February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

The prodigal son has returned. I’ll allow winter to resume.  What’s next on deck? 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The prodigal son has returned. I’ll allow winter to resume.  What’s next on deck? 

[aldie 22]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The prodigal son has returned. I’ll allow winter to resume.  What’s next on deck? 

A penicillin shot?

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

A penicillin shot?

OMG 

[CAPE]

Its all still pretty much scattershot on the members at this range but this is the best 24 hour window on the 6z ens mean that has a combo of cold in place with precip.

[snowmagnet]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The prodigal son has returned. I’ll allow winter to resume.  What’s next on deck? 

We welcome the resumption of winter. Glad to see you back! 

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I mean well but I know that my posts can be subpar, so I understand when I am criticized or made fun of I understand. I also know that it’s not an attack on me as a person but my posts. I guess I don’t really understand why some people get so ticked at others when made fun of, this is the internet after all.

Prob an age thing my friend. You grew up connected. Many here did not. For the older folks, words carry more meaning in general because we grew up in an era of face face face communication. It's a psychology thing. Not good or bad. It just is what it is and something to be mindful of

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Could you explain why like @CAPE does or are you just going to cancel winter? Because you’ve done that many times and yet I still have snow on the ground.

 

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Pattern is opening up, based around general global warming (land/sea) trough becomes N.A. centered.. same stuff as '16 on. We need low pressure and anomalous low pressure for snowstorms, unless there is a volcano eruption or something that year. 

Yup that went exactly how I expected. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Pattern is opening up, based around general global warming (land/sea) trough becomes N.A. centered.. same stuff as '16 on. We need low pressure and anomalous low pressure for snowstorms, unless there is a volcano eruption or something that year. 

Several things I want to point out with this post.  Correct me if I am wrong

1.  When have you not said the pattern is getting worse besides December, its like the boy who cried wolf. By this point I inherently (unless some non constant downers agree) disregard the downer's view on the pattern. 

2. We do need low pressure but not some super intense storm to get some snow. I mean all it takes is a well placed boundary wave to get a decent event

3. Global warming is definitely a bad thing for our hobby but still does not mean we need some crazy setup to get like 6 inches of snow. 

4. Why are you always so negative with tracking and everything? I mean it just seems like the ratio of downer posts to positive ones are like 9:1

At the same time you have knowledge and I value that but why always so negative is my main thing, why do something that you are unhappy with 90 percent of the time?

[Maestrobjwa]

54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Prob an age thing my friend. You grew up connected. Many here did not. For the older folks, words carry more meaning in general because we grew up in an era of face face face communication. It's a psychology thing. Not good or bad. It just is what it is and something to be mindful of

I grew up connected...lol (well...halfway. First half of my childhood was more "analog"...other half increasingly connected)

[StormchaserChuck!]

25 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Several things I want to point out with this post.  Correct me if I am wrong

1.  When have you not said the pattern is getting worse besides December, its like the boy who cried wolf. By this point I inherently (unless some non constant downers agree) disregard the downer's view on the pattern. 

2. We do need low pressure but not some super intense storm to get some snow. I mean all it takes is a well placed boundary wave to get a decent event

3. Global warming is definitely a bad thing for our hobby but still does not mean we need some crazy setup to get like 6 inches of snow. 

4. Why are you always so negative with tracking and everything? I mean it just seems like the ratio of downer posts to positive ones are like 9:1

At the same time you have knowledge and I value that but why always so negative is my main thing, why do something that you are unhappy with 90 percent of the time?

I just really believe in the PNA, it's really strong signal for the state of Winter. 

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Several things I want to point out with this post.  Correct me if I am wrong

1.  When have you not said the pattern is getting worse besides December, its like the boy who cried wolf. By this point I inherently (unless some non constant downers agree) disregard the downer's view on the pattern. 

2. We do need low pressure but not some super intense storm to get some snow. I mean all it takes is a well placed boundary wave to get a decent event

3. Global warming is definitely a bad thing for our hobby but still does not mean we need some crazy setup to get like 6 inches of snow. 

4. Why are you always so negative with tracking and everything? I mean it just seems like the ratio of downer posts to positive ones are like 9:1

At the same time you have knowledge and I value that but why always so negative is my main thing, why do something that you are unhappy with 90 percent of the time?

Sometimes when you’re walking down the street and you see something off…it’s better to just keep walking. 

[SnowenOutThere]

GFS has a bit of snow around hour 210

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

GFS has a bit of snow around hour 210

Too far out to parse details but definitely farther south than last run.

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Too far out to parse details but definitely farther south than last run.

Definitely, has two more storms right after each other

[WxUSAF]

22 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

GFS has a bit of snow around hour 210

What a goofy and entertaining D9-15. That’s all I’m going to say about it lol.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

What a goofy and entertaining D9-15. That’s all I’m going to say about it lol.

Plenty active and a little bit of everything going on there lol.

