North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: We will need a 100 mile south shift for the first storm...it will go 75 miles more north then we will need a 100 mile north shift for the 2nd storm and it will go 75 miles more south this is actually the ground truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS….several big hits that would make everyone happy! Can you do the individuals through 168 and 240? I’m not interested in beyond day ten. Really not beyond day 7. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: this is actually the ground truth Well….then there is the control…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can you do the individuals through 168 and 240? I’m not interested in beyond day ten. Really not beyond day 7. Thanks WB 12Z EPS 168, slim pickings for storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 WB 240 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 WB 12Z EPS heart of the cold centered March 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 19, 2022 Author Share Posted February 19, 2022 I think this is encouraging for some more winter. The Euro is a little south and the GFS is a little north. Hopefully they can meet in the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Kill me now. Right gd now I see how this is going down. Wont be any bunnies left in Smithsburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS 168, slim pickings for storm 1 Don’t think anyone expects much snow with storm one…the question is does the ensembles support more wintry precip than the OP did today or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Latest from Sterling NWS….keep tracking Th. and Friday. Heading into the latter portions of the work week, a great deal of uncertainty looms regarding the temperature and precipitation forecast. The mentioned cold front remains over the Carolinas while the Mid-Atlantic becomes wedged in as high pressure builds to the north and northwest. As a result, Thursday`s temperatures drop back into the upper 30s to low 40s. Ensemble temperature plots depict quite a bit of spread, particularly on the higher end of the spectrum. As the strong upper trough exits the Four Corners and migrates toward the Ohio Valley, modest ascent ahead of this feature will drive additional rounds of precipitation. Depending on the timing and thermal profiles, some of this may be wintry in nature. Given the stout surface high to the north, this potential for wintry precipitation appears reasonable as shown by the guidance. As southerly warm advection will override the boundary, freezing rain would be a concern in this pattern. However, a number of details need to be resolved first. The entire system eventually exits some time on Friday with possible mountain snow showers on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Gfs is a sleet bomb northern md. Like 2” of hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 18Z GFS remains wintry for the Thu PM/Fri period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 I'm still pretty new to this area, but isn't CAD generally underdone at this range? Or maybe not since this is not the traditional CAD look? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: 18Z GFS remains wintry for the Thu PM/Fri period. Yeah, even taking the ice accumulation with a huge grain of salt and all, it's a real sleet bomb a bit north of DC and potentially significant ice within the metro area. From what I saw, temperatures around DCA get maybe a bit above freezing, but still at or below that in the NW suburbs and farther out. Don't mean to parse such details at this time, but just what it shows. Looks like after 18Z Friday temperatures drop a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: I'm still pretty new to this area, but isn't CAD generally underdone at this range? Or maybe not since this is not the traditional CAD look? Oh I think it's a traditional CAD situation with that big, cold high to the north pressing in. I know the GFS maybe doesn't handle details of that, especially at this range, yet it's still showing quite the signature. But offsetting that is whether the GFS is possibly overdoing the cold push. Those details remain to be determined, I guess. But if it's pretty well correct in handling the synoptic situation, it could be an ugly ice event (but quite interesting, to be sure!!). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: 18Z GFS remains wintry for the Thu PM/Fri period. 3” Of sleet haha terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: 3” Of sleet haha terrible 3" of sleet, and if you take the GFS verbatim it would turn into a block of ice that night! I know several in here don't care for sleet or ice, but really that's all we're looking at here for this event in terms of wintry weather. It doesn't really look like we'll get any snow from this. Personally, in that case, I'd prefer a more "interesting" ice/sleet event over a dull, cold rain. But that's just me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 The "CAPE storm" looks like it slides off to the southeast for that Monday. But the signal is still there for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: 3" of sleet, and if you take the GFS verbatim it would turn into a block of ice that night! I know several in here don't care for sleet or ice, but really that's all we're looking at here for this event in terms of wintry weather. It doesn't really look like we'll get any snow from this. Personally, in that case, I'd prefer a more "interesting" ice/sleet event over a dull, cold rain. But that's just me. The VD sleet storm of 07 if that’s the right year was awful. Hours upon hours of wind driven sleet. Couldn’t even sleep that night cause the sleet was pounding my window like a damn power washer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: The "CAPE storm" looks like it slides off to the southeast for that Monday. But the signal is still there for what it's worth. The southern vorticity is an elongated strung out mess this run, with energy left behind, and the NS comes in like a wrecking ball. One of many possible outcomes that will be depicted over the next several days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: The southern vorticity is an elongated strung out mess this run, with energy left behind, and the NS comes in like a wrecking ball. One of many possible outcomes that will be depicted over the next several days. Oh the energy left behind with NS wrecking ball syndrome of this winter...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: The southern vorticity is an elongated strung out mess this run, with energy left behind, and the NS comes in like a wrecking ball. One of many possible outcomes that will be depicted over the next several days. Yup. We'll see probably several outcomes in the upcoming week. And see if it actually turns into anything for us. But it is worth keeping an eye on like you said earlier and could be one of those "sneaky" events that we weren't much looking at before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 and then we get this lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 which results in this at the surface. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 GFS op runs at range are usually entertaining. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: and then we get this lol I was just looking at that. Right now, as depicted, it's just a frontal passage in this area. That energy in the southeast gets pushed out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Surface temp run to run change Do you have the surface p-type panels? Would like to see how many show any ice storm. Sort of hard to tell with just the snowfall maps if they are just ice or rain for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Thanks so much for always posting all of this stuff. Looks like most have some form of frozen too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Guess this is what happens when an inch of (forecast) freezing rain is assumed to be snow. See earlier posts for a more clear but still fuzzy picture of what we may face if the cold-bias of the GFS disappears between now and next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Wrt the Feb 27- March 1 period, HH GEFS seems to have a few subsets among the members- one brings energy out sooner and has as storm for Sunday into Monday, and most of that group(around 10) has a wave but keeps it suppressed. There are 2 or 3 nice hits for our area. The second subset seems to dampen the initial wave and has a stronger one a day or so later. There are 5 hits for the region in that group, 3 look like significant snow events, the other 2 are snow/mix to rain. The other group suggests snow showers or not much of anything. Upshot is this is a period to keep an eye on, and there is a pretty solid signal on the guidance given this is 8+ days out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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