February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

GEFS has trended colder today as we head into the end of NEXT week.  As we head toward March, need the below average temperatures first before you worry about storms, but snow chances do increase after Day 8.  

 

[87storms]

I’m craving a snowstorm…but I’m also craving warmer weather. The best part of this time of year is that it can offer both.

[Chris78]

Canadian gets snow into the area next Friday.

[Chris78]

Definitely looks like a legit chance at Frozen by the end of next week.

Canadian gets snow into the area by next Friday and the GFS is trending colder with lower heights.

[stormtracker]

I hope the GFS doesn't show a hit until Sunday.  I think we have a chance...at first I couldn't understand why anyone would be excited, but..I get it now.   

[yoda]

Well 00z Euro at 192 definitely makes you look twice with that CAD look

[yoda]

Borrowed this from the SNE forum... h/t @brooklynwx99

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

wow, this is super impressive stuff

200m anomaly on the 5 day mean over AK

 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, yoda said:

Borrowed this from the SNE forum... h/t @brooklynwx99

 

yeah, it’s one of the most impressive cold signals I’ve seen in a while

[CAPE]

The 0z GEFS tracks the next Friday wave further NW similar to the EPS, thus the signal for frozen is much weaker than previous runs. Still a week or so out.

The better window starts a couple days later when the cold gets more established, and the latest ensemble runs are suggesting multiple chances in that timeframe. Looks promising.

I am sure someone will post the 0z GEFS snowfall mean for that period, take it verbatim, and whinge. 

 

 

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Latest GFS has an ice storm with CAD as the low tracks to the west around hour 190. Switches to rain. Then cold air becomes more established another storm moves in to the MA giving us decent snow. Won’t happen but is a definite path to victory.

[MD Snow]

Wait, a threat to track next week? Chuck said it can't snow. And Will said that we should shut the blinds until March. And we're in a nina. It doesn't do this in a nina!

[Bob Chill]

Said it once... I'll say it again... I really really like what I'm seeing. It's a really convoluted way to get blocking but we'll take it any way we can get it. The types of storms that happen with compressed/confluent flow don't need a sub 1000mb slp for a big hit. It goes back to what I talked about when the fake bowl pattern was showing. Get the hose from the W-SW pointed at your yard on the cold side of the boundary and a foot+ is possible without a big synoptic event. We could use an "easy" one lol. 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Said it once... I'll say it again... I really really like what I'm seeing. It's a really convoluted way to get blocking but we'll take it any way we can get it. The types of storms that happen with compressed/confluent flow don't need a sub 1000mb slp for a big hit. It goes back to what I talked about when the fake bowl pattern was showing. Get the hose from the W-SW pointed at your yard on the cold side of the boundary and a foot+ is possible without a big synoptic event. We could use an "easy" one lol. 

The -EPO ridge advertised may be the strongest of the winter? And it’s not fantasyland. The PAC jet extension that starts kicking it off begins in 48-72hrs. The Atlantic side is weirder, but a properly placed TPV can do good things for us. I think that’s the bigger wild card, however.

Does look like a very juicy pattern coming up. My instinct is that slop/mix storms are heavily favored over pure snow given both the pattern and the calendar. But even a front end snow transitioning to mix/rain could be a big hit given the moisture plume and cold air source. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Those ens maps above show a cad signature. The gfs more so than the eps. 
 

The posts made by @CAPE, @Bob Chill, @losetoa6, @brooklynwx99 are encouraging. I’m excited because at this time of year you can get plenty of precip events. With cold air abundant to the north, snowpack, cold water, it isn’t hard to get some of that to drop south and cad events are easier to come by.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Those ens maps above show a cad signature. The gfs more so than the eps. 
 

The posts made by @CAPE, @Bob Chill, @losetoa6, @brooklynwx99 are encouraging. I’m excited because at this time of year you can get plenty of precip events. With cold air abundant to the north, snowpack, cold water, it isn’t hard to get some of that to drop south and cad events are easier to come by.

