Fozz Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 The GFS is showing snow in Texas during the weekend that I'll be there. I hope it happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Still a strong +NAO here, -PNA right into March.. Honestly I'm rooting for that pattern to dominate March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 38 minutes ago, AdamHLG said: I can faintly hear something but it’s not quite clear. I think I can make it out but may need another week to actually hear it. I think “sun angel” maybe? “Sun … something”. But it is getting louder every day. . I'm going to go cook my wagyu on the front sidewalk this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Again, ridiculous +NAO at 384hr check out my thread Oh boy. I’m gonna get in that asap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Oh boy. I’m gonna get in that asap Get the garden in the ground early this year. Could be a nice thing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 5 hours ago, CAPE said: this could of gone two ways today on the 12z run...any guess which way it went? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, Ji said: this could of gone two ways today on the 12z run...any guess which way it went? GGEM has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 WB 12Z GFS…. I rest my case… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 there is a slight risk for the trailing wave on PD weekend to get its act together... definitely not impossible and there would be SS origin if it were to occur. worth keeping an eye on since there really isn't much else to look at 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 There are 2 12Z GEFS members that bring snow PD weekend so it is something to watch. Really only game in town after this weekend at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 WB Can ensembles are worth hugging until tomorrow….TGIF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 There are 2 12Z GEFS members that bring snow PD weekend so it is something to watch. Really only game in town after this weekend at the moment.Luckiky gefs dont have 50 members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 WB Can ensembles are worth hugging until tomorrow….TGIF!Looks like a shoein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Lets go!https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022021118&fh=174 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Mid march storm is what I am tracking…,WB GEFS extended too far north this run, but lot of time for the south trend!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 29 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Mid march storm is what I am tracking…,WB GEFS extended too far north this run, but lot of time for the south trend!!!! Punting the next 4 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Haven’t given up on PD period yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Haven’t given up on PD period yet. Uhhh, that’s incorrect sir. You have done so repeatedly 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Whole parade of systems crossing at lower latitudes through the west and central US. Probably a chance one of them ens up sliding farther south than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Remember all those GEFS runs showing above normal precip and below normal temps for our area? That worked out well....... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Remember all those GEFS runs showing above normal precip and below normal temps for our area? That worked out well.......No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 hours ago, osfan24 said: Remember all those GEFS runs showing above normal precip and below normal temps for our area? That worked out well....... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32º Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 GFS showing serious wind at 132. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Too bad no CAPE... that's a decent sounding at 132 on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, 32º said: GFS showing serious wind at 132. 70 to 80 kts at 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Eh, PD weekend period not lookin' so good...Looks like the never-ending parade of NS vorts scour out any cold the big cutter leaves behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Eh, PD weekend period not lookin' so good...Looks like the never-ending parade of NS vorts scour out any cold the big cutter leaves behind. Pretty good broad look analysis identifying a common problem and why it's a problem. Anytime shortwaves are zipping north of us, there is a period of return flow sucking warm mid level air up from the south. Even with insitu cold underneath and overhead, it's an efficient airmass rotter and not something to ever be ignored at our latitude. North of us can get plenty of snow with return flow stuff. We usually get rain. Eta: Models can't resolve this stuff far in advance though. There have been countless times in the past where those NS vorts magically appear and disappear in the mid range. With a NS dominant pattern you always need to be looking at those when it counts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: Pretty good broad look analysis identifying a common problem and why it's a problem. Anytime shortwaves are zipping north of us, there is a period of return flow sucking warm mid level air up from the south. Even with insitu cold underneath and overhead, it's an efficient airmass router and not something to ever be ignored at our latitude. North of us can get plenty of snow with return flow stuff. We usually get rain. While we're at it, could ya explain the whole cutter turning 50/50 low thing? I never have quite understood how that worked...(although I'm guessing a bunch of those lows to the north is one way it DOESN'T work...lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, yoda said: Too bad no CAPE... that's a decent sounding at 132 on the 12z GFS LWX alluded to that in their disco and seemed to be saying they think the CAPE is underdone. They don't say why, though. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE NEARLY 80 KNOTS OF WINDS AT 850 WHICH SUGGEST THAT WE WILL HAVE SHEAR WELL OVER 60 KNOTS AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CAPE AT THIS RANGE IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY LOW, I SUSPECT THE CAPE IS BEING UNDERDONE. IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET EVEN A FEW HUNDREDS OF CAPE COMBINING WITH 60+ KNOTS OF SHEAR, THE REGION COULD SEE A DECENT SVR THREAT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: While we're at it, could ya explain the whole cutter turning 50/50 low thing? I never have quite understood how that worked...(although I'm guessing a bunch of those lows to the north is one way it DOESN'T work...lol) Any strong cutter with the correct track will pass through the 50/50 region. It's a climo thing. 50/50s happen all the time but are usually transient meaning they are just passing by the sweet spot. When timing is linked up with something upstream, a 50/50 goes from completely unnoticed to the most important thing in Ji's life. We don't just need 50/50s. We need them linked up with other stuff. So basically, in a progressive pattern, you need 2 swift moving targets to be in the proper place at the same time. Tall order and often why they don't work. It's not bad luck. It's statistical probability. Blocking will lock at 50/50 in place. We still need 2 things to link up but only one is moving in that scenario. Far better odds and why we drool over that stuff 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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