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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Need to see more, but one animation I saw elsewhere suggests EPS has no members which look like the GGEM. As @psuhoffman, yesterdays 18z EPS had a shotgun of scenarios including some like that.

I'm astounded at the virtually ZERO southern stream (southern stream.. .what southern stream?) interaction. Trough doesn't go further south than northern KY where on the GFS it's in northern FL. Bananas.

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Need to see more, but one animation I saw elsewhere suggests EPS has no members which look like the GGEM. As @psuhoffman, yesterdays 18z EPS had a shotgun of scenarios including some like that.

at a quick glance I didnt see much support for that in the EPS anymore.  It lost that camp overnight mostly.  Maybe its right here but the GGEM has been pretty awful lately.  Oddly its overall scores are ok...kind of like the UKMET, its great at getting large scale hemispheric H5 anomalies but just flat out awful with synoptic details.  

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Just now, Snowfan96 said:

IF we get anything out of this possible event, make sure you enjoy every minute of it!  For many in this forum it looks like the last chance until December!

You’ve been preaching this crap all winter. Where’s our massive -PNA?

Sinners you are going to hell!!

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1 minute ago, Snowfan96 said:

IF we get anything out of this possible event, make sure you enjoy every minute of it!  For many in this forum it looks like the last chance until December!

Years like this one usually have a last say second week of March........since we are all in here quoting HM from a day ago....see i'm like the cool kids now

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11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I grabbed that because he updated today to say "still applies". Sorry.  

Here was today's update:

 

It seems like every meteorologist hedges every storm six ways to Sunday.  There's always some complicating factors that make this or that storm special and impossible to know what's going to happen because the setup is just so complicated every single time.  

 

I dream of the day when there's a storm 5 days out and the Mets say "oh this one is easy, blizzard in DC in 5 days, lock it in".

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^look at the EPS 500mb anomaly chart for Sunday the 13th at 12z and tell me how that’s numerically a negative PNA.

I wish people wouldn’t focus on those charts so much. The NAO chart was positive when there was a block right over Greenland back in December.  Those things are calculated in ways that don’t always translate the same.   That said he isn’t posting in good faith anyways he is a troll. 

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@psuhoffman we were discussing whether the possibility exists for big model changes once we get within about 4 days. Was thinking about that and was thinking that if you’re talking temps I agree. It not gonna suddenly go from 40 and rain to 30 and snow. But when it’s delicate pieces that determine whether it’s dry or there’s 0.25-0.5 precip, then I think big changes can easily show up as you get close.

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