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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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27 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Screw it, Ill take the consolation prize. Thats cold powder on the GFS at 12z..juice that northern stream up slightly more and maybe we all get a cold fluff of 2-3" out of it

I tend to agree. GGEM also had 1-2” this way.

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not exactly. You’re right wrt the timing. But that’s only part of the equation. Imo our bigger problem is the spacing. Conservation of energy laws say we do know simply by “how much is going on” that our odds are low. We need a more amplified solution. The more crap is flying around in the NS flow the less likely anything can amplify more.  So simply the fact there is so much going on is bad. It’s complicated. We don’t do complicated. Our winning snow setups are typically “keep it simple stupid”. That’s why our absolute best pattern possible is a split flow NAO block with cold in place. . NS is out of the way. Not all these stupid waves flyinh across to squads and flatten the SS waves. And a block to stop the resulting amplifications from cutting. 

That’s why I think the timing is huge. We need a little phasing to get one of these strong enough to overcome some of the spacing issues because that’s the piece I don’t see improving. Possibly a little when the issue is over the ne because those tend to move out faster than modeled

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14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don’t be surprised if the storm around day 10 trends to our biggest threat of the year. We haven’t seen a storm in a long time blow up like that to our west. I could see that trending below us and for once that one seems to have a little power behind it.

NOW yer talkin!

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After seeing the euro, I can see how getting that northern stream snow (a lot like the “PRE” snow event we had) requires the southern stream to at least get neutral tilted so it can advect some moisture northward. Northern stream actually looked better on the Euro vs GFS/GGEM, but its southern stream remains positively tilted and so there’s no moisture to wring out as snow.

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Little clipper Monday night but by the time it gets to us its mainly pity flakes

That feature has been getting stronger on every run I've seen... Has Miller B potential (DUCKS) if spacing would allow it.

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

 

 

stayed in the area a few years ago on a snowmobile trip.  they dig holes in the ice and put small pine trees in the holes so they freeze in the lake for trail markers.  good thing because the one day we were there there was high winds and blizzard conditions and without those trees for markers it would have been very easy to get lost on the lake.  

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don’t be surprised if the storm around day 10 trends to our biggest threat of the year. We haven’t seen a storm in a long time blow up like that to our west. I could see that trending below us and for once that one seems to have a little power behind it.

Kinda already showing that. Look at euro changes with this system

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