NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I realize this is much, much less of a disaster for me but I expected a lot less forum-wide considering the doom and gloom in this room. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: Oops forgot about the 18z Euro. 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I bet HH Euro makes a baby move towards the 12z and 6z Gfs and sucks u back in Just a reminder that unless the 18z euro shows an actual hit the 18z suite was a net negative. I know how this game goes. Euro shows a slight improvement over its pathetic 12z solution and suddenly some get sucked in and we see “it’s trending better 3+ days left”. But trends in one individual model are irrelevant. It’s the trend across guidance that matters. If the most amplified guidance is trending less amplified and the least amplified trends more that’s not a trend it’s just convergence. We needed the Gfs and Ukmet from last night to hold and everything else to trend to them. Instead we saw everything converge on a middle ground today. And that’s always the most likely outcome. But the middle ground is a bad result for us unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The s/w in question is also way the hell in the NPAC. Typical sampling issues apply. See, this isn’t just some MA weenieism. It matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I realize this is much, much less of a disaster for me but I expected a lot less forum-wide considering the doom and gloom in this room. Convergence of the members will mean the max stripe will increase at this range but the axis continues to trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I realize this is much, much less of a disaster for me but I expected a lot less forum-wide considering the doom and gloom in this room. Yeah, that wouldn’t be a reason for me to not be ecstatic. It’s the same goddamn bullshit I’ve looked at all winter. But who’s keeping score I will promise you we will see many changes going forward. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 This is a drive-by post telling you, "La Ninas in the Mid Atlantic suck." There's several variables necessary for us to get solid storms in the sub-forum in a northern stream dominant setup. Small shifts in amplitude and longitudinal structure of the mean trough can mean whether we get a decent hit or it scurries to the north/south. That said, the GFS was a broader look, but it still managed to get snow into the area with a solid snowfall for Rt 50 on south. A sharper trough should help areas to the north. Time will tell if this trend continues, but the setup is far from dead. I would just temper expectations for places north of I-70 for this one. Further south you are, the better the chances are at the moment. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I realize this is much, much less of a disaster for me but I expected a lot less forum-wide considering the doom and gloom in this room. Story of the winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: See, this isn’t just some MA weenieism. It matters. You’re giving valid reasons why it “could” pleasantly surprise. It’s possible. I hope I’m wrong and it surprises. Won’t be the first time I’ve been dead wrong about something. But I’m just not in a rush to set myself up for disappointment. This has all the same flaws and issues as other recent setups. Why convince myself it’s going to end any better when the most likely outcome is the same? I’m still gonna track. Why not set the bar low then be pleasantly surprised instead of investing and being frustrated when everything trends to exactly what climo in a positive NAO progressive pattern says is most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Convergence of the members will mean the max stripe will increase at this range but the axis continues to trend south. That’s the GFS, but that is a mostly accurate summation of the GEFS as well, though the QPF swath did actually go down a decent bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why not set the bar low then be pleasantly surprised instead of investing and being frustrated when everything trends to exactly what climo in a positive NAO progressive pattern says is most likely. this has been my approach the entire season. it’s not a favorable pattern for the mid atlantic, so it’s best to keep expectations low and realistic until truly convincing data points otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: This is a drive-by post telling you, "La Ninas in the Mid Atlantic suck." There's several variables necessary for us to get solid storms in the sub-forum in a northern stream dominant setup. Small shifts in amplitude and longitudinal structure of the mean trough can mean whether we get a decent hit or it scurries to the north/south. That said, the GFS was a broader look, but it still managed to get snow into the area with a solid snowfall for Rt 50 on south. A sharper trough should help areas to the north. Time will tell if this trend continues, but the setup is far from dead. I would just temper expectations for places north of I-70 for this one. Further south you are, the better the chances are at the moment. i think another point about this system is how much of it will stick after a week in the 50s. i know it can if temps fall quick enough, but it's another variable working against us here. i've been looking at the gfs periodically and was trying to figure out how it's even getting that stripe of snow. i guess it's due to mid level forcing because the surface low is ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: this has been my approach the entire season. it’s not a favorable pattern for the mid atlantic, so it’s best to keep expectations low and realistic until truly convincing data points otherwise 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Channel 9 is buying less snow of 18z…saying it’s over pretty much…the suck too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This is a drive-by post telling you, "La Ninas in the Mid Atlantic suck." There's several variables necessary for us to get solid storms in the sub-forum in a northern stream dominant setup. Small shifts in amplitude and longitudinal structure of the mean trough can mean whether we get a decent hit or it scurries to the north/south. That said, the GFS was a broader look, but it still managed to get snow into the area with a solid snowfall for Rt 50 on south. A sharper trough should help areas to the north. Time will tell if this trend continues, but the setup is far from dead. I would just temper expectations for places north of I-70 for this one. Further south you are, the better the chances are at the moment. Agree with all this. Unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 DT makes a post about 90% of the MA getting snow and it all collapses. Never fails. