February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey I do the WDI around here My WDI says we are indeed due for a big one...but not sure if this month or next year...

2 problems with this narrative. 1) big (let’s say a widespread 10”+) storms dont just happen because of time. They happen when the pattern supports. Yes there is a random typical mean frequency to them simply because by random chance the patterns that support them tend to happen maybe a dozen times a decade and odds say we hit on several of those chances and so normally we will get several of them every decade.  But if the pattern isn’t right they won’t happen just because it’s time. 
 

2) because of typical frequencies within the variance there will be random patterns but it’s like a coin toss. The odds of getting 10 heads in a row is extremely rare. But once you had 9 heads it doesn’t change the fact it’s still 50/50 what the outcome of the 10th flip will be. Once you get 9 heads your chance of 10 is now 50/50 regardless of how bad the chances were at the start. I’ve done that math before to show that the chances of getting a big snow or a big year are about the same (if you ignore the pattern) going into every year regardless of what the outcome the previous year was. The patterns are simply random due to typical frequencies within the chaos. 

[Grothar of Herndon]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Y'all need to stop with the Miller ABCZ #^%@&!! 

 

Agree! We have beat A or B to death  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

2 problems with this narrative. 1) big (let’s say a widespread 10”+) storms dont just happen because of time. They happen when the pattern supports. Yes there is a random typical mean frequency to them simply because by random chance the patterns that support them tend to happen maybe a dozen times a decade and odds say we hit on several of those chances and so normally we will get several of them every decade.  But if the pattern isn’t right they won’t happen just because it’s time. 
 

2) because of typical frequencies within the variance there will be random patterns but it’s like a coin toss. The odds of getting 10 heads in a row is extremely rare. But once you had 9 heads it doesn’t change the fact it’s still 50/50 what the outcome of the 10th flip will be. Once you get 9 heads your chance of 10 is now 50/50 regardless of how bad the chances were at the start. I’ve done that math before to show that the chances of getting a big snow or a big year are about the same (if you ignore the pattern) going into every year regardless of what the outcome reboots year was. The patterns are simply random due to typical frequencies within the chaos. 

Yeah but if it's a better pattern is it really the same odds? If you're in a pattern (i.e LA nina) that has more misses than hits, I'd argue your odds are better just by having less junk against ya. No guarantees...just better odds. Just like if you have a block your chances are better without one. So if ya have SS dominance your odds are better than NS...

[Maestrobjwa]

Man y'all ain't puttin' this on me...I ain't start the Miller B thing...I just said nina, lol

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man I ain't start the Miller B thing...I just said nina, lol

Ninas are northern stream dominant. There is either no stj, or it's weak/diffuse. Forget the Miller labels- nothing to do with ENSO really. You are conflating 2 different concepts. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but if it's a better pattern is it really the same odds? If you're in a pattern (i.e LA nina) that has more misses than hits, I'd argue your odds are better just by having less junk against ya. No guarantees...just better odds. Just like if you have a block your chances are better without one. So if ya have SS dominance your odds are better than NS...

Yea of course the pattern matters. My argument was irrespective of the pattern the time since our last snow is irrelevant 

[WinterWxLuvr]

35 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So the Miller B, then...is just when it's all NS and transfers at our latitude then bombs out? Rather than a sloppy phase that comes together too late? (I know there was debate over the previous NE blizzard, lol)

Pretty much, yes

[SnowDreamer]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea of course the pattern matters. My argument was irrespective of the pattern the time since our last snow is irrelevant 

It’s the classic statistical fallacy that the coin somehow “remembers” whether it was heads or tails on the last n flips.

[Ji]

what a disappointing run...especially after the 00z promise

[WinterWxLuvr]

The gfs is literally all over the place from run to run with both the timing and location of all the pieces. I don’t think I’d trust any solution it spits out right now until some consistency is achieved. I’ll bet the gefs will spit out a few good storms.

[CAPE]

This is still a work in progress. That GFS run is not likely going to be the final answer for the actual ground truth outcome.

It could be much worse. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is still a work in progress. That GFS run is not likely going to be the final answer for the actual ground truth outcome.

It could be much worse. 

Agree totally 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Ninas are northern stream dominant. There is either no stj, or it's weak/diffuse. Forget the Miller labels- nothing to do with ENSO really. You are conflating 2 different concepts. 

