IronTy Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: y = A sin(B(x + C)) + D The amplitude and period of the ups and the downs vary depending on the amount of snow or lack there of for any particular model cycle. That's lame, your equation doesn't include dels, curls or differentials. I can help you there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 33 minutes ago, CAPE said: It has generally been more erratic than typical. Maybe it is about to get back on a hot streak. Life was easier when the GFS was always more progressive and the euro was always amped/NW. They had to go and upgrade everything and confuse the s 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Looking at all of the ensembles today at WB 12Z the highest snow mean is centered in central NY to central PA. Hopefully we will see a shift southward over the next week, but everyone should keep their expectations in check…I will post 12Z tomorrow for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32º Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, IronTy said: That's lame, your equation doesn't include dels, curls or differentials. I can help you there. It also needs at least one factorial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Looking at all of the ensembles today at WB 12Z the highest snow mean is centered in central NY to central PA. Hopefully we will see a shift southward over the next week, but everyone should keep their expectations in check…I will post 12Z tomorrow for comparison. Thanks William. Ill try to lower my sky high expectations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: y = A sin(B(x + C)) + D The amplitude and period of the ups and the downs vary depending on the amount of snow or lack there of for any particular model cycle. I was thinking a cosine graph with a negative leading coefficient so that we start low (preseason debs), then progress to the pinnacle only to be let down right in the middle of winter progressing to renewed enthusiastic right as winter ends (stupid fantasy) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I was thinking a cosine graph with a negative leading coefficient so that we start low (preseason debs), then progress to the pinnacle only to be let down right in the middle of winter progressing to renewed enthusiastic right as winter ends (stupid fantasy) lol In other words….that’s how we roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, Ji said: 53 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Looking at all of the ensembles today at WB 12Z the highest snow mean is centered in central NY to central PA. Hopefully we will see a shift southward over the next week, but everyone should keep their expectations in check…I will post 12Z tomorrow for comparison. Thanks William. Ill try to lower my sky high expectations After President’s Day, the inevitable March to spring accelerates. I am definitely in the camp that says give me a 6 inch plus storm or let’s just go to Spring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, IronTy said: That's lame, your equation doesn't include dels, curls or differentials. I can help you there. Winter is over. Why are you posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 47 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Winter is over. Why are you posting? I'm confused. Is there a forum rule that says posting is only allowed in winter? Alas I checked and nope there isn't. So GFY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, 32º said: It also needs at least one factorial At least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, IronTy said: I'm confused. Is there a forum rule that says posting is only allowed in winter? Alas I checked and nope there isn't. So GFY. Oh you’re confused alright. Of that, I have no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, IronTy said: I'm confused. Is there a forum rule that says posting is only allowed in winter? Alas I checked and nope there isn't. So GFY. A word of advice: Don't use that first sentence...lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Ji said: 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Looking at all of the ensembles today at WB 12Z the highest snow mean is centered in central NY to central PA. Hopefully we will see a shift southward over the next week, but everyone should keep their expectations in check…I will post 12Z tomorrow for comparison. Thanks William. Ill try to lower my sky high expectations Hogwash.. Weather Won't will come through 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 So... No comments on the 00Z GFS? Still looks like an icy mess for the most part with a lot of precip while 2m temps are below freezing. DC area goes above freezing sometime after 18Z Friday but in the mid 30s or so. Precip moves out after 00Z and temps cool again. Just took a quick glance but that's kinda how it looks. Will let others with more insight chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: So... No comments on the 00Z GFS? Still looks like an icy mess for the most part with a lot of precip while 2m temps are below freezing. DC area goes above freezing sometime after 18Z Friday but in the mid 30s or so. Precip moves out after 00Z and temps cool again. Just took a quick glance but that's kinda how it looks. Will let others with more insight chime in. Here is the 0z GFS snow, sleet & freezing rain through next Saturday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1042H to the north with a cutter…I don’t know man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: 1042H to the north with a cutter…I don’t know man Nothing to hold it in place. Wish I could believe the gfs. Cmc isn't really close to frozen and neither was the 12z euro. Gfs cold bias at Play most likely. Hope I'm dead wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Nothing to hold it in place. Wish I could believe the gfs. Cmc isn't really close to frozen and neither was the 12z euro. Gfs cold bias at Play most likely. Hope I'm dead wrong. Devil in the details by end of weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Nothing to hold it in place. Wish I could believe the gfs. Cmc isn't really close to frozen and neither was the 12z euro. Gfs cold bias at Play most likely. Hope I'm dead wrong. GFS has been really good this winter Let's get this colder so we all win 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 There is nothing showing up in capes march 1 to 7 window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 WB 0Z EURO…..this run follows GFS mixed event for Th. -Fri. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 hours ago, Ji said: There is nothing showing up in capes march 1 to 7 window WB OZ EPS compared to 12Z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 WB 6Z GFS for Th-Fri 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 11 hours ago, IronTy said: That's lame, your equation doesn't include dels, curls or differentials. I can help you there. "simple equation for a sine wave" But go ahead and be pedantic. No help needed when it comes to technical subjects. Thanks for the offer though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 5 hours ago, Ji said: There is nothing showing up in capes march 1 to 7 window I mentioned yesterday on the 12z Euro run that there was some trailing energy being left behind from the late week storm. Seeing that on the GFS now too. Next Sunday- Monday is a sneaky period to watch for something. As for the first week in March, check out the 6z GFS. It has a parade of storms but as depicted the boundary is too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: I mentioned this yesterday on the 12z Euro run that there was some trailing energy being left behind from the late week storm. Seeing that on the GFS now too. Next Sunday- Monday is a sneaky period to watch for something. As for the first week in March, check out the 6z GFS. It has a parade of storms but as depicted the boundary is too far north. I think the prospects of a good wintry period over the course of the next month are good. Ji said go big or go home. Not sure why he didn’t just go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think the prospects of a good wintry period over the course of the next month are good. I think so, but staying focused on the next 2 weeks, we have the late week deal that you might be more interested in than me, the possible "sneaky" little wave for next Sunday, and then the window around March 2nd looks to hold some potential for a coastal. Seeing hints on both the GEFS and EPS. H5 certainly has that look- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS for Th-Fri Look at the precip. Need to somehow get this thing cold enough for a powder event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 52 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ji said go big or go home. Not sure why he didn’t just go home. Ji wants instant gratification, and it only comes from looking at op runs, even 10 days out. Go blue or go home lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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