aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Potentially Sunday. But potentially no Sunday but maybe Monday. Potentially though VD weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 27 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Screw it, Ill take the consolation prize. Thats cold powder on the GFS at 12z..juice that northern stream up slightly more and maybe we all get a cold fluff of 2-3" out of it I tend to agree. GGEM also had 1-2” this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not exactly. You’re right wrt the timing. But that’s only part of the equation. Imo our bigger problem is the spacing. Conservation of energy laws say we do know simply by “how much is going on” that our odds are low. We need a more amplified solution. The more crap is flying around in the NS flow the less likely anything can amplify more. So simply the fact there is so much going on is bad. It’s complicated. We don’t do complicated. Our winning snow setups are typically “keep it simple stupid”. That’s why our absolute best pattern possible is a split flow NAO block with cold in place. . NS is out of the way. Not all these stupid waves flyinh across to squads and flatten the SS waves. And a block to stop the resulting amplifications from cutting. That’s why I think the timing is huge. We need a little phasing to get one of these strong enough to overcome some of the spacing issues because that’s the piece I don’t see improving. Possibly a little when the issue is over the ne because those tend to move out faster than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: VD weekend? I’m not getting tested for that 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I tend to agree. GGEM also had 1-2” this way. I could agree more. Im taking the family to Canaan Valley this weekend for the first time. Hopefully we get some upslope fluff if nothing else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 In other news; 60 on Saturday?! That will probably feel hot to us. I’m looking forward to the spring fever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Don’t be surprised if the storm around day 10 trends to our biggest threat of the year. We haven’t seen a storm in a long time blow up like that to our west. I could see that trending below us and for once that one seems to have a little power behind it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Even JB isn’t too hopeful about the threat for 2/13-2/14…that alone tells you this is unlikely to materialize! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Yeoman said: Here's some php.. don't worry, my 5th grade niece was able to figure it out https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conusncep.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t be surprised if the storm around day 10 trends to our biggest threat of the year. We haven’t seen a storm in a long time blow up like that to our west. I could see that trending below us and for once that one seems to have a little power behind it. NOW yer talkin! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Euro sucks, doesnt even give us enough northern stream love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 In case anyone was on pins and needles for the Euro...its not particularly close for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Euro is worse for the Valentines day threat compared to its 0z run, not what we needed but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 After seeing the euro, I can see how getting that northern stream snow (a lot like the “PRE” snow event we had) requires the southern stream to at least get neutral tilted so it can advect some moisture northward. Northern stream actually looked better on the Euro vs GFS/GGEM, but its southern stream remains positively tilted and so there’s no moisture to wring out as snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Little clipper Monday night but by the time it gets to us its mainly pity flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Little clipper Monday night but by the time it gets to us its mainly pity flakes That feature has been getting stronger on every run I've seen... Has Miller B potential (DUCKS) if spacing would allow it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 story of this winter. 1 step forward, 8 leaps back 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: story of this winter. 1 step forward, 8 leaps back story of your post quality too 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: What day is this potential non storm supposed to happen or not happen? We simply just can't know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: story of your post quality too He's not wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ji said: story of every winter. 1 step forward, 8 leaps back Fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: story of your post quality too Sans the "1 step forward" he mentions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ji said: It Maine. Kinda typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ji said: stayed in the area a few years ago on a snowmobile trip. they dig holes in the ice and put small pine trees in the holes so they freeze in the lake for trail markers. good thing because the one day we were there there was high winds and blizzard conditions and without those trees for markers it would have been very easy to get lost on the lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t be surprised if the storm around day 10 trends to our biggest threat of the year. We haven’t seen a storm in a long time blow up like that to our west. I could see that trending below us and for once that one seems to have a little power behind it. Kinda already showing that. Look at euro changes with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 WB 12Z Can ensembles my pick of the midday runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Kinda already showing that. Look at euro changes with this system Either that or I'd settle for that turning into a nice 50/50! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Snowfan96 said: Even JB isn’t too hopeful about the threat for 2/13-2/14…that alone tells you this is unlikely to materialize! It's over. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Snowfan96 said: Even JB isn’t too hopeful about the threat for 2/13-2/14…that alone tells you this is unlikely to materialize! We have a chance!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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