I never mentioned Miller B in my original comment... @WinterWxLuvr responded with that! I was thinking more about the NS dominance of Ninas and all the vorts screaming across and such. Now one thing I have learned that an stj in a nina doesn't mean too much without blocking...and also that it can be interfered with in a NS dominant 

[CAPE]

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I never mentioned Miller B in my original comment... @WinterWxLuvr responded with that! I was thinking more about the NS dominance of Ninas and all the vorts screaming across and such. Now one thing I have learned that an stj in a nina doesn't mean too much without blocking...and also that it can be interfered with in a NS dominant 

Without the northern stream you wouldn’t have anything right now. It’s not so much that it’s coming from the northern stream. It’s the fact that the whole thing is too far east and the timing is off. You need to drop the blaming everything on the fact that we are in a Nina. You’ve been doing it since September. We just need better timing, location and spacing.

[psuhoffman]

Gfs went the wrong way.  Same problem as always. Too much going on in the NS. 2 doesn’t allow 1 to amplify. 
 

Im also kinda over getting excited when we see a “trend” in guidance that takes us from “out of it” to “slightly less out of it”.  It’s a fallacy to assume that trend continues.  
 

This isn’t dead but it’s low probability. Don’t think I’m saying it’s totally not gonna happen. But I’m not getting excited until guidance actually supports something.  I’m tired of entering the 100 hour threshold saying “we’re close if we just get this and that trend”. No. Screw that. That almost never works. We just get frustrated. I’d rather enter the final 100 hours with the preponderance of guidance showing a flush hit and not needing a bunch of things to change in our favor. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Save yourself the trouble. It’s gonna be P10.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Gfs went the wrong way.  Same problem as always. Too much going on in the NS. 2 doesn’t allow 1 to amplify. 
 

Im also kinda over getting excited when we see a “trend” in guidance that takes us from “out of it” to “slightly less out of it”.  It’s a fallacy to assume that trend continues.  
 

This isn’t dead but it’s low probability. Don’t think I’m saying it’s totally not gonna happen. But I’m not getting excited until guidance actually supports something.  I’m tired of entering the 100 hour threshold saying “we’re close if we just get this and that trend”. No. Screw that. That almost never works. We just get frustrated. I’d rather enter the final 100 hours with the preponderance of guidance showing a flush hit and not needing a bunch of things to change in our favor. 

First we have to get 2 runs in a row to resemble each other. I’ll form an opinion once that happens. Speaking gfs only here.

[North Balti Zen]

Quote

Gfs went the wrong way.  Same problem as always. Too much going on in the NS. 2 doesn’t allow 1 to amplify. 

I know who I blame for that

[CAPE]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Without the northern stream you wouldn’t have anything right now. It’s not so much that it’s coming from the northern stream. It’s the fact that the whole thing is too far east and the timing is off. You need to drop the blaming everything on the fact that we are in a Nina. You’ve been doing it since September. We just need better timing, location and spacing.

Flow is fast and progressive. If we had blocking similar to last winter with the Pacific state we have had for the past month, I bet no one here would ever mention the ENSO state. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

It’s also a fallacy to say “too much going on in the ns” and then say it’s not going to happen which is in effect saying we know what is going to happen in the ns. We don’t. Not at this time range.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Without the northern stream you wouldn’t have anything right now. It’s not so much that it’s coming from the northern stream. It’s the fact that the whole thing is too far east and the timing is off. You need to drop the blaming everything on the fact that we are in a Nina. You’ve been doing it since September. We just need better timing, location and spacing.

So you're saying that an NS dominant pattern doesn't have much to do with our struggles? Forgive me, but after being on here as we've had 4 ninas in the last 6 years...and the problem I repeatedly see IS that ns dominance making things more difficult (and yes spinning more you-know-whats), it's hard not to draw thar conclusion. And I'm not saying other enso states can't fail. But it seems to me that the ninas have the most junk to deal with. But that's another debate, I guess: Which ENSO state is the most hostile? 

[Baltimorewx]

Screw it, Ill take the consolation prize. Thats cold powder on the GFS at 12z..juice that northern stream up slightly more and maybe we all get a cold fluff of 2-3" out of it

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs went the wrong way.  Same problem as always. Too much going on in the NS. 2 doesn’t allow 1 to amplify. 
 

