WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Accounting for a bit of wet-bias in the GEFS, EPS and GEFS look pretty similar in precip swath placement? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Accounting for a bit of wet-bias in the GEFS, EPS and GEFS look pretty similar in precip swath placement? I'd agree -- though a bit of a wet bias doesn't fully describe it, haha. I was mostly just happy it didn't look like the GEPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Weenie model if I've ever seen it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He's cut! The Euro's cut! .....and it's a BAD cut! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Need to see more, but one animation I saw elsewhere suggests EPS has no members which look like the GGEM. As @psuhoffman, yesterdays 18z EPS had a shotgun of scenarios including some like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Need to see more, but one animation I saw elsewhere suggests EPS has no members which look like the GGEM. As @psuhoffman, yesterdays 18z EPS had a shotgun of scenarios including some like that. I'm astounded at the virtually ZERO southern stream (southern stream.. .what southern stream?) interaction. Trough doesn't go further south than northern KY where on the GFS it's in northern FL. Bananas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Need to see more, but one animation I saw elsewhere suggests EPS has no members which look like the GGEM. As @psuhoffman, yesterdays 18z EPS had a shotgun of scenarios including some like that. at a quick glance I didnt see much support for that in the EPS anymore. It lost that camp overnight mostly. Maybe its right here but the GGEM has been pretty awful lately. Oddly its overall scores are ok...kind of like the UKMET, its great at getting large scale hemispheric H5 anomalies but just flat out awful with synoptic details. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Need to see more, but one animation I saw elsewhere suggests EPS has no members which look like the GGEM. As @psuhoffman, yesterdays 18z EPS had a shotgun of scenarios including some like that. There is very little variation between the members. Almost all of them resemble the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: There is very little variation between the members. Almost all of them resemble the op. GEFS and EPS playing follow the leader makes things tough to truly assess the goalposts here (and in many situations). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 https://twitter.com/anthonymweather/status/1491500660180799500?s=21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 55 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Allow me to translate. It might snow. It might not. We just can’t know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 IF we get anything out of this possible event, make sure you enjoy every minute of it! For many in this forum it looks like the last chance until December! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, Snowfan96 said: IF we get anything out of this possible event, make sure you enjoy every minute of it! For many in this forum it looks like the last chance until December! You’ve been preaching this crap all winter. Where’s our massive -PNA? Sinners you are going to hell!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 What does the NAM say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowfan96 said: IF we get anything out of this possible event, make sure you enjoy every minute of it! For many in this forum it looks like the last chance until December! Years like this one usually have a last say second week of March........since we are all in here quoting HM from a day ago....see i'm like the cool kids now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Allow me to translate. It might snow. It might not. We just can’t know. Yes. that was HM on that train, although he was leaning harder on "it might not" and adding "we probably know". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: IF we get anything out of this possible event, make sure you enjoy every minute of it! For many in this forum it looks like the last chance until December! that very well may not be correct. Plenty of March snow happens - especially up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Years like this one usually have a last say second week of March........since we are all in here quoting HM from a day ago....see i'm like the cool kids now I grabbed that because he updated today to say "still applies". Sorry. Here was today's update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You’ve been preaching this crap all winter. Where’s our massive -PNA? Sinners you are going to hell!! Have no fear, the massive -PNA is about to show its ugly head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 ^look at the EPS 500mb anomaly chart for Sunday the 13th at 12z and tell me how that’s numerically a negative PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: ^look at the EPS 500mb anomaly chart for Sunday the 13th at 12z and tell me how that’s numerically a negative PNA. Of course not, which is why I said AFTER this next “event” in my earlier post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: IF we get anything out of this possible event, make sure you enjoy every minute of it! For many in this forum it looks like the last chance until December! How many times do you intend to say this same thing in a slightly different way? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I grabbed that because he updated today to say "still applies". Sorry. Here was today's update: It seems like every meteorologist hedges every storm six ways to Sunday. There's always some complicating factors that make this or that storm special and impossible to know what's going to happen because the setup is just so complicated every single time. I dream of the day when there's a storm 5 days out and the Mets say "oh this one is easy, blizzard in DC in 5 days, lock it in". 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: ^look at the EPS 500mb anomaly chart for Sunday the 13th at 12z and tell me how that’s numerically a negative PNA. I wish people wouldn’t focus on those charts so much. The NAO chart was positive when there was a block right over Greenland back in December. Those things are calculated in ways that don’t always translate the same. That said he isn’t posting in good faith anyways he is a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: Of course not, which is why I said AFTER this next “event” in my earlier post. @snowfart69 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 19 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I grabbed that because he updated today to say "still applies". Sorry. Here was today's update: Your pessimism is clouding how you interpret that....at least I think it does...anywho....good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 @psuhoffman we were discussing whether the possibility exists for big model changes once we get within about 4 days. Was thinking about that and was thinking that if you’re talking temps I agree. It not gonna suddenly go from 40 and rain to 30 and snow. But when it’s delicate pieces that determine whether it’s dry or there’s 0.25-0.5 precip, then I think big changes can easily show up as you get close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The cold is better on the NAM this run. That is the only thing I am going to say about that wretched model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 WB 18Z NAM at 84, I know… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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