WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Depends what you call big changes. The fringe of a storm moving 50 miles isn’t big Imo. We know the edges and banding don’t get pinned until the very end. But we haven’t seen huge synoptic changes once inside about 100 hours. We’re right at that now. And maybe we’re seeing convergence. Ukmet lost it’s crazy amped up solution from 0z. Gfs also trended a little south. Icon and Euro trended towards the Gfs. Toss the ggem as the outlier. Maybe there is another curve in the next 24 hours but if not the consensus of all that guidance is likely close to the final outcome. I’ll say this. I honestly think at this point I’m looking at a range of 0 snow to up to 6” of snow. I think that’s very much within the realm of possibilities. I think that leaves a lot of room for big changes. Now if you paint a swath 200 miles wide and say snow is possible here on Sunday, and call that locked in, then yeah we’re locked in. Youre never gonna see models go from a trace to 20”. That’s not what I’m talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I thought the NAM looked pretty good at 84. I hate saying this but it did. Enough spacing at first to get the frontal snow going, but the northern stream diving in fast to probably help juice up the coastal. And the northern stream diving in farther west. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s over DT kiss of death....forget about this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I fully expect the GFS to hold here at 18z. It’s been pretty locked in now for 3-4 consecutive runs. It is in it’s King wheelhouse. Just need that bullseye stripe to come north 30-40 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Someone refresh my memory....what is the order of forecasts upcoming? Is it first thoughts, first draft, preliminary first final guess, first guess, second thoughts, first revision and guess, second draft, second guess, final thoughts, final draft, final wheel spin, final guess, first forecast still? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll say this. I honestly think at this point I’m looking at a range of 0 snow to up to 6” of snow. I think that’s very much within the realm of possibilities. I think that leaves a lot of room for big changes. Now if you paint a swath 200 miles wide and say snow is possible here on Sunday, and call that locked in, then yeah we’re locked in. Youre never gonna see models go from a trace to 20”. That’s not what I’m talking about. Right now we haven’t seen stability or consensus reached. We’re right at 100 though so that suggests we’re about to see guidance converge. Once that happens…recent history suggests there will be noise and outlier runs each cycle but whatever the preponderance consensus is will be close to the final result. If in the next 24 hours we see the Gfs and euro converge on a snowfall targeting southeast of DC again…then that’s probably going to be the end result. Maybe we sneak in a couple inches. Maybe we get nothing. I’m not even that worried about it. I’m in this game hunting the flush hits so frankly if we fringe or get skunked isn’t much difference to me. Both leave me equally unsatisfied. I don’t complain. Storms miss. Oh well. Just saying I’m in this for the big storms. And if guidance says it’s a miss once inside 100 hours it’s very rarely going to become anything significant and I’m not really interested in praying for some miracle trend just to eek out another 2” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: I fully expect the GFS to hold here at 18z. It’s been pretty locked in now for 3-4 consecutive runs. It is in it’s King wheelhouse. Just need that bullseye stripe to come north 30-40 miles. Or juice up the current stripe so as to include Leesburg in the 6-10 range. of course these are the type of comments that precede the following comments: next wide right wheres the storm might need a human sacrifice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Someone refresh my memory....what is the order of forecasts upcoming? Is it first thoughts, first draft, preliminary first final guess, first guess, second thoughts, first revision and guess, second draft, second guess, final thoughts, final draft, final wheel spin, final guess, first forecast still? You forgot the "phone a friend" forecast! But not sure where that fits in to the overall order! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Or juice up the current stripe so as to include Leesburg in the 6-10 range. of course these are the type of comments that precede the following comments: next wide right wheres the storm might need a human sacrifice Lol, I haven’t dropped the ‘We suck’ comment yet this year… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Latest NBM snow map for the hell of it. Waiting for HH GFS to get rolling while enjoying a HH Coffee Stout. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 23 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: DT just said 90% if Mid Atlantic will see snow this weekend It’s ALEET time, baby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Psu is already in his “big storm only” mode. Which doesn’t usually happen till late Feb or early March? Now I know things are perhaps winding down early this year…;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 @WinterWxLuvr if you want a snow of significance all im saying is hope in the next couple cycles we see guidance converge on a 6z Gfs type solution. Even the 12z is close enough that’s the kind of look 72-100 hours we can work with and get some minor adjustments to make it an event worth the time. But if the Gfs moves towards the euro and come tomorrow the majority of guidance had the snowfall southeast of 95…were pretty much