I really like what I am seeing beginning next weekend. Imo the progression of the pattern is such that late next week is probably too soon. Sure there could be a mix to rain deal, and could end up better out your way. Keep in mind the GFS has been in error with depicting colder solutions at range recently, especially in situations where colder air is arriving. Clearly the primary window for frozen lies just beyond next week.

[RevWarReenactor]

An endless train of precip getting shunted up here. One of them has to time right with the cold air; I think. I’d be far more excited if I was in upstate NY in this pattern. But I think we are at least in the game.

[snowmagnet]

29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Said it once... I'll say it again... I really really like what I'm seeing. It's a really convoluted way to get blocking but we'll take it any way we can get it. The types of storms that happen with compressed/confluent flow don't need a sub 1000mb slp for a big hit. It goes back to what I talked about when the fake bowl pattern was showing. Get the hose from the W-SW pointed at your yard on the cold side of the boundary and a foot+ is possible without a big synoptic event. We could use an "easy" one lol. 

Is the cold from a displaced PV? I remember having cold and blocking due to the PV in 2014- 15. 

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Is the cold from a displaced PV? I remember having cold and blocking due to the PV in 2014- 15. 

Yes, our Atlantic "blocking" in an anti-atlantic blocking regime is the PV itself. I posted about this sometime last week if you remember. The tpv drops into the US often so that's not rare. But it usually drops south then pulls north. Without a -nao or -ao, the only thing that can "block" the tpv from a quick pull north is ridge extensions from either the EPO region or Scandinavia. Looks like both are showing up now. This forces the tpv track more laterally and ultimately squishes heights in the 50/50 general area. That's blocking regardless of what any numerical index says. In the panel below, the tpv itself is the block and it could end up being a good one. Lots of time to kill tho...

 

 

Eta: blocking for our purposes is anything and everything that keeps a storm from tracking northward with ease. In the panel above, any storm that tracks north into that confluence is going to get stopped in its tracks. That's a legit upper level wall and if it's real, it will become quite distracting. Lol

[StormchaserChuck!]

I don't think they are beautiful looks, High pressure in the Pacific is the only real thing. 

[snowmagnet]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yes, our Atlantic "blocking" in an anti-atlantic blocking regime is the PV itself. I posted about this sometime last week if you remember. The tpv drops into the US often so that's not rare. But it usually drops south then pulls north. Without a -nao or -ao, the only thing that can "block" the tpv from a quick pull north is ridge extensions from either the EPO region or Scandinavia. Looks like both are showing up now. This forces the tpv track more laterally and ultimately squishes heights in the 50/50 general area. That's blocking regardless of what any numerical index says. In the panel below, the tpv itself is the block and it could end up being a good one. Lots of time to kill tho...

 

 

Eta: blocking for our purposes is anything and everything that keeps a storm from tracking northward with ease. In the panel above, any storm that tracks north into that confluence is going to get stopped in its tracks. That's a legit upper level wall and if it's real, it will become quite distracting. Lol

Thanks for the explanation! 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yes, our Atlantic "blocking" in an anti-atlantic blocking regime is the PV itself. I posted about this sometime last week if you remember. The tpv drops into the US often so that's not rare. But it usually drops south then pulls north. Without a -nao or -ao, the only thing that can "block" the tpv from a quick pull north is ridge extensions from either the EPO region or Scandinavia. Looks like both are showing up now. This forces the tpv track more laterally and ultimately squishes heights in the 50/50 general area. That's blocking regardless of what any numerical index says. In the panel below, the tpv itself is the block and it could end up being a good one. Lots of time to kill tho...