Im also kinda over getting excited when we see a “trend” in guidance that takes us from “out of it” to “slightly less out of it”.  It’s a fallacy to assume that trend continues.  
 

This isn’t dead but it’s low probability. Don’t think I’m saying it’s totally not gonna happen. But I’m not getting excited until guidance actually supports something.  I’m tired of entering the 100 hour threshold saying “we’re close if we just get this and that trend”. No. Screw that. That almost never works. We just get frustrated. I’d rather enter the final 100 hours with the preponderance of guidance showing a flush hit and not needing a bunch of things to change in our favor. 

I couldn't agree more. Over the past several years models have gotten so good that you rarely see wholesale changes inside of 4 days anymore. Sure you get noise level changes that might bump your totals some or take some away but if your squarely out of the game at day 4 odds are your out of the game. Works both ways. If your a flush hit at day 4 your probably going to see something even if it trends the wrong way.

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Flow is fast and progressive. If we had blocking similar to last winter with the Pacific state we have had for the past month, I bet no one here would ever mention the ENSO state. 

This. That's what was frustrating as heck last year. I think one storm that January we even had the low tucked in at the coast but it was just too warm! (And PSU was using his exclamation points, lol)

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

First we have to get 2 runs in a row to resemble each other. I’ll form an opinion once that happens. Speaking gfs only here.

But we do…there are goalposts. Those goalposts haven’t narrowed completely yet…but the outcomes seem to very between not even close and kinda close. Yes timing differences determine just how badly the NS messes it up and that determines if it’s not close or close. But you know what we’re not seeing?  A bunch of flush hit outcomes mixed in there. That means imo that while it’s possible the wave spacing makes it very unlikely. Even the better runs with better timing are still not good enough.  
 

Is it possible guidance converges on the absolutely perfect timing and wave spacing we need for this to work?  Yes. Is it likely no.  What I’m seeing is that there are simply too many vorts embedded in the NS coming across too fast to make the amplification we need likely. 

[CAPE]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So you're saying that an NS dominant pattern doesn't have much to do with our struggles? Forgive me, but after being on here as we've had 4 ninas in the last 6 years...and the problem I repeatedly see IS that ns dominance making things more difficult (and yes spinning more you-know-whats), it's hard not to draw thar conclusion. And I'm not saying other enso states can't fail. But it seems to me that the ninas have the most junk to deal with. But that's another debate, I guess: Which ENSO state is the most hostile? 

The primary problem last winter was no available actual cold air. That can happen in a NINO or Neutral too. Overall Ninas have worked out well for my yard recently- better than Neutrals/Ninos of the past several years. So it also depends on specific location in any given winter. The lack of cold last winter hurt us both, but it was just good enough for places a bit further N and W. You tend to generalize a bit too much.

[toolsheds]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Stuck in a meeting where my manager likes to hear himself talk. Pbp from me postponed until 18z i guess. The way this meeting is going, maybe not until 0z.  

I hate when work gets in the way...the nerve! :-)

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s also a fallacy to say “too much going on in the ns” and then say it’s not going to happen which is in effect saying we know what is going to happen in the ns. We don’t. Not at this time range.

Not exactly. You’re right wrt the timing. But that’s only part of the equation. Imo our bigger problem is the spacing. Conservation of energy laws say we do know simply by “how much is going on” that our odds are low. We need a more amplified solution. The more crap is flying around in the NS flow the less likely anything can amplify more.  So simply the fact there is so much going on is bad. It’s complicated. We don’t do complicated. Our winning snow setups are typically “keep it simple stupid”. That’s why our absolute best pattern possible is a split flow NAO block with cold in place. . NS is out of the way. Not all these stupid waves flyinh across to squads and flatten the SS waves. And a block to stop the resulting amplifications from cutting. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, toolsheds said:

I hate when work gets in the way...the nerve! :-)

I'm telling you man.  Like I said before, I have most of them trained to leave me alone when the models come out.  But you got these few knuckleheads over here.....

And my boss is on another level.  calling 4:30 pm meetings on Friday....letting us know about said meeting at 4pm...that Friday.