February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[StormchaserChuck!]

I don't see any snowstorms coming,  Pattern will revolve around event/noevent and it's dry.

[SnowenOutThere]

41 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I don't see any snowstorms coming,  Pattern will revolve around event/noevent and it's dry.

Could you explain why like @CAPE does or are you just going to cancel winter? Because you’ve done that many times and yet I still have snow on the ground.

[baldereagle]

8 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You’re always confused.

“I know I am, but what are you?”       Why are some posters so reactive? Is it really that bad if someone disagrees, teases or jibes? Or, God forbid, outright criticizes.

Mark Twain has a famous saying  about this, just saying. 
Think before hitting the keys.

 

[SnowenOutThere]

8 minutes ago, baldereagle said:

“I know I am, but what are you?”       Why are some posters so reactive? Is it really that bad if someone disagrees, teases or jibes? Or, God forbid, outright criticizes.

Mark Twain has a famous saying  about this, just saying. 
Think before hitting the keys.

 

I mean well but I know that my posts can be subpar, so I understand when I am criticized or made fun of I understand. I also know that it’s not an attack on me as a person but my posts. I guess I don’t really understand why some people get so ticked at others when made fun of, this is the internet after all.

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps hinting at the 24th 25th  ish like Cape mentioned 

H5 progression on Eps is quicker to get to the "better look" then Gefs 

Eps

There were more EPS members than GEFS that 'like' this period on the 0z runs.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS… few hits next weekend and then again in early March.

[dallen7908]

For what it is worth, the percent of EPS members giving DC greater than 3" of snow/sleet through 0 UT Feb 26 (10 days from yesterday evening) has increased from 2 to 8 to 18% over the last 3 cycles (00 UT Feb 15, 12 UT Feb 16, and 00 UT Feb 16).  The modeled window for snow begins on the evening of the 24th. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Could you explain why like @CAPE does or are you just going to cancel winter? Because you’ve done that many times and yet I still have snow on the ground.

Pattern is opening up, based around general global warming (land/sea) trough becomes N.A. centered.. same stuff as '16 on. We need low pressure and anomalous low pressure for snowstorms, unless there is a volcano eruption or something that year. 

[RevWarReenactor]

Been watching this upcoming storm for Thursday  and it’s trending south last two days on the GFS. Chicago was rainy icy and maybe snow and is now almost all snow. Syracuse was rain by a 200 mile margin and is now flirting with ice.

So maybe that Feb 25th event has some room to come south? It would have to be a decent sized adjustment; but maybe? Looks like our first “window of opportunity. “

[stormtracker]

The prodigal son has returned. I’ll allow winter to resume.  What’s next on deck? 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The prodigal son has returned. I’ll allow winter to resume.  What’s next on deck? 

[aldie 22]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The prodigal son has returned. I’ll allow winter to resume.  What’s next on deck? 

A penicillin shot?

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

A penicillin shot?

OMG 

[CAPE]

Its all still pretty much scattershot on the members at this range but this is the best 24 hour window on the 6z ens mean that has a combo of cold in place with precip.

[snowmagnet]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The prodigal son has returned. I’ll allow winter to resume.  What’s next on deck? 

We welcome the resumption of winter. Glad to see you back! 

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I mean well but I know that my posts can be subpar, so I understand when I am criticized or made fun of I understand. I also know that it’s not an attack on me as a person but my posts. I guess I don’t really understand why some people get so ticked at others when made fun of, this is the internet after all.

Prob an age thing my friend. You grew up connected. Many here did not. For the older folks, words carry more meaning in general because we grew up in an era of face face face communication. It's a psychology thing. Not good or bad. It just is what it is and something to be mindful of

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Could you explain why like @CAPE does or are you just going to cancel winter? Because you’ve done that many times and yet I still have snow on the ground.

 

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Pattern is opening up, based around general global warming (land/sea) trough becomes N.A. centered.. same stuff as '16 on. We need low pressure and anomalous low pressure for snowstorms, unless there is a volcano eruption or something that year. 

Yup that went exactly how I expected. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Pattern is opening up, based around general global warming (land/sea) trough becomes N.A. centered.. same stuff as '16 on. We need low pressure and anomalous low pressure for snowstorms, unless there is a volcano eruption or something that year. 

Several things I want to point out with this post.  Correct me if I am wrong

1.  When have you not said the pattern is getting worse besides December, its like the boy who cried wolf. By this point I inherently (unless some non constant downers agree) disregard the downer's view on the pattern. 

