WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Any more potential the next 10 days or so? GFS today is teasing D10, but things look generally hostile for snow chances after next week. Could it change? Sure. And I think there’s no reason to say winter is forked entirely, but expectations should be low given it will be late February or early March. Maybe we score a unicorn in an otherwise warm pattern. It can happen as wavelengths shorten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS today is teasing D10, but things look generally hostile for snow chances after next week. Could it change? Sure. And I think there’s no reason to say winter is forked entirely, but expectations should be low given it will be late February or early March. Maybe we score a unicorn in an otherwise warm pattern. It can happen as wavelengths shorten. Yeah the D10 PD weekend period is what I was thinking about. I don't even consider anything beyond PD weekend anyway, lol I'll track whatever until then as this winter's last hoorah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 48 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Get any phasing at all at 228 and it’s game on Screw it I'm all in. Got nothin' to lose and I'm goin' for broke! If anything pops up in the next few days I might even start the thread! Lol Like I said, nothin' to lose. It would be the last thing worry tracking till' next winter anyway so...let's go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Screw it I'm all in. Got nothin' to lose and I'm goin' for broke! If anything pops up in the next few days I might even start the thread! Lol Like I said, nothin' to lose. It would be the last thing worry tracking till' next winter anyway so...let's go! 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2018 all had March events, and they were Nina or Nina-like patterns. Of course, I don't recall anything of note in 2012 (lol), 2011, or 2021, but my impression is that March in a Nina can sometimes be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Screw it I'm all in. Got nothin' to lose and I'm goin' for broke! If anything pops up in the next few days I might even start the thread! Lol Like I said, nothin' to lose. It would be the last thing worry tracking till' next winter anyway so...let's go! Ahhh, the Maestro storm! Has a ring to it! Might strike the right chord and we can end this winter on a high note! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2018 all had March events, and they were Nina or Nina-like patterns. Of course, I don't recall anything of note in 2012 (lol), 2011, or 2021, but my impression is that March in a Nina can sometimes be interesting. Yeah but I haven't heard anybody say anything about any cold for next month. Isn't the MJO gonna go into the warmer phases anyway? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 The 12z Euro MIGHT be a slight improvement, but it's so weak and light that I would be surprised to see even a dusting from this if it occurred as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Just for warmth thoughts … sun angle rises as much from Feb 5 to Feb 28 in 23 days as it did in the 46 days from Dec 21 to Feb 5. That’ll add a a little zip to your step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Ahhh, the Maestro storm! Has a ring to it! Might strike the right chord and we can end this winter on a high note! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Anyone else having the issue of the GFS being stuck at hour 222 right before a possible storm might hit? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Anyone else having the issue of the GFS being stuck at hour 222 right before a possible storm might hit? Was just about to post this, lol Yep...it broked (my spelling) at possibly interesting part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 It looks like we now get up to -600dm in the +NAO. Because of trends/graduation, this might be something that doesn't break until next year (snow next Winter), it might flurry though. What are your season ending snow totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Syphilis has spoken 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Anyone else having the issue of the GFS being stuck at hour 222 right before a possible storm might hit? It's also stuck at 222 on the Nws page which is where I assume TT and pivotal,etc feed from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 I said back in December such a big -PNA favors +NAO later in the Winter, especially in February. We have also been reversing last year almost perfectly, That was big -NAO last February, even hit +500 to 600dm around the same time (Feb 7-9). Pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 WB 18Z GEFS. More of the same unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS. More of the same unfortunately. You need to walk down that steep ass hill past those big sunflowers get on the train and head south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 This may be where we are headed +NAO analogs Feb14-28 +,- 200dm is pretty extreme.. 3 points, in all analogs since 2006 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 actually 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Here.. 1 more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 I personally think it will be a -NAO March, we'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 After the warm/wet storm late next week, we should be at least briefly colder in the wake, and there is a chance for something to ride the boundary next weekend. Can see the potential here on the GEFS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 ^I've found indexes lead when they are strong, such a strong -PNA/+NAO will only trend warmer in the eastern 2/3 US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Still a strong +NAO here, -PNA right into March.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Gfs continues the bring next weekends storm closer to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Still a strong +NAO here, -PNA right into March.. Thanks for the persistent reminders! I had almost forgotten since your last posts a few hours ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Looking at GEFS, EPS, GEFS extended, and the latest Euro Weeklies, we will have a window of opportunity late the upcoming work week/ during the President's Day weekend. After that it looks like we may have to wait to see if we connect with a Hail Mary in the second or third week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Again, ridiculous +NAO at 384hr check out my thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 I can faintly hear something but it’s not quite clear. I think I can make it out but may need another week to actually hear it. I think “sun angel” maybe? “Sun … something”. But it is getting louder every day. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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