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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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LES, inland runners, NS waves, SW parade riding the boundary… W NY seems to be the winner every damn time this winter. 84.8 is the annual average at KBUF. They’ll be at 65+ by 2/5. Bastards. Lol. 
 

All I want is one coastal hugger tucked off the coast of OCMD. SHEESH. :ee:

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2 hours ago, Ji said:
2 hours ago, Solution Man said:
Brutal run…like watching GFS paint dry

3 straigh southern sliders that won't climb coast. Just an awful winter

The Monday/Tuesday event might turn into something for the western burbs?  The air mass is kind of gross, but climo is so favorable right now, you can still squeeze something out of a so-so pattern

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5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m wondering if maybe a threat develops early week. Think @CAPE mentioned something about that 

This is the general look for early to mid next week, with a series of weakish lows tracking to our south and offshore. The air mass at that point is meh.

1644343200-8kNVBqmGFzg.png

Tuesday into Wed has perked up a bit on the means, so worth watching, but a light event with marginal temps probably wont do much.

1644300000-hOM9t2Vcgyw.png

 

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Can’t speak for anyone else, but for me I know I found it much easier to get up this morning and click on the number 4 instead of 141. Really simplifies things.

Also impressed with all of the winter weather we are now tracking.

Are we tracking something? I need to look I guess.  

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Maybe we get better trends with one of the waves tracking across the south next week, otherwise it may end up a pretty boring period. The very end of next week into the following weekend looks colder and more active. Latest GFS op runs like V-day for an Anafrontal type deal.

1645185600-DQGkvXu2TUY.png

1645185600-DJM91xEfYB8.png

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Barring some shift in guidance... I think its blinds closed for snow for the next 7-10 days or so.

Quite frankly I think a short mental break from tracking might not be a bad thing. Just think about the last month or so...a LOT of tracking. Joy the first week, but a lot of angst from coming up just short the rest of the month. Time for a reset (mentally and hopefully for renewed snow chances this month).

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Quite frankly I think a short mental break from tracking might not be a bad thing. Just think about the last month or so...a LOT of tracking. Joy the first week, but a lot of angst from coming up just short the rest of the month. Time for a reset (mentally and hopefully for renewed snow chances this month).

We can do a sacrifice while we wait

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Quite frankly I think a short mental break from tracking might not be a bad thing. Just think about the last month or so...a LOT of tracking. Joy the first week, but a lot of angst from coming up just short the rest of the month. Time for a reset (mentally and hopefully for renewed snow chances this month).

We get 8 months every year for a mental break. Sure when things are active it gets exhausting but I'll take that any winter I can get it. Give me one threat after another. I want 2014 every year. Not too mention punting a 10 day period in early February during peak climo is awful.

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9 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

We get 8 months every year for a mental break. Sure when things are active it gets exhausting but I'll take that any winter I can get it. Give me one threat after another. I want 2014 every year. Not too mention punting a 10 day period in early February during peak climo is awful.

Yeah it is awful...but I mean not like we got much of a choice! Bone dry next 7-10 days unless we get a bit of a miracle with the two weaker waves. I guess maybe I'm referring to having a break from the tracking disappointment rut that comes after a week of said tracking coming up short. That post-missed storm mental malaise is exhausting by itself.

I'd love a 2014 year--as long as we can have the same success rate! Last month was more exhausting tracking what didn't happen after the first week. You can only see so many NS vorts ruin things before wanting a break from that...

All that being said, I totally get your position...we got 8 months to have a break, and punting for the next 7-10 days does suck. Hope we can track something again after that!

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It’s been active. So a break makes sense. It’s just a tougher pill to swallow because most people didn’t score during the active period. 
 

I personally suggest the armorycam app in Syracuse. Good webcam for both day and night. rain is just changing to snow now.  They are getting 12-18 inches. Put it on your tv, make some hot cocoa. Watch the radar up there.  You can almost trick your brain into thinking you are there. 

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20 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

It’s been active. So a break makes sense. It’s just a tougher pill to swallow because most people didn’t score during the active period. 
 

I personally suggest the armorycam app in Syracuse. Good webcam for both day and night. rain is just changing to snow now.  They are getting 12-18 inches. Put it on your tv, make some hot cocoa. Watch the radar up there.  You can almost trick your brain into thinking you are there. 

Or chase. I am always prepared to do it to get my fix any given winter. Been lucky here so far and I haven't had to.

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32 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

It’s been active. So a break makes sense. It’s just a tougher pill to swallow because most people didn’t score during the active period. 
 

I personally suggest the armorycam app in Syracuse. Good webcam for both day and night. rain is just changing to snow now.  They are getting 12-18 inches. Put it on your tv, make some hot cocoa. Watch the radar up there.  You can almost trick your brain into thinking you are there. 

This might be a good one to check out around Happy Hour.

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