brooklynwx99 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 this is a really nice look. cold and active as the -EPO forces the boundary S split flow evident too with the STJ in the picture 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is a really nice look. cold and active as the -EPO forces the boundary S split flow evident too with the STJ in the picture TPV placement is interesting and one of the reasons I'm interested in general. Pretty big +NAO but the tpv squishes the flow and crushes heights off the martimes. Pretty jacked up way to get blocking but for our purposes, it is blocking and would force storm track much more laterally than steep troughs and WARs. You guys up north don't have to sweat that stuff as much. We're always right on the edge of development here when things turn the corner and head north. I'm tired AF of that. Lol. Squish the flow to our NE and we can do pretty well with west or SW approach trajectory. Much bigger precip shields are possible too. God I'm sick of chasing little magic marker stripes on the cold side of storms too.... gah 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Think the MJO can swing around to phase 8 late March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 hours ago, osfan24 said: It counts way less, at least in my mind. Ok but then factor in the fact your avg snow on blacktop is likely only 60% of your actual avg into you’re expectations. 5 hours ago, CAPE said: That's hard to believe given the number of 'plowed events' I have had here in that span. I get the UHI there but still. That said, I think his area has been pretty unlucky lately- probably completely missed several good events I had here and got fringed/missed by others that were good further inland. He has been in the same screw zone as Maestro and other parts of northeast Md. And I’m very familiar with his location, he is in a horrible local screw zone within the larger screw zone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 hours ago, dailylurker said: Are you on the northern end of Parrs Ridge? I saw you mentioned you live on a Ridge near PA border? On on the top of the Southern End 7 miles north of 70. Yes, the specific ridge I’m on is Dug Hill. I’m at about 1050 ft just north of Manchester and south of the PA line. I’m about a mile from the highest point on Parrs Ridge and the highest point in MD east of the Appalachian Trail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: TPV placement is interesting and one of the reasons I'm interested in general. Pretty big +NAO but the tpv squishes the flow and crushes heights off the martimes. Pretty jacked up way to get blocking but for our purposes, it is blocking and would force storm track much more laterally than steep troughs and WARs. You guys up north don't have to sweat that stuff as much. We're always right on the edge of development here when things turn the corner and head north. I'm tired AF of that. Lol. Squish the flow to our NE and we can do pretty well with west or SW approach trajectory. Much bigger precip shields are possible too. God I'm sick of chasing little magic marker stripes on the cold side of storms too.... gah yeah, the NAO is so positive that the TPV kinda acts as a pseudo-50/50 and helps provide confluent flow in SE Canada. it's weird, but that same kind of pattern was able to produce Marches 2014/15, which were snowy for the entire E US. lots of cold overrunning snows in those months 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, the NAO is so positive that the TPV kinda acts as a pseudo-50/50 and helps provide confluent flow in SE Canada. it's weird, but that same kind of pattern was able to produce Marches 2014/15, which were snowy for the entire E US. lots of cold overrunning snows in those months 220 221 whatever it takes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Ok but then factor in the fact your avg snow on blacktop is likely only 60% of your actual avg into you’re expectations. He has been in the same screw zone as Maestro and other parts of northeast Md. And I’m very familiar with his location, he is in a horrible local screw zone within the larger screw zone. Largest storm since 2016: 5.7” in Feb of ‘19. It’s been difficult lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: The way this day 7 -8 timeframe has been trending colder and colder to the north we might start seeing ops depicting some frozen in the next couple days for this timeframe. Need some more big trends. Realistically I think the next 8-10 days are toast. The very end of the month is where the pattern looks to become manageable. Always subject to change ofc, but I would bet it's more likely to be delayed if anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 WB 12 EPS. About 9 would be acceptable to most for around March 1. Again, hoping something definitive to track may appear by the end of next work week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 My trip next week still looking tasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Ok but then factor in the fact your avg snow on blacktop is likely only 60% of your actual avg into you’re expectations. He has been in the same screw zone as Maestro and other parts of northeast Md. And I’m very familiar with his location, he is in a horrible local screw zone within the larger screw zone. Now I'm confused...I had assumed what goes in the official record is just what's measured on paved surfaces! Not so? I thought that "white rain" events were measured as "slushy accumulations" of an inch, lol P.S. I've always viewed Baltimore as a slight screw zone...but after watching the last 6 years, sweet mercy above! But oddly enough, a bulk of the screw overs during this stretch have been more from being on the edge of precip more so than elevation (though obviously we can have UHI issues at times) But lately we've been too far north for sliders, too far east for WAA, too far west for a piece of a Miller B...ouch! That's why some of us have been a bit grouchier, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I'm confused...I had assumed what goes in the official record is just what's measured on paved surfaces! Not so? I thought that "white rain" events were measured as "slushy accumulations" of an inch, lol P.S. I've always viewed Baltimore as a slight screw zone...but after watching the last 6 years, sweet mercy above! But oddly enough, a bulk of the screw overs during this stretch have been more from being on the edge of precip more so than elevation (though obviously we can have UHI issues at times) But lately we've been too far north for sliders, too far east for WAA, too far west for a piece of a Miller B...ouch! That's why some of us have been a bit grouchier, lol You’re always confused. https://www.weather.gov/dvn/snowmeasure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I'm confused...I had assumed what goes in the official record is just what's