psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 High end for this type setup is probably a 6-10” storm but that’s if everything goes totally perfect and maxes potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: High end for this type setup is probably a 6-10” storm but that’s if everything goes totally perfect and maxes potential. yea...that wont do it for you... next....how is the feb 18 looking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Amped said: It really looks nothing like the GFS, it leaves the southern stream behind and drops the polar vortex over Chicago. Yes but it did trend towards the Gfs. It’s developing over us v northwest at least. But until it converges on the consensus it’s hard to take much away from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: yea...that wont do it for you... next....how is the feb 18 looking Stop it. A 6” storm is fine. I’m not hunting an hecs. Just over 1-3” fringe events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 ICON fwiw. Not as good for our region and better just NE. The shortwave was broader/much less sharp this run, and beyond that I have no other insights because IDGAF and the ICON SUCKS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: When was it ever 12-24? Stop replying and it’ll go away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Stop replying and it’ll go away. no it won't it's like herpes only spelled differently...a breakout every 9 months that lasts 3 months 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: no it won't it's like herpes only spelled differently...a breakout every 9 months that lasts 3 months OMG. Perfect analogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 18z gfs says icon and nam are smoking crack cocaine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Broader trough than 12z on the gfs. Southern stream quicker out front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 18z GFS going south of prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Blah… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 GFS not sharpening the troff up as much this run. But continued trend further east with the first disturbance is causing it. Trend did not actually reverse, just moved away from the ideal spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Disaster...the gfs has lost its way. Things can only trend 2 ways....and its always the wrong way 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Everybody just enjoy the 90's on Friday and get ready to grill outside for the Super Bowl. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 It's always on Wednesday, ain't it? Lol I don't think one Wednesday this winter except maybe the first week ended with positive news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Trough somewhat broader/not as deep. It simply doesn't come together quick enough. The fronto stuff is weaker/further south and the coastal low gets going later/further east. It all went the wrong way lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 29 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: When was it ever 12-24? In Ji's dreams last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 GFS actually caved a decent amount toward the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, Amped said: GFS actually caved a decent amount toward the 12z Euro. Always take the model with the least snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 A beach in Mexico looking good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Fits right in with my hopes that nothing good shows until 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 When a model shows snow for Saturday night/Sunday the cry is....it's only Wednesday....when it doesn't show snow....it's already Wednesday. What a motley bunch 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: Yep. Not as deep and vort interaction was more disorganized. Another touchy setup. Touchy is the word to describe just about every storm this winter. Subtle differences in the timing and interplay make big differences in the outcome. The nature of fast, progressive flow. On to 0z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Oops forgot about the 18z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Fits right in with my hopes that nothing good shows until 48 hours. Yeah but when during this particular winter has something good shown up at 4i hours? Usually when a downward trend happens (usually on Wednesday, lol), it hasn't come back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS actually caved a decent amount toward the 12z Euro. We might be seeing the 100 hour convergence. It’s just not converging to the solution we want so some will cling to “it’s still x hours away”. It’s not done and every so often something crazy can happen. Nothing is certain. But as we cross the magic 100 hour threshold again it’s in the unlikely category. Whenever we need the most extreme solution of all guidance to be right, I don’t care which model that is, it’s not likely. 90% of the time the reality is towards the middle of the spread of permutations not an extreme. We keep rooting for the most amplified or least amplified options and that’s not a winning strategy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Fast progressive flows yield more frustration than not--that's a lesson from this winter. You gotta basically try to catch the scraps as they fly by if you're not right on the coast and can catch part of a Miller B. We were on a mini-heater for one week...after that mostly swings and misses, unfortunately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: When a model shows snow for Saturday night/Sunday the cry is....it's only Wednesday....when it doesn't show snow....it's already Wednesday. What a motley bunch It’s only Wednesday but it’s Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Touchy is the word to describe just about every storm this winter. Subtle differences in the timing and interplay make big differences in the outcome. The nature of fast, progressive flow. On to 0z! That’s what I’ve been saying. This is very delicate. It only takes small differences to make a big surface change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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