yoda Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Looks at 06z RGEM - "Take that!" Looks at 06z NAM - "OBJECTION!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Alrighty then 06z GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Alrighty then 06z GFS Just needs to come north 58 miles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, yoda said: Alrighty then 06z GFS Just needs to come north 58 miles Have the 06z GFS and 06z NAM meet in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Morning AFD from LWX SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ...Uncertainty plagues potential snow threat this weekend... After a couple of very mild days in the 50s to perhaps 60s, an Arctic front will cross the region late Saturday. An initial wind shift is expected to cause a change in direction from south to west during the morning, but the brunt of colder air is unlikely to arrive until very late at night east of the mountains. Cold air chasing precipitation behind a front is not normally an ideal setup for heavy snow east of the Appalachians. This is in part due to the drying effects of downsloping, not to mention compressional warming effects of downsloping that tend to delay temperatures dropping east of the higher terrain. Without a strong frontal wave nearby to hold in moisture, prospects for significant snow would be low. However, strong lift in the mid levels near the ideal snow growth zone, and an area of low pressure developing near the Carolina coast could act in tandem to produce a period of accumulating snow late Saturday night into Sunday. Questions remain regarding the strength of the offshore low. Its strength will depend on how the northern and southern branches of the jet stream interact, and just how quickly temperatures drop. A large ridge over the western U.S. is in a favorable position for downstream troughing and low pressure near the East Coast, with some ridging evident near Greenland; the orientation of the latter is not quite in the most ideal spot to hold or "block" a storm`s path keeping it close to the Mid-Atlantic coast. That being said, energy in both branches of the jet stream is rather potent, and if they interact or phase quickly enough, a stronger storm closer to the coast is still possible. This scenario is most evident in some of the GEPS (Canadian Ensemble/CMCE) guidance from the 00z suite, with the GEFS still bullish but somewhat less than its 12z cycle, and the EPS (Euro Ensemble/ECE) flatter, weaker, and drier. A consensus approach (i.e. NBM) to all of the above smooths out the swings from cycle to cycle and differences between individual model camps, resulting in a 40-50% chance of measurable snow across much of the area east of the mountains late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow may mix with rain, especially at the onset. Most likely snowfall amounts are currently projected at less than 2 inches for most areas, but both a low end scenario of little to no snow /and/ a high end scenario of several inches are still on the table. Potential impacts from this system may linger into Sunday. More on that follows in the Long Term section below. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... To conclude the upcoming weekend, the forecast remains unresolved regarding the threat for wintry precipitation as alluded to above. 00Z guidance and their ensembles paint a mixed picture of how much, if any, snow will occur with the weekend system. The 00Z GFS/GEFS mean have been the most bullish on the snowfall potential given a more favorably placed surface wave and associated mid/upper forcing. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF and its ensemble mean are flatter with little to nothing over the region. Sandwiched in between would be the CMC solution. With forecast highs in the upper 30s, some locations along the I-95 corridor may see rain mixing in with any snowflakes. Given the inherent model spread, much can change in the next 24 to 48 hours, so continue to check back on the latest forecast at weather.gov/lwx/winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 You guys are gonna get smacked HARD, by snow. Its gonna overperform! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Mount Holly this morning.. lol looks like they decided to forego all the details for what probably amounts to a minor event . Not many changes were needed in the long term with only some subtle differences compared to earlier. After a spring-like day Saturday with very mild temps and a good deal of sunshine, a cold front crosses the area late. This will bring some sct showers and sharply colder air Sat night and into Sunday. The front only slows as it moves across the area so the showers may last into the overnight. A weak low develops on the front and brings more steady precip (mostly snow) to the lower Delaware Valley, Delmarva and much of NJ Sun morning and into the afternoon. A small accumulation is possible, but not certain at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 NAM’d! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Looking at the GFS over the past few model cycles, the primary NS shortwave has trended more towards a vorticity lobe(lacks sharpness) and the attempted phase with the southern shortwave is sloppy(partial/late).The precip we get as depicted is associated with the southern vorticity max that slides up ahead of the broadening trough as the NS dives in behind. This southern vort has trended sharper/ further SE. The NAM fwiw has it further NW. Don't have time to go through all the guidance but suffice to say some changes in the subtle interactions are still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: NAM’d! Good luck with that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 The problem with getting any love from the actual coastal is the NS is still largely acting as a wrecking ball, broadening the overall trough, and shoving everything east. The coastal low develops over the baroclinic boundary offshore and gets going too far east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 33 minutes ago, CAPE said: Good luck with that! He’s ready for a thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: He’s ready for a thread! Do it, it’s time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, yoda said: Alrighty then 06z GFS Short Pump-ed. Ironically. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 52 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: He’s ready for a thread! Make a thread but make the thread title 19 paragraphs like our friends up north do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Thread started if mods will pin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 WB 6Z EURO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO Actually looks better than 00z Euro I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Only I can pick a weekend to ski canaan valley where it snows considerably more at snow starved resorts like Wintergreen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Actually looks better than 00z Euro I believe Yah I guess. At this point, I don’t expect more than a dusting on grassy surfaces on Sunday in my neck of the woods, but I can hug the NAM for another hour…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Thread started if mods will pin done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 6z 12k nam 10:1 Obviously, it’s the 12k nam and it’s on its own island, so I wouldn’ take it too seriously. Still a decent amount of spread being only 72 hours out but the windows closing quickly for the gfs to get back to 6z yesterdays solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 7 hours ago, MDstorm said: I don't think that I can stand any more "windows of opportunity" this winter. I'm right there with ya: 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Only I can pick a weekend to ski canaan valley where it snows considerably more at snow starved resorts like Wintergreen. Despite what the models say, it very rarely actually works out like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Any more potential the next 10 days or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Any more potential the next 10 days or so? Rain and some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Let that front hang up like the gfs is doing and it wouldn’t shock to see a storm develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Get any phasing at all at 228 and it’s game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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