Ravens94 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 It's so warm on the drive from obx truck says 74. Dreading the other side of the front. Update just hit the front amazing temp fall 75 to 62 in seconds 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 12z Gefs much more compressed with heights compared to 0z . Should be some nice hits in the individuals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: These types of storms like the gfs is showing don't really need a carving setup in advance. Those are when cold approaches from the west. When something is pressing on top, it can bully its way down as cold air is very dense and confluence keeps pushing and pushing. It's completely reasonable to entertain the possibility of winning next weekend as it's not a huge stretch. That said, I wish we lived further north. Now I Googled and couldn't find it, so I'll ask: Could you clarify what you mean by a "carving setup"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 CMC stuck at 156 but slides precip shield so far south that we are barely on the north end getting some light snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, Scraff said: We celebrate until Dr No arrives. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: CMC stuck at 156 but slides precip shield so far south that we are barely on the north end getting some light snow lol....hopefully this too suppressed bs we have seen all winter wont be a factor in Late Feb/early march 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: CMC stuck at 156 but slides precip shield so far south that we are barely on the north end getting some light snow Almost looks like the two disturbances in the southwest mess with each other, has a storm afterwards but its a weak costal low that is purely an ice to rain setup. They almost shear each other out and bring the storms north? Seems like an odd outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: lol....hopefully this too suppressed bs we have seen all winter wont be a factor in Late Feb/early march It moved...and it sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: CMC stuck at 156 but slides precip shield so far south that we are barely on the north end getting some light snow Again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 I’d worry about the CMC. It’s a reliable model. Right behind the UKIE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 I don't remove the bubbler and put the water pump back into my pond unless I'm confident the winter is basically over. And I put the pump back in the pond yesterday. Haven't removed the bubbler just to hedge a bit but I'm pretty confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Just now, IronTy said: I don't remove the bubbler and put the water pump back into my pond unless I'm confident the winter is basically over. And I put the pump back in the pond yesterday. Haven't removed the bubbler just to hedge a bit but I'm pretty confident. I agree. Winter is over for you 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I agree. Winter is over for you It's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 It would appear that it's the GFS/CMC verse Euro/ICON for next week's threat. GFS camp has two weaker waves come at us. EURO/ICON blow up one condensed cutter that wreck any chance of frozen whatsoever for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 12z Euro has a more substantial piece of trailing energy that gets left behind after the next Friday(rain) event. Not sure if anything will come of it this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: These types of storms like the gfs is showing don't really need a carving setup in advance. Those are when cold approaches from the west. When something is pressing on top, it can bully its way down as cold air is very dense and confluence keeps pushing and pushing. It's completely reasonable to entertain the possibility of winning next weekend as it's not a huge stretch. That said, I wish we lived further north. Yeah, but then we'd have to live further north. Rooting for the GFS. It has consistently been leading the other models wrt sniffing out frozen chances imby this winter. Granted, it will say 12" to 20" and the other models will say little to nothing, and then it will come back down off its sugar high and show realistic solutions that do verify with like 4"-8". I guess technically, a model spitting out 0" is closer to a snow of 4" than a model depicting 12", but I will take the model showing a chance of frozen that verifies over models showing nothing. In this sense, the GFS has kicked the Euro's butt this year for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Euro looked like it made a move towards the Gfs at h5 . I thought so also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Winter is not cancelled at least until mid April. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, brentrich said: Winter is not cancelled at least until mid April. You don’t know understand. This place is a roller coaster of emotion. It’s “over” is cyclical. I’ve even created an equation to model it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You don’t know understand. This place is a roller coaster of emotion. It’s “over” is cyclical. I’ve even created an equation to model it. y = A sin(B(x + C)) + D The amplitude and period of the ups and the downs vary depending on the amount of snow or lack there of for any particular model cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: y = A sin(B(x + C)) + D The amplitude and period of the ups and the downs vary depending on the amount of snow or lack there of for any particular model cycle. Hey hey what are ya doin'? I'm allergic to equations! They give me the hives...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I need a probability of Will delivering 3”. According to his wife less than 1%. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Man ya gave me the hives with that equation...I'm allergic to math!!! Simple equation for a sine wave. Applicable to almost everything in nature, from seasonal water table variations, to AC voltage and current, to Rossby wave behavior in the atmosphere. Math is fun! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: Simple equation for a sine wave. Applicable to almost everything in nature, from seasonal water table variations, to AC voltage and current, to Rossby wave behavior in the atmosphere. Math is fun! Tell that to my PTMD...lol (though one teacher at CCBC pulled off a heck of a miracle when I got an A in some of the same Algebra I flunked in high school). I will say that I do appreciate WHAT math makes possible (even the simple math when it comes to music). But childhood memories of fruitless, torturous coach classes and tutoring remain...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 35 minutes ago, ravensrule said: According to his wife less than 1%. So you're saying...Will's got a chance! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Not much to say about HH GFS. It is still holding its ground for the most part. We will probably know in another 4-5 days whether or not it has a clue or if it is just doing GFS-like things that have largely been in error lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not much to say about HH GFS. It is still holding its ground for the most part. We will probably know in another 4-5 days whether or not it has a clue or if it is just doing GFS-like things that have largely been in error lately. Yup, I'm holding fire until Sunday. Not getting vested into something like that this far out. I know you like the period after that, but I'm still riding on the fact that it's 100+ hours out and there's now way the models have the exact High placement yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Yup, I'm holding fire until Sunday. Not getting vested into something like that this far out. I know you like the period after that, but I'm still riding on the fact that it's 100+ hours out and there's now way the models have the exact High placement yet. I would love for the GFS idea to be more correct, but well, I just don't trust it after its recent performances. Ask Psu how much snow he had in his yard last weekend and then ask me lol. The GFS was inverted right up until game time.. and then we have the 2 events prior to that to consider. It is defo on a 'negative' heater. Tossing out all the guidance though, the other thing I don't like is the pattern leading in fundamentally isn't a good match for frozen in this area. Not impossible, but.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not much to say about HH GFS. It is still holding its ground for the most part. We will probably know in another 4-5 days whether or not it has a clue or if it is just doing GFS-like things that have largely been in error lately. I guess saying "GFS things" is probably the best way to put it. There really doesn't seem to be an obvious bias. The GFS has been too far NW with some systems, too far SE with others and locked in on a few. The last system to affect the midwest was a good example of the GFS being stubbornly NW while the EC and CMC were pretty good if you blended the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Just now, poolz1 said: I guess saying "GFS things" is probably the best way to put it. There really doesn't seem to be an obvious bias. The GFS has been too far NW with some systems, too far SE with others and locked in on a few. The last system to affect the midwest was a good example of the GFS being stubbornly NW while the EC and CMC were pretty good if you blended the two. It has generally been more erratic than typical. Maybe it is about to get back on a hot streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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