psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z Globals are all on the same page…. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GFS keeps the north and southern streams more separate. Euro and GGEM mostly say the northern stream is the show with Euro somewhat of a blend between GFS and GGEM at H5 actually. The differences in their trough axes are like 100mi or so. At 102hrs they are all neutrally tilted but GFS is along the West side of MI, euro and GGEM are over Detroit. So in other words all 3 are wrong currently 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The northern stream comes in too far east so it acts more like a kicker than a phase. Obviously some huge variance in that strength and position between the GGEM, Euro, and GFS. Man I'd hate to say it but in a La Nina, this result seems more likely, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 You poor souls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesrck63 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I guess its up to NAM at 84 hours to break the tie. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, Quasievil said: Man I'd hate to say it but in a La Nina, this result seems more likely, IMO. This was a pretty massive jump from the euro so I don’t think we’ve found anything approaching the final solution. EPS will be interesting. The northern stream dropping into the trough could be really good. But we do want some southern stream involved. That affects moisture northward so we perhaps at least get that frontal snow even if we miss the coastal. Hard to lean against the seasonal/Niña trend for areas closer to the coast to be favored for the coastal. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: This was a pretty massive jump from the euro so I don’t think we’ve found anything approaching the final solution. EPS will be interesting. The northern stream dropping into the trough could be really good. But we do want some southern stream involved. That affects moisture northward so we perhaps at least get that frontal snow even if we miss the coastal. Hard to lean against the seasonal/Niña trend for areas closer to the coast to be favored for the coastal. I feel like the front end is going to make everyone happiest in this forum. Miller B type coastal storms during a La Nina and lack of blocking is not going to work well for everyone. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I’ll take a blend of the GFS, Euro and Canadian for the win. usually when you take blends--you end up getting nothing 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Quasievil said: I feel like the front end is going to make everyone happiest in this forum. Miller B type coastal storms during a La Nina and lack of blocking is not going to work well for everyone. IMO. But it’s all or nothing. If the NS dominant solutions are correct there won’t be much front end because there is no moisture transport into the boundary. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: usually when you take blends--you end up getting nothing Touché. I just hope this trends like January 3rd and i get a foot. Also rooting for the NW crew, but typical backyard sport disclaimer applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: usually when you take blends--you end up getting nothing Fact checked and true lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 We need Chill to come in and set up straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You poor souls I was just hangry. I'm good now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I was just hangry. I'm good now. "Mappy, eat a Snickers. You become a super weenie when you're hungry" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: "Mappy, eat a Snickers. You become a super weenie when you're hungry" Nah. I'm good. Mattie is right, snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 30 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z Globals are all on the same page…. So since we are under 120 hrs and closer to 4 days now, I see the models have a good handle on things and are just tweaking the fringe areas now. Im certain someone posted yesterday how advanced modeling is now are there aren't major shifts and changes at this range we just entered... merely fine tuning along the fringes. Assuming this is the exception to that rule? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, mappy said: I was just hangry. I'm good now. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Is this in the weenie handbook? Was an addendum made for this in the newer versions? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 HM really not weenie-ing there - he's super skeptical. But if poorly modeled leaves room for hope, I guess, folks can have hope. But I was drawn to the bit about the shredding - that part seems right given how the season has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Accounting for a bit of wet-bias in the GEFS, EPS and GEFS look pretty similar in precip swath placement? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Accounting for a bit of wet-bias in the GEFS, EPS and GEFS look pretty similar in precip swath placement? I'd agree -- though a bit of a wet bias doesn't fully describe it, haha. I was mostly just happy it didn't look like the GEPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Weenie model if I've ever seen it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He's cut! The Euro's cut! .....and it's a BAD cut! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Need to see more, but one animation I saw elsewhere suggests EPS has no members which look like the GGEM. As @psuhoffman, yesterdays 18z EPS had a shotgun of scenarios including some like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Need to see more, but one animation I saw elsewhere suggests EPS has no members which look like the GGEM. As @psuhoffman, yesterdays 18z EPS had a shotgun of scenarios including some like that. I'm astounded at the virtually ZERO southern stream (southern stream.. .what southern stream?) interaction. Trough doesn't go further south than northern KY where on the GFS it's in northern FL. Bananas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Need to see more, but one animation I saw elsewhere suggests EPS has no members which look like the GGEM. As @psuhoffman, yesterdays 18z EPS had a shotgun of scenarios including some like that. at a quick glance I didnt see much support for that in the EPS anymore. It lost that camp overnight mostly. Maybe its right here but the GGEM has been pretty awful lately. Oddly its overall scores are ok...kind of like the UKMET, its great at getting large scale hemispheric H5 anomalies but just flat out awful with synoptic details. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Need to see more, but one animation I saw elsewhere suggests EPS has no members which look like the GGEM. As @psuhoffman, yesterdays 18z EPS had a shotgun of scenarios including some like that. There is very little variation between the members. Almost all of them resemble the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: There is very little variation between the members. Almost all of them resemble the op. GEFS and EPS playing follow the leader makes things tough to truly assess the goalposts here (and in many situations). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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