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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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I don’t think the 6z Euro would end up like the 6z GFS looking at H90 at 500.  Energy on the Euro is not as sharp/consolidated as the GFS but someone smarter than me can comment.
image.thumb.png.6c69c8f67fbd111f951d5f104f216338.png
Euro hates this event. Gfs and euro almost never in sync this winter
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22 minutes ago, Ji said:
39 minutes ago, nj2va said:
I don’t think the 6z Euro would end up like the 6z GFS looking at H90 at 500.  Energy on the Euro is not as sharp/consolidated as the GFS but someone smarter than me can comment.
image.thumb.png.6c69c8f67fbd111f951d5f104f216338.png

Euro hates this event. Gfs and euro almost never in sync this winter

GFS looks locked in now and today is Wednesday. This is the GFS’ last shot to prove King worthy. If it blows this, it’s over and GFS goes back to being a JV model.

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11 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

This is the mid Atlantic forum right :)

I personally didnt see a obvious cluster that leaned at one solution....hence the kitchen sink of solutions imo. Maybe you are correct but  I always like seeing amped members in the mix . 

 

But don't worry...the SS of  93' redux is coming :D

I know this is late but what I meant was when I saw a few of the crazy amped solutions still didn’t really have an impressive snow presentation I was curious (how does a sub 990 low over the bay not have a 12”+ area for example) and when I dig a little it seemed to be because the snored solutions were developing the NS wave. The reason we saw mostly misses to the SE and NW with no big flush hits like the gefs was there weren’t really  solutions that keyed on the SS and amplified that wave and that’s my preferred solution. 
 

We could get some snow from an all NS solution but I’m fully big game hunting now. I’m sitting on the least snow ever on this date of 16 years up here and I’ve seen plenty of minor snows. At this point the only thing that can save this season from being on my personal hate list would be some kind of dynamic singular event. If all were going to get are minor snows I’ll pass. But I don’t begrudge anyone chasing whatever they want!  I’ll track anything. But I’m rooting for the big dog options even if it’s lower probability. 
 

So far this season reminds me of some of the Nina’s in the 50s, 70s and 80s that weren’t that warm and ended near normal or only slightly below at DC but we’re awful here.  Makes sense. If you get a cold but generally blah pattern all it takes is a couple hits to get DC near normal. If DC finished with 14” and we get 18” that was a top 50% year there and a bottom 10% here. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I know this is late but what I meant was when I saw a few of the crazy amped solutions still didn’t really have an impressive snow presentation I was curious (how does a sub 990 low over the bay not have a 12”+ area for example) and when I dig a little it seemed to be because the snored solutions were developing the NS wave. The reason we saw mostly misses to the SE and NW with no big flush hits like the gefs was there weren’t really  solutions that keyed on the SS and amplified that wave and that’s my preferred solution. 
 

We could get some snow from an all NS solution but I’m fully big game hunting now. I’m sitting on the least snow ever on this date of 16 years up here and I’ve seen plenty of minor snows. At this point the only thing that can save this season from being on my personal hate list would be some kind of dynamic singular event. If all were going to get are minor snows I’ll pass. But I don’t begrudge anyone chasing whatever they want!  I’ll track anything. But I’m rooting for the big dog options even if it’s lower probability. 
 

So far this season reminds me of some of the Nina’s in the 50s, 70s and 80s that weren’t that warm and ended near normal or only slightly below at DC but we’re awful here.  Makes sense. If you get a cold but generally blah pattern all it takes is a couple hits to get DC near normal. If DC finished with 14” and we get 18” that was a top 50% year there and a bottom 10% here. 

It’s Feb 9. There’s enough time for a lot of snow.

Get ready, it’s coming. Lol

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