the CAPE storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 WB 6Z GFS ice storm for Th. Night/ Friday am followed by glacier Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Model of Choice on overnight runs is the WB 0Z Euro Control at Day 8. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodelwayne01 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Model of Choice on overnight runs is the WB 0Z Euro Control at Day 8. LoDel snow. I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 All 3 globals are depicting pretty extreme amplification of the western ridge next weekend, causing the TPV to shed a lobe that produces a digging trough. Both the CMC and GFS literally drop the hammer on top of the southern wave, while the timing and orientation of the trough on the EURO allows (positive) interaction with the wave further west, thus not crushing it to oblivion. Long way to go before we know how this unfolds. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Not a bad signal for 7 days out on the EPS. Mean snowfall for this period is 2" across VA/MD/DE, more in the western highlands ofc. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Someone should start a thread for the late week slop event. For those who buy into superstition and mojo and whatnot, it could only help at this point lol. It would also declutter this thread. @WxUSAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Someone should start a thread for the late week slop event. For those who buy into superstition and mojo and whatnot, it could only help at this point lol. It would also declutter this thread. @WxUSAF No. Not until 12z Tuesday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Model of Choice on overnight runs is the WB 0Z Euro Control at Day 8. Sorry, 00z EPS member #18 is the correct choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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