CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 4 hours ago, Ji said: Gfs trends wrong way of course Canadian ens looks better lol. Euro/EPS still not enthused with the idea of freezing/frozen. I'll say it again- late next week is worth keeping a casual eye on, but it's not the one. Probably too soon as it occurs at the front end of a shift in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Canadian ens looks better lol. Euro/EPS still not enthused with the idea of freezing/frozen. I'll say it again- late next week is worth keeping a casual eye on, but it's not the one. Probably too soon as it occurs at the front end of a shift in the pattern. Agreed. I like the window starting just after 3/1 better myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 WB 6Z GFS still has the ice event on the 24th. Unfortunately rest of the run keeps the cold air well to the North for the rest of the 2 week period. Not a good run. TGIF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Just now, jayyy said: Agreed. I like the window starting just after 3/1 better myself March 1-7 is probably THE window. Not saying we wont have chances beyond that, but climo starts to make it more difficult pretty quickly going forward. Looking at the ensembles, still pretty scattershot, but March 2 and then the 5th-6th is where a discrete threat might start to emerge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS still has the ice event on the 24th. Unfortunately rest of the run keeps the cold air well to the North for the rest of the 2 week period. Not a good run. TGIF! We will have to see how long the TPV can stay displaced and locked into a 'good' spot. Without much(or any) downstream ridging in the NAO domain, the character of the EPO ridge upstream will largely determine that- meaning the amplitude, axis, and orientation. It is a bit tenuous without some help in the NA. Right now I don't see much to "worry" about on the ensembles, at least not through the first week of March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Canadian ens looks better lol. Euro/EPS still not enthused with the idea of freezing/frozen. I'll say it again- late next week is worth keeping a casual eye on, but it's not the one. Probably too soon as it occurs at the front end of a shift in the pattern. Yeah, it might be the only one! We've all been around this hobby long enough to know that a good look in the long range can disappear pretty quickly. This is why I'll track the 6/7 day threat hard. It might be the last winter event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Still on track for snow for my work trip next week....GFS has been pretty darn consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, MD Snow said: Yeah, it might be the only one! We've all been around this hobby long enough to know that a good look in the long range can disappear pretty quickly. This is why I'll track the 6/7 day threat hard. It might be the last winter event of the season. Lets hope not. For now it is the only one on the radar to track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Just looked over the 6z GEFS members for late next week- there are 6 (out of 30) that have some/mostly snow, and the rest look mixy/rainy or just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Saw this on the way to work. Never saw one before here in the city, so I’m Pretty sure it’s a good sign for winter, right? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Saw this on the way to work. Never saw one before here in the city, so I’m Pretty sure it’s a good sign for winter, right? What, a trash receptacle? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Saw this on the way to work. Never saw one before here in the city, so I’m Pretty sure it’s a good sign for winter, right? not sure about the bird... but the trash bin might be symbolic of the LR....if it were on fire of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: What, a trash receptacle? 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: not sure about the bird... but the trash bin might be symbolic of the LR....if it were on fire of course Correct 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 I’m not sensing the same joy in here that I did the past couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m not sensing the same joy in here that I did the pst couple of days I think we all know what’s going down, but we are winging it on hope-ium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I think we all know what’s going down, but we are winging it on hope-ium. We snorting or shooting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m not sensing the same joy in here that I did the past couple of days Still a week before we even have a chance lol. Waiting and watching.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We snorting or shooting? Hallucinating 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m not sensing the same joy in here that I did the past couple of days Need that sweet sweet digital blue every 6 hours to keep flying high 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Need that sweet sweet digital blue every 6 hours to keep flying high I have built up a tolerance due to constant exposure. I need purple now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: I have built up a tolerance due to constant exposure. I need purple now. Here you go…last night’s WB extended GEFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Here you go…last night’s WB extended GEFS run Great, Christmas 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 26 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Here you go…last night’s WB extended GEFS run that's awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: that's awful. Especially considering most of that would 'fall' beyond day 15. Good thing is those maps are useless until there is a discrete threat on the radar in the short to medium range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 29 minutes ago, CAPE said: Especially considering most of that would 'fall' beyond day 15. Good thing is those maps are useless until there is a discrete threat on the radar in the short to medium range. How the hell can you say 840 hour map is useless? I mean, anything over 875, sure. But come on man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m not sensing the same joy in here that I did the past couple of days Time kill periods suck and why I don't post much during them . Things look half decent in general after next weekend but that's a long ways off and nothing is getting locked in for a while if there is anything to lock. Emotional drift takes over and gut feelings become more important than actual data. So flavor of the day mood create new realities every morning until the overnight reset. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: How the hell can you say 840 hour map is useless? I mean, anything over 875, sure. But come on man. I need Chuck to weigh in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I need Chuck to weigh in. I need a probability of Will delivering 3”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 looks like GFS might put us on the sexy side of the boundary this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 not exactly sure who's going to get it here, but this is exactly what you want to see for overrunning wintry precip in the N MA strong, zonal 250mb jet streak, zonal 500mb flow with confluence in SE Canada, and entrenched cold air with strong HP 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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