psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Ninas give me an ulcer. Since I've only lived at 40N or south, they have been mostly pain for me. I am less enthused going into the season with them, but I still watch to see if something can surprise. 100% but shockingly when I ran the numbers Nina’s are actually slightly snowier on the whole around here than every cohort except modoki ninos. Enso neutral and east based ninos are even worse! But Nina’s feel so frustrating and I think it’s because so often Nina’s do feature periods of sustained cold but it’s mostly a NW flow NS dominant frustrating cold pattern. When we do get cold in other enso years it has a much higher frequency of producing snow. Just my 2 cents why Nina’s feel so damn frustrating 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Just a reminder that unless the 18z euro shows an actual hit the 18z suite was a net negative. I know how this game goes. Euro shows a slight improvement over its pathetic 12z solution and suddenly some get sucked in and we see “it’s trending better 3+ days left”. But trends in one individual model are irrelevant. It’s the trend across guidance that matters. And right on cue the 18z Euro improves, lolol Only thing that would break the cycle we've been in is the 0z gfs making a comeback and the Euro 0z improving or at least holding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And right on cue the 18z Euro improves, lolol Only thing that would break the cycle we've been in is the 0z gfs making a comeback and the Euro 0z improving or at least holding! If you sit at the poker table long enough you can start to predict the players next move. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 00z NAM does not look to be an improvement, for what it's worth. Jumped back to a 12z look at hour 69. Lots of energy gets strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Pretty excited to see this play out.. SE ridge will come much further north than that 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Comparing 12z stormtracker with 18z stormtracker. There are VAST differences. Let me tell u. 2 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And right on cue the 18z Euro improves, lolol Only thing that would break the cycle we've been in is the 0z gfs making a comeback and the Euro 0z improving or at least holding! it didnt improve...basically it couldnt get any worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Pretty excited to see this play out.. SE ridge will come much further north than that im going to get that PSU site shut down 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 100% but shockingly when I ran the numbers Nina’s are actually slightly snowier on the whole around here than every cohort except modoki ninos. Enso neutral and east based ninos are even worse! But Nina’s feel so frustrating and I think it’s because so often Nina’s do feature periods of sustained cold but it’s mostly a NW flow NS dominant frustrating cold pattern. When we do get cold in other enso years it has a much higher frequency of producing snow. Just my 2 cents why Nina’s feel so damn frustrating Maybe it's just that the way ninas snow is in little spits and spurts that, on paper, can get "close to median" a la the 2017-18 winter. But in terms of actual events they are less likely to produce heavier snows. So it's kind of a net loss even if the numbers on paper show something better. In Nina’s there's still more junk in the way if ya ask me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: im going to get that PSU site shut down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Comparing 12z stormtracker with 18z stormtracker. There are VAST differences. Let me tell u. Definitely less separation between the northern stream drink (on the right) and the already neutrally tilted southern stream one. Looks like they definitely could phase into a much larger, more potent beverage. Especially since they are nearly empty so another glass is in order. I predict enhanced vertical motion uplifting the glass and a subsequent strong influx of booze imbibed as well. 00Z will be telling, but I like these trends! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Comparing 12z stormtracker with 18z stormtracker. There are VAST differences. Let me tell u. Tequila does NOT suck. The ICON does. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Definitely less separation between the northern stream drink (on the right) and the already neutrally tilted southern stream one. Looks like they definitely could phase into a much larger, more potent beverage. Especially since they are nearly empty so another glass is in order. I predict enhanced vertical motion uplifting the glass and a subsequent strong influx of booze imbibed as well. 00Z will be telling, but I like these trends! I’ll allow it 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Maybe it's just that the way ninas snow is in little spits and spurts that, on paper, can get "close to median" a la the 2017-18 winter. But in terms of actual events they are less likely to produce heavier snows. So it's kind of a net loss even if the numbers on paper show something better. In Nina’s there's still more junk in the way if ya ask me! That’s somewhat true. But Nina’s can produce a big storm. 1996, 2000, 2006 and 2011 all had a MECS or bigger storm. I think it’s a combo of 2 things. We spend a larger % of many Nina’s in cold patterns. Ninas are actually the coldest cohort other than modoki ninos. Yes the return on that cold is less. It’s a lot of tease with little payoff. And secondly it’s been a long time since 1996. We haven’t had a big Nina recently. 2014 was a big neutral. 2010 and 2015 were big ninos. It’s been 26 years since we had a blockbuster Nina year. And frankly all years other than those rare blockbusters are pretty bad here. That’s our climo. A few good years a decade and otherwise a lot of crap. Nina’s have all been in the lot of crap category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, Scraff said: Tequila does NOT suck. The ICON does. The lesson in that pic is move somewhere that snow is not even a factor…people in Hawaii never think about snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The lesson in that pic is move somewhere that snow is not even a factor…people in Hawaii never think about snow Now see that wouldn't work for me...winter is supposed to be wintry. 70s in January would be awful. Now the folks that live there either love warm weather, or have lived there their entire lives, so they don't mind. But I'm not sure how you could be a snow lover yet move somewhere where snow and cold isn't even possible...no way, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: The lesson in that pic is move somewhere that snow is not even a factor…people in Hawaii never think about snow So true! However, those people have no idea what they’re missing when we pull off a great 2” fluffy cold white smoke La Niña win. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem looks fine to me Where do you get access to RGEM that early? I checked pivotal and TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem 1-3" through 84 and still snowing Can u post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Goodnight all I like the orientation and definitely further NW guess that all sinks southeast in time and intensifies dumping 4-8” with temps in the mid to upper 20’s! Okay wait I’m awake now from the dream it’s the winter of 21-22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I like the orientation and definitely further NW guess that all sinks southeast in time and intensifies dumping 4-8” with temps in the mid to upper 20’s! Okay wait I’m awake now from the dream it’s the winter of 21-22 And 0z GFS may be your noisy alarm clock...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: And 0z GFS may be your noisy alarm clock...lol Looks like it, not even close. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Gonna be better than 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 GFS at 78 has snow for all 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Snow breaks out region wide at 75, lp near obx 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Looks like it, not even close. Much better look. Definitely improved. Remember we aren't talking MECS here with this event...never were. Set expectations low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Snow moves out @ 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Much better look. Definitely improved. Remember we aren't talking MECS here with this event...never were. Set expectations low. I should have been clearer in my post, yes! Solid improvement and h5 looked better earlier on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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