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That’s the GFS, but that is a mostly accurate summation of the GEFS as well, though the QPF swath did actually go down a decent bit. That’s even worse. That had me getting 9” 2 runs ago. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This is a drive-by post telling you, "La Ninas in the Mid Atlantic suck." There's several variables necessary for us to get solid storms in the sub-forum in a northern stream dominant setup. Small shifts in amplitude and longitudinal structure of the mean trough can mean whether we get a decent hit or it scurries to the north/south. That said, the GFS was a broader look, but it still managed to get snow into the area with a solid snowfall for Rt 50 on south. A sharper trough should help areas to the north. Time will tell if this trend continues, but the setup is far from dead. I would just temper expectations for places north of I-70 for this one. Further south you are, the better the chances are at the moment. I'm glad a red tagger said that, lol So it's not an overzgenralization, then! Too much has to time up right, and we don't do perfect timing that well here. Fast NS, bunch if waves screaming across...ack! I took a guess that we'd see 13-15"...a prediction that looks, unfortunately, safe if we can't get anything next week/weekend. But this is kinda what they do... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: DT makes a post about 90% of the MA getting snow and it all collapses. Never fails. Yes I knew when I saw that it was the death knell…and the poison has been ingested..now we wait….0z will further weaken things…by tomorrow we will be smoking cirrus and wondering when we should start our detox exercise plan for summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Imma check out for a bit. Im starting to sound like Ji so…. Im not mad or even frustrated, I think it’s just I’ve accepted it is what it is and others are still trying to stay positive and good for them! If things turn around I’ll get on board. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Imma check out for a bit. Im starting to sound like Ji so…. Im not mad or even frustrated, I think it’s just I’ve accepted it is what it is and others are still trying to stay positive and good for them! If things turn around I’ll get on board. How ya feelin about next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 This is extremely reminiscent of every storm this winter....sharp trough trends broader, NS not as digging, stj escapes or phases just a hair late. I will be the first to congratulate @CAPE and others in the newly announced snow capital of the Mid Atl. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: How ya feelin about next winter? I feel it’s 10 months away and I still haven’t decided what’s for dinner tonight. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I feel it’s 10 months away The Australian model disagrees, looks like it's saying that it's 4 months away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I was busy at a work meeting at Crooked Crab Brewing. What did I miss. Everything fall apart? GFS collapse? ICON sucks? Euro blows chunks? The Canuck model is trash? Where’s the JMA? CRAS? Panasonic? Samsung? Sony? Speaking of trash… @stormtrackertrashed in Mexico?! Imma go with damn right he is!! Anyway—pick a GD model and ride that shit hard! Oh. And happy Wednesday! Cheers? Cut me the F off. Bu-bye. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: I was busy at a work meeting at Crooked Crab Brewing. What did I miss. Everything fall apart? GFS collapse? ICON sucks? Euro blows chunks? The Canuck model is trash? Where’s the JMA? CRAS? Panasonic? Samsung? Sony? Speaking of trash… @stormtrackertrashed in Mexico?! Imma go with damn right he is!! Anyway—pick a GD model and ride that shit hard! Oh. And happy Wednesday! Cheers? Cut me the F off. Bu-bye. Call an Uber. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Least ya got the super bowl to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 WB 18Z GEFS… I see I did not miss anythIng going out to dinner… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 We suck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS… I see I did not miss anythIng going out to dinner… It's really not that different than 6z or 12z. Just a touch south. I tend to hold things loosely, when the op is throwing out 6-10" totals and it's ensembles are barely over 2". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 51 minutes ago, 87storms said: i think another point about this system is how much of it will stick after a week in the 50s. i know it can if temps fall quick enough, but it's another variable working against us here. i've been looking at the gfs periodically and was trying to figure out how it's even getting that stripe of snow. i guess it's due to mid level forcing because the surface low is ots. Right now the timing is still decent with the CAA pre-storm. The PBL improves on approach, which should keep the event either as straight snow, or a touch of rain before changing to snow. The ground temps will cool as snowfall chills the surface with elevated surfaces and grassy areas first to go. It's a standard event, and with it being overnight Sat into Sunday AM, impacts should be pretty low. More of a stats padder by the looks of it. I haven't dug too deep into the event since I've been working and have projects I've been working on for a spring conference, but from what I've seen, its a borderline event with WWA potential for portions of the sub. I don't foresee this changing to something more significant. Missing a prominent southern stream influence to get it to more SECS territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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