[Paleocene]

Moisture will not be the problem, hopefully lol.

 

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

What a goofy and entertaining D9-15. That’s all I’m going to say about it lol.

It rains or freezing rains in far NW South Carolina from hours 246 to 348. Makes sense.

[brooklynwx99]

So, there has been a lot of speculation as to why the pattern for the beginning of March has taken such a turn since just last week. I was pretty much in agreement with much of the meteorological community that the beginning of March would be quite warm as the pattern would be breaking down. It appeared that the tropical forcing would move into unfavorable areas of the Pacific for E US winter weather, like towards the Maritime Continent.

However, that tropical forcing has become less and less of a factor in the pattern, as the amplitude of the wave looks quite low:

So, instead, there must be another pattern driver that's led to such a dramatic change in the NH waveguide. It looks like the culprit is an extratropical cyclone over the W Pacific near Japan. It will develop by the beginning of next week, and it looks to become a highly anomalous cyclone, reaching over 4 sigma below normal SLP:

This cyclone will induce an extension of the Pacific jet and anticyclonic wave breaking, which leads to the anomalous ridging over the EPO domain:

I don't think that this is a head fake, and there is the potential for a significant high-latitude blocking event. It hinges on the strength of the cyclone in the Pacific, but there is tremendous agreement between models and their ensembles, so I do think that it's a legitimate pattern driver. Something similar to this also happened with Nuri at the end of October 2014, which was also a highly anomalous N Pacific cyclone. Nuri had a tremendous impact on the pattern in November 2014 with regards to N Pacific blocking:

Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month.

[stormtracker]

3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

A penicillin shot?

Probably not enough.

[Heisy]

Gefs with a nice signal for this range.

 

[SnowenOutThere]

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

What a goofy and entertaining D9-15. That’s all I’m going to say about it lol.

Was going to upload a forecast gif from tropical tidbits but it was too big. Lol just goes to show what a bonkers setup that would be

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Gefs with a nice signal for this range.

 

I was just looking at that. Basically 6 or so members have blues/pinks across the area for next Friday. Something to watch.

[CAPE]

[cbmclean]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

So, there has been a lot of speculation as to why the pattern for the beginning of March has taken such a turn since just last week. I was pretty much in agreement with much of the meteorological community that the beginning of March would be quite warm as the pattern would be breaking down. It appeared that the tropical forcing would move into unfavorable areas of the Pacific for E US winter weather, like towards the Maritime Continent.

However, that tropical forcing has become less and less of a factor in the pattern, as the amplitude of the wave looks quite low:

So, instead, there must be another pattern driver that's led to such a dramatic change in the NH waveguide. It looks like the culprit is an extratropical cyclone over the W Pacific near Japan. It will develop by the beginning of next week, and it looks to become a highly anomalous cyclone, reaching over 4 sigma below normal SLP:

This cyclone will induce an extension of the Pacific jet and anticyclonic wave breaking, which leads to the anomalous ridging over the EPO domain:

I don't think that this is a head fake, and there is the potential for a significant high-latitude blocking event. It hinges on the strength of the cyclone in the Pacific, but there is tremendous agreement between models and their ensembles, so I do think that it's a legitimate pattern driver. Something similar to this also happened with Nuri at the end of October 2014, which was also a highly anomalous N Pacific cyclone. Nuri had a tremendous impact on the pattern in November 2014 with regards to N Pacific blocking:

Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month.

Excellent post.  I always love to see you post in here, as the posts are info-filled and never random hype or downerism.

This is actually a nice change of pace.  We are usually left to try and analyze why a modelled good pattern suddenly degrades, so to see a bad pattern "degrade" is a treat.

Of course for my actual forum (the SE) this probably just means the difference between warm rain and cold rain, but I am rooting for the MA and especially the NW crew to cash in.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Excellent post.  I always love to see you post in here, as the posts are info-filled and never random hype or downerism.

This is actually a nice change of pace.  We are usually left to try and analyze why a modelled good pattern suddenly degrades, so to see a bad pattern "degrade" is a treat.

Of course for my actual forum (the SE) this probably just means the difference between warm rain and cold rain, but I am rooting for the MA and especially the NW crew to cash in.

hmm, I think you guys could still be in for something too. there's going to be enough strong HP in SE Canada that you'll have some chances in NC. the 12z GFS shows how you can get there

that kind of amplified -EPO is something that's good for the entire E US

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not a lot of ones show snow, but the ones that do show a good bit. Seems a bit like a go big or go home event looking at the panels. 

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

hmm, I think you guys could still be in for something too. there's going to be enough strong HP in SE Canada that you'll have some chances in NC. the 12z GFS shows how you can get there

that kind of amplified -EPO is something that's good for the entire E US

Like it when you lay out the road ahead….great post.

[StormchaserChuck!]

52 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month.

12 likes? 1 trophy

Just kidding, but we have to break this La Nina pattern. PNA dominates+time, it's like a physics equation.