snowmagnet Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 51 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's not bad, and given it looks like we will be baking on the EC prior that, this period might be the first chance for something to track underneath with some decent cold around. Is that close enough to Bob’s “bowl”? It’s a little misshapen, but maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Holy smokes Batman.. 1057 High north of NY . Pretty insane pressure. Impressive, but transient cold behind one warm storm, and quickly exits ahead of another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: ^woof, I dunno. Doesn’t look like any cold air around with Canada scoured out. It would take something dynamic. But most March events do. March 2014 and 2015 was an extreme anomaly. Usually we need to get bombed with a perfect track or upper level pass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 11 hours ago, CAPE said: I get mini depression thinking about the return of bugs and muggy Spring days, and all the work I will need to do outside. Inevitable. I'm the opposite. I get anxiety thinking about how we're stuck in winter for another 4-6 weeks and I have no idea how I'm going to pass the time. Give me warm weather and all my outside projects and hobbies back soon please!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: I'm the opposite. I get anxiety thinking about how we're stuck in winter for another 4-6 weeks and I have no idea how I'm going to pass the time. Give me warm weather and all my outside projects and hobbies back soon please!!! If you're located in Truth or Consequences, then isn't your average high already in the 60s by now? That should be warm enough for outdoor work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 I always thought established +NAO wouldn't insert itself quietly (without cold correlation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyHolt Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 11 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Sawyer Picaridin changed my summer life. Happy to see others have moved on from Deet. Love me some Off FamilyCare - continuous spray of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It would take something dynamic. But most March events do. March 2014 and 2015 was an extreme anomaly. Usually we need to get bombed with a perfect track or upper level pass. Yea was gonna post earlier with the map Cape posted, would probably need a well timed shortwave, one ahead to flatten out the ridge, and then something behind to pass at a perfect location. I think we'll track an event in March, but it does look like hibernation for the next 10 plus days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Fozz said: If you're located in Truth or Consequences, then isn't your average high already in the 60s by now? That should be warm enough for outdoor work My soul is from TOCNM but I reside in the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Actually we have a -AO for about 11 days, then it switches, graduation, east coast dominating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2nd burst of +NAO Feb 27 probably will try to be with -EPO/NE Pacific High vs west,-PNA(in trend).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Look how fast we transition.. 19F Now Pacific ridge/High pressure Wow, the whole Pacific is ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Look how fast we transition.. 19F Now Pacific ridge/High pressure Wow, the whole Pacific is ridging. Every time you post those ncep images I forget if I'm in 2003 or 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 NWS scares me a little with the warning system. Doesn't everyone have access to these? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 15 hours ago, snowmagnet said: Is that close enough to Bob’s “bowl”? It’s a little misshapen, but maybe? Could never pull it off this year. By the time the good windows for ensemble bowl looks hit reasonable belief ranges, reality was just another progressive steep hill amplification. Without a -AO it's hard to get the big bowl but def happens. 2013-15 had a lot of it. The most common scenario is the center of tpv dropping southward over MN or the lakes and not Dakotas or west then having any kind of ridge extension above it to make it travel laterally and not punch back north like the default track. Carves out a deep cold bowl of air where NS vorts either have to go over or under it but not thru it. Just couldn't pull it off. Got close even in real time but never got right (yet, still time. Bowls can happen thru late March) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 No trackable threats at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 56 minutes ago, Amped said: No trackable threats at this time. disagree, chuck is definitely a trackable threat 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Amped said: No trackable threats at this time. Long range CFS from yesterday disagrees with you. Only 100 and 4 GFS runs away! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 12z 384 is a trackable threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, Ji said: 12z 384 is a trackable threat The advertised h5 pattern on the means does get back to something manageable by the end of the month or more likely into the first few days of March as heights build into AK and western Canada. Probably nothing worth tracking over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: The advertised h5 pattern on the means does get back to something manageable by the end of the month or more likely into the first few days of March as heights build into AK and western Canada. Probably nothing worth tracking over the next 10 days. The ensembles really keep thinking we’ll get into a -EPO gradient pattern eventually!! Been advertising it for weeks now and perpetually been D10+ away. What I do takeaway is increasing confidence that Canada will NOT be entirely flushed with Pac air, so hopefully we can tap a solid airmass again at some point after 2/25. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The ensembles really keep thinking we’ll get into a -EPO gradient pattern eventually!! Been advertising it for weeks now and perpetually been D10+ away. What I do takeaway is increasing confidence that Canada will NOT be entirely flushed with Pac air, so hopefully we can tap a solid airmass again at some point after 2/25. i took your signature...divided the snow by the years...you are averaging 26 inches of snow pretty much since 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: i took your signature...divided the snow by the years...you are averaging 26 inches of snow pretty much since 09-10 Yeah, bolstered obviously by 4 historic years in there. Median over that period is 19.5”. Both are higher than the “true” long term mean/median by some amount. I’d guess my true median is pretty close to last year and this year, 16-17”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: The ensembles really keep thinking we’ll get into a -EPO gradient pattern eventually!! Been advertising it for weeks now and perpetually been D10+ away. What I do takeaway is increasing confidence that Canada will NOT be entirely flushed with Pac air, so hopefully we can tap a solid airmass again at some point after 2/25. Yeah that's what I was trying to point out with the EPS map I posted yesterday. If the Sh!t pattern is relatively brief, should still have some workable cold not far to our north, so once the east coast ridge flattens we have a chance for the cold to press south some and get a wave to track along the boundary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yeah that's what I was trying to point out with the EPS map I posted yesterday. If the Sh!t pattern is relatively brief, should still have some workable cold not far to our north, so once the east coast ridge flattens we have a chance for the cold to press south some and get a wave to track along the boundary. GEFS does just that... this is March 2015-esque NOT saying that this March will be anything that extreme, but the advertised pattern could certainly deliver with overrunning events riding the boundary 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah that's what I was trying to point out with the EPS map I posted yesterday. If the Sh!t pattern is relatively brief, should still have some workable cold not far to our north, so once the east coast ridge flattens we have a chance for the cold to press south some and get a wave to track along the boundary. Weather Will said that we were done for the season though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Weather Will said that we were done for the season though. He rolls with the D10-15 snow probability maps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS does just that... this is March 2015-esque NOT saying that this March will be anything that extreme, but the advertised pattern could certainly deliver with overrunning events riding the boundary I'm honestly surprised there haven't been any "confused" reactions to this yet since the map has yellow/orange over us. That said...those two H5 anomaly maps are astonishingly carbon copy-ish looks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm honestly surprised there haven't been any "confused" reactions to this yet since the map has yellow/orange over us. That said...those two H5 anomaly maps are astonishingly carbon copy-ish looks. Was March 2015 a good month for us? I totally forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 march 2014 was prolific for snow around here from start to finish. march 5, 2015 had a legitimate snowstorm...don't recall anything else substantial (looking through old pics and see a freezing rain event to start the month). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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