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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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4 hours ago, Ji said:

Gfs trends wrong way of course

Canadian ens looks better lol.

Euro/EPS still not enthused with the idea of freezing/frozen.

I'll say it again- late next week is worth keeping a casual eye on, but it's not the one. Probably too soon as it occurs at the front end of a shift in the pattern.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Canadian ens looks better lol.

Euro/EPS still not enthused with the idea of freezing/frozen.

I'll say it again- late next week is worth keeping a casual eye on, but it's not the one. Probably too soon as it occurs at the front end of a shift in the pattern.

Agreed. I like the window starting just after 3/1 better myself 

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Just now, jayyy said:

Agreed. I like the window starting just after 3/1 better myself 

March 1-7 is probably THE window. Not saying we wont have chances beyond that, but climo starts to make it more difficult pretty quickly going forward.

Looking at the ensembles, still pretty scattershot, but March 2 and then the 5th-6th is where a discrete threat might start to emerge.

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19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS still has the ice event on the 24th.  Unfortunately rest of the run keeps the cold air well to the North for the rest of the 2 week period.  Not a good run.  TGIF!

We will have to see how long the TPV can stay displaced and locked into a 'good' spot. Without much(or any) downstream ridging in the NAO domain, the character of the EPO ridge upstream will largely determine that- meaning the amplitude, axis, and orientation. It is a bit tenuous without some help in the NA. Right now I don't see much to "worry" about on the ensembles, at least not through the first week of March.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Canadian ens looks better lol.

Euro/EPS still not enthused with the idea of freezing/frozen.

I'll say it again- late next week is worth keeping a casual eye on, but it's not the one. Probably too soon as it occurs at the front end of a shift in the pattern.

Yeah, it might be the only one! We've all been around this hobby long enough to know that a good look in the long range can disappear pretty quickly. This is why I'll track the 6/7 day threat hard. It might be the last winter event of the season. 

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1 hour ago, MD Snow said:

Yeah, it might be the only one! We've all been around this hobby long enough to know that a good look in the long range can disappear pretty quickly. This is why I'll track the 6/7 day threat hard. It might be the last winter event of the season. 

Lets hope not. For now it is the only one on the radar to track though.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Saw this on the way to work. Never saw one before here in the city, so I’m Pretty sure it’s a good sign for winter, right? 

7FAA4F8E-6B9B-4B76-B7B5-5768F58EB0F6.jpeg

not sure about the bird... but the trash bin might be symbolic of the LR....if it were on fire of course

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29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Especially considering most of that would 'fall' beyond day 15.

Good thing is those maps are useless until there is a discrete threat on the radar in the short to medium range.

How the hell can you say 840 hour map is useless?  I mean, anything over 875, sure.  But come on man.  

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m not sensing the same joy in here that I did the past couple of days

Time kill periods suck and why I don't post much during them . Things look half decent in general after next weekend but that's a long ways off and nothing is getting locked in for a while if there is anything to lock. Emotional drift takes over and gut feelings become more important than actual data. So flavor of the day mood create new realities every morning until the overnight reset. 

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