jayyy Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 NAM’d! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Looking at the GFS over the past few model cycles, the primary NS shortwave has trended more towards a vorticity lobe(lacks sharpness) and the attempted phase with the southern shortwave is sloppy(partial/late).The precip we get as depicted is associated with the southern vorticity max that slides up ahead of the broadening trough as the NS dives in behind. This southern vort has trended sharper/ further SE. The NAM fwiw has it further NW. Don't have time to go through all the guidance but suffice to say some changes in the subtle interactions are still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: NAM’d! Good luck with that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 The problem with getting any love from the actual coastal is the NS is still largely acting as a wrecking ball, broadening the overall trough, and shoving everything east. The coastal low develops over the baroclinic boundary offshore and gets going too far east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 33 minutes ago, CAPE said: Good luck with that! He’s ready for a thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: He’s ready for a thread! Do it, it’s time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, yoda said: Alrighty then 06z GFS Short Pump-ed. Ironically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 52 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: He’s ready for a thread! Make a thread but make the thread title 19 paragraphs like our friends up north do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Thread started if mods will pin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 WB 6Z EURO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO Actually looks better than 00z Euro I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Only I can pick a weekend to ski canaan valley where it snows considerably more at snow starved resorts like Wintergreen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Actually looks better than 00z Euro I believe Yah I guess. At this point, I don’t expect more than a dusting on grassy surfaces on Sunday in my neck of the woods, but I can hug the NAM for another hour…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Thread started if mods will pin done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 6z 12k nam 10:1 Obviously, it’s the 12k nam and it’s on its own island, so I wouldn’ take it too seriously. Still a decent amount of spread being only 72 hours out but the windows closing quickly for the gfs to get back to 6z yesterdays solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 7 hours ago, MDstorm said: I don't think that I can stand any more "windows of opportunity" this winter. I'm right there with ya: 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Only I can pick a weekend to ski canaan valley where it snows considerably more at snow starved resorts like Wintergreen. Despite what the models say, it very rarely actually works out like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Any more potential the next 10 days or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Any more potential the next 10 days or so? Rain and some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Let that front hang up like the gfs is doing and it wouldn’t shock to see a storm develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Get any phasing at all at 228 and it’s game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Any more potential the next 10 days or so? GFS today is teasing D10, but things look generally hostile for snow chances after next week. Could it change? Sure. And I think there’s no reason to say winter is forked entirely, but expectations should be low given it will be late February or early March. Maybe we score a unicorn in an otherwise warm pattern. It can happen as wavelengths shorten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS today is teasing D10, but things look generally hostile for snow chances after next week. Could it change? Sure. And I think there’s no reason to say winter is forked entirely, but expectations should be low given it will be late February or early March. Maybe we score a unicorn in an otherwise warm pattern. It can happen as wavelengths shorten. Yeah the D10 PD weekend period is what I was thinking about. I don't even consider anything beyond PD weekend anyway, lol I'll track whatever until then as this winter's last hoorah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 48 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Get any phasing at all at 228 and it’s game on Screw it I'm all in. Got nothin' to lose and I'm goin' for broke! If anything pops up in the next few days I might even start the thread! Lol Like I said, nothin' to lose. It would be the last thing worry tracking till' next winter anyway so...let's go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Screw it I'm all in. Got nothin' to lose and I'm goin' for broke! If anything pops up in the next few days I might even start the thread! Lol Like I said, nothin' to lose. It would be the last thing worry tracking till' next winter anyway so...let's go! 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2018 all had March events, and they were Nina or Nina-like patterns. Of course, I don't recall anything of note in 2012 (lol), 2011, or 2021, but my impression is that March in a Nina can sometimes be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Screw it I'm all in. Got nothin' to lose and I'm goin' for broke! If anything pops up in the next few days I might even start the thread! Lol Like I said, nothin' to lose. It would be the last thing worry tracking till' next winter anyway so...let's go! Ahhh, the Maestro storm! Has a ring to it! Might strike the right chord and we can end this winter on a high note! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2018 all had March events, and they were Nina or Nina-like patterns. Of course, I don't recall anything of note in 2012 (lol), 2011, or 2021, but my impression is that March in a Nina can sometimes be interesting. Yeah but I haven't heard anybody say anything about any cold for next month. Isn't the MJO gonna go into the warmer phases anyway? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 The 12z Euro MIGHT be a slight improvement, but it's so weak and light that I would be surprised to see even a dusting from this if it occurred as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Just for warmth thoughts … sun angle rises as much from Feb 5 to Feb 28 in 23 days as it did in the 46 days from Dec 21 to Feb 5. That’ll add a a little zip to your step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Ahhh, the Maestro storm! Has a ring to it! Might strike the right chord and we can end this winter on a high note! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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