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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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GFS keeps the north and southern streams more separate. Euro and GGEM mostly say the northern stream is the show with Euro somewhat of a blend between GFS and GGEM at H5 actually. The differences in their trough axes are like 100mi or so. At 102hrs they are all neutrally tilted but GFS is along the West side of MI, euro and GGEM are over Detroit. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS keeps the north and southern streams more separate. Euro and GGEM mostly say the northern stream is the show with Euro somewhat of a blend between GFS and GGEM at H5 actually. The differences in their trough axes are like 100mi or so. At 102hrs they are all neutrally tilted but GFS is along the West side of MI, euro and GGEM are over Detroit. 

So in other words all 3 are wrong currently

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Just now, Quasievil said:

Man I'd hate to say it but in a La Nina, this result seems more likely, IMO.

This was a pretty massive jump from the euro so I don’t think we’ve found anything approaching the final solution. EPS will be interesting. 
 

The northern stream dropping into the trough could be really good. But we do want some southern stream involved. That affects moisture northward so we perhaps at least get that frontal snow even if we miss the coastal. Hard to lean against the seasonal/Niña trend for areas closer to the coast to be favored for the coastal. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

This was a pretty massive jump from the euro so I don’t think we’ve found anything approaching the final solution. EPS will be interesting. 
 

The northern stream dropping into the trough could be really good. But we do want some southern stream involved. That affects moisture northward so we perhaps at least get that frontal snow even if we miss the coastal. Hard to lean against the seasonal/Niña trend for areas closer to the coast to be favored for the coastal. 

I feel like the front end is going to make everyone happiest in this forum. Miller B type coastal storms during a La Nina and lack of blocking is not going to work well for everyone. IMO.

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3 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

I feel like the front end is going to make everyone happiest in this forum. Miller B type coastal storms during a La Nina and lack of blocking is not going to work well for everyone. IMO.

But it’s all or nothing. If the NS dominant solutions are correct there won’t be much front end because there is no moisture transport into the boundary. 

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30 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z Globals are all on the same page….

3D12DA5B-8181-4AD3-BD40-686DF4414E79.png

2B3695DB-CB5E-4806-B98D-9192C2C7708C.png

9337548B-3A0C-47AA-ABE3-34AF3C199CA6.png

So since we are under 120 hrs and closer to 4 days now, I see the models have a good handle on things and are just tweaking the fringe areas now.:wacko:

Im certain someone posted yesterday how advanced modeling is now are there aren't major shifts and changes at this range we just entered... merely fine tuning along the fringes. Assuming this is the exception to that rule?

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