measured on paved surfaces! Not so? I thought that "white rain" events were measured as "slushy accumulations" of an inch, lol P.S. I've always viewed Baltimore as a slight screw zone...but after watching the last 6 years, sweet mercy above! But oddly enough, a bulk of the screw overs during this stretch have been more from being on the edge of precip more so than elevation (though obviously we can have UHI issues at times) But lately we've been too far north for sliders, too far east for WAA, too far west for a piece of a Miller B...ouch! That's why some of us have been a bit grouchier, lol Measuring snow on PAVED surfaces is about as wrong as it gets. Paved surfaces retain heat. I don't think I've ever seen snowfall qualified in an official measurement as "slushy" or any other descriptor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 31 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: You’re always confused. https://www.weather.gov/dvn/snowmeasure The heck, dude? Smh Thanks for the info, but the rest was totally unnecessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 27 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Measuring snow on PAVED surfaces is about as wrong as it gets. Paved surfaces retain heat. I don't think I've ever seen snowfall qualified in an official measurement as "slushy" or any other descriptor. Understood. I genuinely did not know--will remember that for next time. I think "a slushy accumulation of an inch" may have just been a weather channel thing I'd hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Understood. I genuinely did not know--will remember that for next time. I think "a slushy accumulation of an inch" may have just been a weather channel thing I'd hear I think local media uses it with a decent amount of regularity as well. Maybe in NWS discussions as well. Though not in the zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I think local media uses it with a decent amount of regularity as well. Maybe in NWS discussions as well. Though not in the zones. Ahh okay that would explain it! That language actually does make it confusing cause it's like...what's a "slushy" inch even look like? Lol But I guess they do need to specify whether it would be on paved surfaces or not for road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 I had a -PNA signal in March. The same thing was November, where it was based on SSTs, and PDO stuff, roll-forward (-PNA), we know that Nov turned out like this^, but then December blasted -PNA, maybe we'll see that -PNA again in April? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I honestly have no idea what some of y'all's problem is, smh I'm tryin' to get better on here, yet here come some JERKS after me anyway...the last two times completely unprovoked. Something as simple as proper snow measurement...I'm sorry I asked. I get attacked and then get told to "calm down". Nah this is me defending myself. I wouldn't be so "exhausting" if folks weren't being jerks. No one is attacking you. The manner in which you preface your posts often leaves you open to being poked at a bit though. Thicker skin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 After the storm mid next week likely tracks to our NW, seeing hints on the means of a west to east tracking wave along the boundary with colder air in place next Friday-Sat (25th-26th). There are a handful of members on the 0z EPS and GEFS with frozen for that period, while the op runs have another storm tracking to our NW towards next weekend. This is probably the period to watch for 'better trends', and it may just evolve into more of a threat for a couple days later. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 I don't see any snowstorms coming, Pattern will revolve around event/noevent and it's dry. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 41 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I don't see any snowstorms coming, Pattern will revolve around event/noevent and it's dry. Could you explain why like @CAPE does or are you just going to cancel winter? Because you’ve done that many times and yet I still have snow on the ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 8 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: You’re always confused. “I know I am, but what are you?” Why are some posters so reactive? Is it really that bad if someone disagrees, teases or jibes? Or, God forbid, outright criticizes. Mark Twain has a famous saying about this, just saying. Think before hitting the keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, baldereagle said: “I know I am, but what are you?” Why are some posters so reactive? Is it really that bad if someone disagrees, teases or jibes? Or, God forbid, outright criticizes. Mark Twain has a famous saying about this, just saying. Think before hitting the keys. I mean well but I know that my posts can be subpar, so I understand when I am criticized or made fun of I understand. I also know that it’s not an attack on me as a person but my posts. I guess I don’t really understand why some people get so ticked at others when made fun of, this is the internet after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 48 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps hinting at the 24th 25th ish like Cape mentioned H5 progression on Eps is quicker to get to the "better look" then Gefs Eps There were more EPS members than GEFS that 'like' this period on the 0z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 WB 0Z EPS… few hits next weekend and then again in early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 For what it is worth, the percent of EPS members giving DC greater than 3" of snow/sleet through 0 UT Feb 26 (10 days from yesterday evening) has increased from 2 to 8 to 18% over the last 3 cycles (00 UT Feb 15, 12 UT Feb 16, and 00 UT Feb 16). The modeled window for snow begins on the evening of the 24th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: Could you explain why like @CAPE does or are you just going to cancel winter? Because you’ve done that many times and yet I still have snow on the ground. Pattern is opening up, based around general global warming (land/sea) trough becomes N.A. centered.. same stuff as '16 on. We need low pressure and anomalous low pressure for snowstorms, unless there is a volcano eruption or something that year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Been watching this upcoming storm for Thursday and it’s trending south last two days on the GFS. Chicago was rainy icy and maybe snow and is now almost all snow. Syracuse was rain by a 200 mile margin and is now flirting with ice. So maybe that Feb 25th event has some room to come south? It would have to be a decent sized adjustment; but maybe? Looks like our first “window of opportunity. “ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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