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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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5 hours ago, Ji said:

There is nothing showing up in capes march 1 to 7 window

I mentioned yesterday on the 12z Euro run that there was some trailing energy being left behind from the late week storm. Seeing that on the GFS now too. Next Sunday- Monday is  a sneaky period to watch for something.

1645984800-oOXBb1I9r58.png

As for the first week in March, check out the 6z GFS. It has a parade of storms but as depicted the boundary is too far north.

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I mentioned this yesterday on the 12z Euro run that there was some trailing energy being left behind from the late week storm. Seeing that on the GFS now too. Next Sunday- Monday is  a sneaky period to watch for something.

1645984800-oOXBb1I9r58.png

As for the first week in March, check out the 6z GFS. It has a parade of storms but as depicted the boundary is too far north.

I think the prospects of a good wintry period over the course of the next month are good. 
 

Ji said go big or go home. Not sure why he didn’t just go home.

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37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think the prospects of a good wintry period over the course of the next month are good. 
 

I think so, but staying focused on the next 2 weeks, we have the late week deal that you might be more interested in than me, the possible "sneaky" little wave for next Sunday, and then the window around March 2nd looks to hold some potential for a coastal. Seeing hints on both the GEFS and EPS. H5 certainly has that look-

1646179200-sm3nInBn1qo.png

1646157600-05DsaQMdtds.png

 

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14 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Magic gravity of the 500mb High to that Alert Canada region (our highest snowfall correlation)

I can't make heads or tails of what you're trying to depict here. I've read it three times and am perplexed at what words you may have left out. What the hell is going on here?

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9 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Nothing to hold it in place. Wish I could believe the gfs. Cmc isn't really close to frozen and neither was the 12z euro.

Gfs cold bias at Play most likely.

Hope I'm dead wrong. 

That look is generally supportive of a period frozen on the front end, and probably some sleet/zr (for interior areas), then rain. Question is exactly where? At this point places to our north are favored for frozen, but still some time for adjustments. The setup doesn't excite me at all given my location, and I have no interest in ice/sleet.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That look is generally supportive of a period frozen on the front end, and probably some sleet/zr (for interior areas), then rain. Question is exactly where? At this point places to our north are favored for frozen, but still some time for adjustments. The setup doesn't excite me at all given my location, and I have no interest in ice/sleet.

With how the GFS performed last weekend and with the non ice storm a couple weeks ago it definitely gives me pause for next Friday .

He'll the GFS had a major ice storm for my area less than 48 hours prior to the start of the event In regards to the ice storm that never happened a few weeks back.

I know the Euro does have some front end ice and my area can do better with those west tracking systems into CAD.

With the GFS bias of pushing cold to far south I'm just skeptical. 

On the other hand it does look pretty good  north of us in regards to cold.

Hope I'm dead wrong and we all get smoked.

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21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That look is generally supportive of a period frozen on the front end, and probably some sleet/zr (for interior areas), then rain. Question is exactly where? At this point places to our north are favored for frozen, but still some time for adjustments. The setup doesn't excite me at all given my location, and I have no interest in ice/sleet.

Just looked at last night's euro a little closer. 

Our best shot at Snow/frozen is probably with that front runner piece for earlier on Thursday.

 

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44 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I am sitting at the BMW dealer waiting for them to do the oil change and then come back and tell me how much money they want to do $ 100000….of other stuff.  I am bored.

Anytime you go to these high end dealerships you need to take your own advice and keep expectations to a minimum. :lol:

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Let's cut the bs...is it gonna snow or not?  Math is fun, though.  Was recently trying to figure out why we drop a zero when doing long division of fractions.  Not sure it was ever really taught in school, or I was just not paying attention (possibly dreaming of making the nba).  Hint: cross multiplying.  Re how it relates to the weather.  Trig is a good start...probably some asymptotic functions thrown in as well to remind us of downsloping, low level warm air intrusion, and dry slots.

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