pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: Long range CMC is interesting and quite possibly drunk colder in Louisiana than northern Ontario - yeah i don't think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Very slowly but surely winter is becoming JFM more than DJF. there has definitely been a shift, but I don't think it's as much a window shifting as the size of the window itself shrinking (where we would consider it "winter"). it takes forever for it to actually get cold here (if it does at all some years) - but spring is always quick to start peeking through even in Feb. meanwhile, summer more or less lasts until early/mid October these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Anyone have thoughts on that quick moving squally snow line on Saturday? Just interesting! Shows up on the 18z HRRR and NAM 3k - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 57 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Anyone have thoughts on that quick moving squally snow line on Saturday? Just interesting! Shows up on the 18z HRRR and NAM 3k - There is a clipper tracking to the north and that should produce some decent upslope snow for the western highlands, but beyond that not sure the rest of the area will see more than a random flurry. As for the HRRR at this range, lol don't bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: There is a clipper tracking to the north and that should produce some decent upslope snow for the western highlands, but beyond that not sure the rest of the area will see more than a random flurry. As for the HRRR at this range, lol don't bother. Oh? You rang? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Oh? You rang? Hope you get a few inches for the visiting fam to enjoy! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 HH GFS doing GFS-like things at range. Seems I have seen this sort of thing recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: HH GFS doing GFS-like things at range. Seems I have seen this sort of thing recently. Yup, all frozen now, but it's crap. I want a snow event. Not even going to lie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 GFS has something to track before 200 hours. Won't play out this way but a good sign for frozen soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup, all frozen now, but it's crap. I want a snow event. Not even going to lie. Same. But not even buying the zr/sleet event given its recent performances. Not a good climo match for the lowlands at the very end of Feb either. Maybe the Winchester folks are more intrigued by this idea, but not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup, all frozen now, but it's crap. I want a snow event. Not even going to lie. There’s a leading area of precipitation on all the guidance ahead of the main low. Like late Thursday. Guidance also mostly peters it out before quite getting to us. But our airmass is good, so if we can juice that up… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There’s a leading area of precipitation on all the guidance ahead of the main low. Like late Thursday. Guidance also mostly peters it out before quite getting to us. But our airmass is good, so if we can juice that up… Lets see what the ens mean looks like, not that it will provide any clarity as it mostly just follows the op each run lately. Still think this ends up mostly rain/ slop at best for the lowlands, but I am open to being surprised lol. One thing is for sure- the GFS can go eff itself if the Euro isn't onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Lets see what the ens mean looks like, not that it will provide any clarity as it mostly just follows the op each run lately. Still think this ends up mostly rain/ slop at best for the lowlands, but I am open to being surprised lol. One thing is for sure- the GFS can go eff itself if the Euro isn't onboard. The antecedent conditions (cold push, high strength and positioning) were better on the euro than the gfs at 12z. But euro just amped that storm up too much so it still cuts far west. But that is a euro bias so… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It hasn't been dry in my yard. Over 5" of precip in Jan alone. And with avg highs pushing 50 shortly, cold is exceptionally important versus Jan. We go back and forth on this a lot and it's fun but let's be honest here, we need both and considering 80-90%+ of our winter precip is rain year after year, if it ain't cold we ain't snowing. Maybe in the mountains by you but not for 95% of our sub. We had 2.7” here in January with .72 on Jan 1-2 when temps were in the 60’s and nearly an inch on the 16th. So I basically had an inch of precip outside of the 16th for the last 29 days of a month with temperatures about 4 degrees on average below normal. So yeah, I’m a little tired of praying for precip. So I’m really hoping we can get into a really wet pattern for the next month or so because if we could do that, I think my yearly snowfall would double .. at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 The look the gfs showed would almost certainly start as snow IMO. Let’s get that high over Quebec down over Nee England and we’ll be in business. Let’s get a snow, sleet,zr event to lay a base for a big snowstorm right in its heels. Who’s with me lol 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The look the gfs showed would almost certainly start as snow IMO. Let’s get that high over Quebec down over Nee England and we’ll be in business. Let’s get a snow, sleet,zr event to lay a base for a big snowstorm right in its heels. Who’s with me lol I'm with you. So much so that I'm typing up the thread at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm with you. So much so that I'm typing up the thread at this moment. I think that’s a fantastic idea. I may just do it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Saturday may be a nice snowy day out at the cabin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looking good Bananarama High Rippage lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 HH GEFS snowfall mean 2-3+" through next weekend, basically DC to Dover northward. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 The snowiest 6 hour p-type panels overall, Fwiw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 HH GEFS snowfall mean 2-3+" through next weekend, basically DC to Dover northward.Screw that...its gotta be go big or go home in late feb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 WB 18Z GEFS keeping the hope alive for another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 45 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, CAPE said: HH GEFS snowfall mean 2-3+" through next weekend, basically DC to Dover northward. Screw that...its gotta be go big or go home in late feb Go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Looking good Bananarama High ( 80s band reference) It's a cruel, cruel summerLeavin' me here on my own…. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Saturday may be a nice snowy day out at the cabin Yep, I mentioned that to RIC_WX a few days ago when I saw that NS vort/clipper moving through the NE. It screamed for upslope setup for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS keeping the hope alive for another day. I don’t think we are ever in the red. Not once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yep, I mentioned that to RIC_WX a few days ago when I saw that NS vort/clipper moving through the NE. It screamed for upslope setup for the mountains. Amazing call. Snuck up today at zero dark thirty for the first visit in 2 weeks. Trying to coax the remainder of the crew up for the weekend. Guess we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Scraff said: It's a cruel, cruel summerLeavin' me here on my own…. You got it, ya baby you got it, I’m your Venus… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Gfs trends wrong way of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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