 

I would characterize the interplay between the vortex near the Aleutians, the poleward extending EPO ridge, and the TPV lobe(s) collectively as a block. It seems to get kicked off by a cyclonic wave break out of the Aleutian vortex that pinches off the Pac ridge and amps it up into the EPO space, followed by a poleward anticyclonic wave break, which sends the TPV lobe south, and then it all becomes self sustained. Loading the h5 vorticity panel and hitting play is fun stuff. Turbulent flow on the largest scale.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I would characterize the interplay between the vortex near the Aleutians, the poleward extending EPO ridge, and the TPV lobe(s) collectively as a block. It seems to get kicked off by a cyclonic wave break out of the Aleutian vortex that pinches off the Pac ridge and amps it up into the EPO space, followed by a poleward anticyclonic wave break, which sends the TPV lobe south, and then it all becomes self sustained. Loading the h5 vorticity panel and hitting play is fun stuff. Turbulent flow on the largest scale.

Pretty interesting and completely unexpected for me. I had a hunch that the epo and or pna would visit at least one more time before season ends but I def did not see this setting up. Shades of FM 2014&15 but even those tpv intrusions didn't set up like this. Maybe one or 2. Can't remember. We did quite well timing stuff but we didn't have a prolonged stretch where the tpv parked like ens are showing now. Hope it's real man. Lol

[stormtracker]

45 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

An endless train of precip getting shunted up here. One of them has to time right with the cold air; I think. I’d be far more excited if I was in upstate NY in this pattern. But I think we are at least in the game.

So is it the blinds, windows and doors closed, or still just the blinds?  Because your above statement kinda seems different. 
 

Please keep us posted on your excitement level.  Thanks. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Pretty interesting and completely unexpected for me. I had a hunch that the epo and or pna would visit at least one more time before season ends but I def did not see this setting up. Shades of FM 2014&15 but even those tpv intrusions didn't set up like this. Maybe one or 2. Can't remember. We did quite well timing stuff but we didn't have a prolonged stretch where the tpv parked like ens are showing now. Hope it's real man. Lol

Dude, who cares what you think?  We are all breathlessly waiting for Chuck. You are too detailed and knowledgeable. We need cryptic and endless NCEP maps from 1993 and nonsense.   
 

chuck, you’re up.  

[stormtracker]

25 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I don't think they are beautiful looks, High pressure in the Pacific is the only real thing. 

Ah. I missed this. Always clutch.  Thank you sir. 

[nj2va]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I would characterize the interplay between the vortex near the Aleutians, the poleward extending EPO ridge, and the TPV lobe(s) collectively as a block. It seems to get kicked off by a cyclonic wave break out of the Aleutian vortex that pinches off the Pac ridge and amps it up into the EPO space, followed by a poleward anticyclonic wave break, which sends the TPV lobe south, and then it all becomes self sustained. Loading the h5 vorticity panel and hitting play is fun stuff. Turbulent flow on the largest scale.

I don't even care if what you're saying is actually right, but damn it sounds smart!  

[GramaxRefugee]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Pretty interesting and completely unexpected for me. I had a hunch that the epo and or pna would visit at least one more time before season ends but I def did not see this setting up. Shades of FM 2014&15 but even those tpv intrusions didn't set up like this. Maybe one or 2. Can't remember. We did quite well timing stuff but we didn't have a prolonged stretch where the tpv parked like ens are showing now. Hope it's real man. Lol

Analog year of March 2014. (Insanely cold first week, I recall) At IAD, 2014 owns 9 cold temp records (if you count lo max), and 5 snowfall records, including snowiest month at 19.8" ...viz:

[clskinsfan]

I would prefer to see the PV drop a little further south for us. At least as far as snow chances go. But that cant be resolved this far out anyways. At least we are still going to be tracking threats into March. 

[stormtracker]

22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I would prefer to see the PV drop a little further south for us. At least as far as snow chances go. But that cant be resolved this far out anyways. At least we are still going to be tracking threats into March. 

I’m just glad to see cold relatively nearby with precip on the map in the medium range. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I would prefer to see the PV drop a little further south for us. At least as far as snow chances go. But that cant be resolved this far out anyways. At least we are still going to be tracking threats into March. 

Careful … unless you wanna watch another one south of us