snowmagnet Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 https://twitter.com/anthonymweather/status/1491500660180799500?s=21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 55 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Allow me to translate. It might snow. It might not. We just can’t know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 IF we get anything out of this possible event, make sure you enjoy every minute of it! For many in this forum it looks like the last chance until December! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, Snowfan96 said: IF we get anything out of this possible event, make sure you enjoy every minute of it! For many in this forum it looks like the last chance until December! You’ve been preaching this crap all winter. Where’s our massive -PNA? Sinners you are going to hell!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 What does the NAM say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowfan96 said: IF we get anything out of this possible event, make sure you enjoy every minute of it! For many in this forum it looks like the last chance until December! Years like this one usually have a last say second week of March........since we are all in here quoting HM from a day ago....see i'm like the cool kids now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Allow me to translate. It might snow. It might not. We just can’t know. Yes. that was HM on that train, although he was leaning harder on "it might not" and adding "we probably know". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: IF we get anything out of this possible event, make sure you enjoy every minute of it! For many in this forum it looks like the last chance until December! that very well may not be correct. Plenty of March snow happens - especially up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Years like this one usually have a last say second week of March........since we are all in here quoting HM from a day ago....see i'm like the cool kids now I grabbed that because he updated today to say "still applies". Sorry. Here was today's update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You’ve been preaching this crap all winter. Where’s our massive -PNA? Sinners you are going to hell!! Have no fear, the massive -PNA is about to show its ugly head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 ^look at the EPS 500mb anomaly chart for Sunday the 13th at 12z and tell me how that’s numerically a negative PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: ^look at the EPS 500mb anomaly chart for Sunday the 13th at 12z and tell me how that’s numerically a negative PNA. Of course not, which is why I said AFTER this next “event” in my earlier post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: IF we get anything out of this possible event, make sure you enjoy every minute of it! For many in this forum it looks like the last chance until December! How many times do you intend to say this same thing in a slightly different way? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I grabbed that because he updated today to say "still applies". Sorry. Here was today's update: It seems like every meteorologist hedges every storm six ways to Sunday. There's always some complicating factors that make this or that storm special and impossible to know what's going to happen because the setup is just so complicated every single time. I dream of the day when there's a storm 5 days out and the Mets say "oh this one is easy, blizzard in DC in 5 days, lock it in". 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: ^look at the EPS 500mb anomaly chart for Sunday the 13th at 12z and tell me how that’s numerically a negative PNA. I wish people wouldn’t focus on those charts so much. The NAO chart was positive when there was a block right over Greenland back in December. Those things are calculated in ways that don’t always translate the same. That said he isn’t posting in good faith anyways he is a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: Of course not, which is why I said AFTER this next “event” in my earlier post. @snowfart69 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 19 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I grabbed that because he updated today to say "still applies". Sorry. Here was today's update: Your pessimism is clouding how you interpret that....at least I think it does...anywho....good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 @psuhoffman we were discussing whether the possibility exists for big model changes once we get within about 4 days. Was thinking about that and was thinking that if you’re talking temps I agree. It not gonna suddenly go from 40 and rain to 30 and snow. But when it’s delicate pieces that determine whether it’s dry or there’s 0.25-0.5 precip, then I think big changes can easily show up as you get close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The cold is better on the NAM this run. That is the only thing I am going to say about that wretched model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 WB 18Z NAM at 84, I know… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 DT just said 90% if Mid Atlantic will see snow this weekend 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: DT just said 90% if Mid Atlantic will see snow this weekend Ok about my earlier post...I need to rephrase. I wish one of the mets other than DT or JB would lock in a storm 5 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Mount Holly AFD.. we just cant know yet. For Saturday and Sunday...Low pressure tracks well to our north, however a strong cold front is forecast to cross our area by late in the day Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front will maximize the low-level warm air advection and despite cloud cover, afternoon temperatures are anticipated to get well into the 50s across the coastal plain where even some low 60s will be possible. To the north and west of here, temperatures may be held down some due to more cloud cover and a possible earlier arrival of the cold front. There may not be much in the way of precipitation with the frontal passage as the main initial forcing for ascent lifts well to our north and the upper-level trough axis is still well to our west. Shortwave energy along with a favorable mid to upper level jet though may produce a ribbon of better lift late Saturday night especially across the coastal plain. It will turn much colder and drier Saturday night in the wake of the cold front along with a northwesterly breeze. As we go through Sunday, our sensible weather will be determined from what develops offshore of the Carolinas. Temperature-wise it will be cold. Much of the guidance is in agreement that low pressure develops along Saturday`s frontal zone that is located offshore. This occurs as the large scale upper-level trough shifts closer to the East Coast. However the low pressure placement, track and intensity will depend on how far south and east the colder air presses and also if any interaction (phasing) starts to occur between the northern and southern stream energy. Some guidance now showing a sharper upper-level trough which results in a bit more phasing and therefore a closer to the coast placement of the surface low. The ensemble guidance offers variability and as a result there remains considerable uncertainty with the details. Despite the surface low tracking offshore, the positioning of an upper-level jet looks favorable resulting in a zone of enhanced forcing for ascent for a time Sunday, especially across our coastal plain, which could result in a period of snow. Given the uncertainty and accounting for some guidance shifting closer to the coast (the National Blend of Models, NBM, responding to this), increased the PoPs a little however we are still no higher than the chance range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: DT just said 90% if Mid Atlantic will see snow this weekend It’s over 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: @psuhoffman we were discussing whether the possibility exists for big model changes once we get within about 4 days. Was thinking about that and was thinking that if you’re talking temps I agree. It not gonna suddenly go from 40 and rain to 30 and snow. But when it’s delicate pieces that determine whether it’s dry or there’s 0.25-0.5 precip, then I think big changes can easily show up as you get close. Depends what you call big changes. The fringe of a storm moving 50 miles isn’t big Imo. We know the edges and banding don’t get pinned until the very end. But we haven’t seen huge synoptic changes once inside about 100 hours. We’re right at that now. And maybe we’re seeing convergence. Ukmet lost it’s crazy amped up solution from 0z. Gfs also trended a little south. Icon and Euro trended towards the Gfs. Toss the ggem as the outlier. Maybe there is another curve in the next 24 hours but if not the consensus of all that guidance is likely close to the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z NAM at 84, I know… Without the DGEX, we just can't know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I thought the NAM looked pretty good at 84. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: I thought the NAM looked pretty good at 84. I thought the NAM at 84 looked like the NAM at 84 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 LWX afternoon disco not bullish but also not discounting snow possibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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