2. We do need low pressure but not some super intense storm to get some snow. I mean all it takes is a well placed boundary wave to get a decent event

3. Global warming is definitely a bad thing for our hobby but still does not mean we need some crazy setup to get like 6 inches of snow. 

4. Why are you always so negative with tracking and everything? I mean it just seems like the ratio of downer posts to positive ones are like 9:1

At the same time you have knowledge and I value that but why always so negative is my main thing, why do something that you are unhappy with 90 percent of the time?

[Maestrobjwa]

54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Prob an age thing my friend. You grew up connected. Many here did not. For the older folks, words carry more meaning in general because we grew up in an era of face face face communication. It's a psychology thing. Not good or bad. It just is what it is and something to be mindful of

I grew up connected...lol (well...halfway. First half of my childhood was more "analog"...other half increasingly connected)

[StormchaserChuck!]

25 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Several things I want to point out with this post.  Correct me if I am wrong

1.  When have you not said the pattern is getting worse besides December, its like the boy who cried wolf. By this point I inherently (unless some non constant downers agree) disregard the downer's view on the pattern. 

2. We do need low pressure but not some super intense storm to get some snow. I mean all it takes is a well placed boundary wave to get a decent event

3. Global warming is definitely a bad thing for our hobby but still does not mean we need some crazy setup to get like 6 inches of snow. 

4. Why are you always so negative with tracking and everything? I mean it just seems like the ratio of downer posts to positive ones are like 9:1

At the same time you have knowledge and I value that but why always so negative is my main thing, why do something that you are unhappy with 90 percent of the time?

I just really believe in the PNA, it's really strong signal for the state of Winter. 

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Several things I want to point out with this post.  Correct me if I am wrong

1.  When have you not said the pattern is getting worse besides December, its like the boy who cried wolf. By this point I inherently (unless some non constant downers agree) disregard the downer's view on the pattern. 

2. We do need low pressure but not some super intense storm to get some snow. I mean all it takes is a well placed boundary wave to get a decent event

3. Global warming is definitely a bad thing for our hobby but still does not mean we need some crazy setup to get like 6 inches of snow. 

4. Why are you always so negative with tracking and everything? I mean it just seems like the ratio of downer posts to positive ones are like 9:1

At the same time you have knowledge and I value that but why always so negative is my main thing, why do something that you are unhappy with 90 percent of the time?

Sometimes when you’re walking down the street and you see something off…it’s better to just keep walking. 

[SnowenOutThere]

GFS has a bit of snow around hour 210

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

GFS has a bit of snow around hour 210

Too far out to parse details but definitely farther south than last run.

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Too far out to parse details but definitely farther south than last run.

Definitely, has two more storms right after each other

[WxUSAF]

22 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

GFS has a bit of snow around hour 210

What a goofy and entertaining D9-15. That’s all I’m going to say about it lol.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

What a goofy and entertaining D9-15. That’s all I’m going to say about it lol.

Plenty active and a little bit of everything going on there lol.

[Paleocene]

Moisture will not be the problem, hopefully lol.

 

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

What a goofy and entertaining D9-15. That’s all I’m going to say about it lol.

It rains or freezing rains in far NW South Carolina from hours 246 to 348. Makes sense.

[brooklynwx99]

So, there has been a lot of speculation as to why the pattern for the beginning of March has taken such a turn since just last week. I was pretty much in agreement with much of the meteorological community that the beginning of March would be quite warm as the pattern would be breaking down. It appeared that the tropical forcing would move into unfavorable areas of the Pacific for E US winter weather, like towards the Maritime Continent.

However, that tropical forcing has become less and less of a factor in the pattern, as the amplitude of the wave looks quite low:

So, instead, there must be another pattern driver that's led to such a dramatic change in the NH waveguide. It looks like the culprit is an extratropical cyclone over the W Pacific near Japan. It will develop by the beginning of next week, and it looks to become a highly anomalous cyclone, reaching over 4 sigma below normal SLP:

This cyclone will induce an extension of the Pacific jet and anticyclonic wave breaking, which leads to the anomalous ridging over the EPO domain:

I don't think that this is a head fake, and there is the potential for a significant high-latitude blocking event. It hinges on the strength of the cyclone in the Pacific, but there is tremendous agreement between models and their ensembles, so I do think that it's a legitimate pattern driver. Something similar to this also happened with Nuri at the end of October 2014, which was also a highly anomalous N Pacific cyclone. Nuri had a tremendous impact on the pattern in November 2014 with regards to N Pacific blocking:

Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month.

[stormtracker]

3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

A penicillin shot?

Probably not enough.