cooked. People will say things like “it’s still 72 hours out plenty of time” to make themselves feel better but how often has that worked out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Psu is already in his “big storm only” mode. Which doesn’t usually happen till late Feb or early March? Now I know things are perhaps winding down early this year…;-) I think he is always in that mode lol. I lived up that way for 12 years (at 900 ft) and never felt like I was in some sort of magical place for snow. I never kicked a 1-3 incher out of bed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Lol, I haven’t dropped the ‘We suck’ comment yet this year… Lol, yes my list was the family friendly version lol. As time for snow runs shorter the reactions get slightly more violent when we get the rug pulled. Hoping this time we trend into a solid storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The model that sucks has an 18z run that doesn't (if you discount the sloppy precip depiction, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: The model that sucks has an 18z run that doesn't (if you discount the sloppy precip depiction, lol) Yeah its .5-.6 Precip for a good chunk of us. Just running a bit warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Psu is already in his “big storm only” mode. Which doesn’t usually happen till late Feb or early March? Now I know things are perhaps winding down early this year…;-) What are you talking about. I’m always in that mode. Only exception is around Xmas or if it’s a crazy cold pattern and I can build snowpack and keep it. Otherwise it’s go big or go home. I’m not really a big “snow” fan I’m a big snowstorm fan. Huge flakes and 3”/hour rates or bust. It doesn’t have to be huge totals. The squall where I got 3” in like 45 mins 2 years ago was awesome. But there has to be something dynamic about it. 3” of light snow that’s going to melt within a couple days does nothing for me. Back in 2015 I was annoying people because there was a 3-5” WAA wave storm 2 days out and I was rooting against it because there was a better setup to get a big amplified bomb right behind it but only if that WAA wave got squashed. I was 100% willing to kill a guaranteed 4” for like a 20% chance at a big storm. But I know those big storms are rare and unlikely any given threat and I’m not going to clog up the threads crying and complaining when they don’t happen. But it’s probably a good idea for people to know where my analysis is coming from. If someone else is just looking for 1-2” of snow they might get a more negative perception then is reality from my analysts since I’m only analyzing our chances of a flush hit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WinterWxLuvr if you want a snow of significance all im saying is hope in the next couple cycles we see guidance converge on a 6z Gfs type solution. Even the 12z is close enough that’s the kind of look 72-100 hours we can work with and get some minor adjustments to make it an event worth the time. But if the Gfs moves towards the euro and come tomorrow the majority of guidance had the snowfall southeast of 95…were pretty much cooked. People will say things like “it’s still 72 hours out plenty of time” to make themselves feel better but how often has that worked out? We are agreeing while seeming to disagree. I consider a 3-4” snow to be a big deal. If the euro, for instance, moves from 0” to 3” for my yard, I consider that a big move. Its all about perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 18Z RGEM is a pretty big improvement over its 12Z run. Leads me to believe it would be a decent event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: I think he is always in that mode lol. I lived up that way for 12 years (at 900 ft) and never felt like I was in some sort of magical place for snow. I never kicked a 1-3 incher out of bed. I don’t feel I have some right to said storms. I don’t feel slighted and go off when they don’t happen. And I won’t kick a 1-3” snow out of bed. But I’m not wasting time tracking that either. If it happens fine. But the target is higher to me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If someone else is just looking for 1-2” of snow they might get a more negative perception then is reality from my analysts since I’m only analyzing our chances of a flush hit. I’m not that person. I can interpret your posts as you intend. We truly look for different things and I understand that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 18Z RGEM is a pretty big improvement over its 12Z run. Leads me to believe it would be a decent event. It and the NAM together? What can go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 18Z RGEM is a pretty big improvement over its 12Z run. Leads me to believe it would be a decent event. RGEM woulda ended mega amped. Way west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 ICON looked better IMO. At least upstairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON looked better IMO. At least upstairs not bad. But im starting to think we are losing our 12-24 inch event 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, Ji said: not bad. But im starting to think we are losing our 12-24 inch event When was it ever 12-24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: When was it ever 12-24? IT wasn't ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: When was it ever 12-24? Where’s that man ruler meme 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: RGEM woulda ended mega amped. Way west It really looks nothing like the GFS, it leaves the southern stream behind and drops the polar vortex over Chicago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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