February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WinterWxLuvr]

I feel a storm coming. Not gonna tell ya where I feel it 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not even close to a Miller B. 

Yeah but ain't it still the same ol' late/sloppy phasing though?

[mattie g]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but ain't it still the same ol' late/sloppy phasing though?

That's not a feature of a Nina. It's just a timing thing. Causation does not equal correlation.

[LP08]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but ain't it still the same ol' late/sloppy phasing though?

That's a no blocking issue, not specifically just a nina issue.

[WinterWxLuvr]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some actually say and mean that…but for the most part 90% of storms end up hitting the general place they bullseye once inside 100 hours. There are some adjustments on the fringes but once we get to 100 hours the guidance has been really good the last few years. Seems between 150 to 100 hours is when the convergence on a close to reality solution happens. We’re in that zone now. And it’s trending better. Problem is that trend could end anytime and very soon I suspect we see guidance find something close to the final outcome and we still have a bit of work to do. 
 

We haven’t had much luck getting the SS to time up with the NS lately. Our best chances came when the NS simply dug enough to get it done itself. 

The idea for the storm is well established. It all just happens to be a little late for us. That’s an adjustment that can pretty easily happen within 48.

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but ain't it still the same ol' late/sloppy phasing though?

But that isn’t what a Miller B (Nina) is. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

That's not a feature of a Nina. It's just a timing thing. Causation does not equal correlation.

100%

[WinterWxLuvr]

This has a chance y’all. I really believe that. We can’t miss every chance either. It’s the WDI

[Solution Man]

Any PBP, I know trackers in a mtg

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But that isn’t what a Miller B (Nina) is. 

So the Miller B, then...is just when it's all NS and transfers at our latitude then bombs out? Rather than a sloppy phase that comes together too late? (I know there was debate over the previous NE blizzard, lol)

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The idea for the storm is well established. It all just happens to be a little late for us. That’s an adjustment that can pretty easily happen within 48.

It could. But how often in the last 5 years have we said that. And how often did some adjustment happen in the last 48 hours that actually helped in a significant way?  The fringe areas will adjust of course. But it seems increasingly rare that we actually see major synoptic changes that move the core of a storm that much in the final 48 hours anymore.  I think if we are really in the game we will see major improvements in the next 24 hours. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This has a chance y’all. I really believe that. We can’t miss every chance either. It’s the WDI

Hey I do the WDI around here  My WDI says we are indeed due for a big one...but not sure if this month or next year...

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So the Miller B, then...is just when it's all NS and transfers at our latitude then bombs out? Rather than a sloppy phase that comes together too late? (I know there was debate over the previous NE blizzard, lol)

I believe that this is simply a miller A that bombs out too late for us. The current GFS and Icon have a low pressure off the coast south of NC. This is due to a SS and NS component that phases too late. This picture of the 6z GFS shows how it is a miller A due to the low off the coast and no miller B element. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So the Miller B, then...is just when it's all NS and transfers at our latitude then bombs out? Rather than a sloppy phase that comes together too late? (I know there was debate over the previous NE blizzard, lol)

Who cares lol. All the energy of interest originates in the NS- just go to h5 vorticity and hit play. It all enters from the N PAC and drops in on the east side of the amped ridge. What matters is the interplay between those waves.

[Amped]

Gfs is slower with the leading edge of the northern stream. Probably going west of 6z.

Edit: That didn't work out too well. Southern stream didn't cooperate.

[CAPE]

Y'all need to stop with the Miller ABCZ #^%@&!! 

 

[Yeoman]

9 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Any PBP, I know trackers in a mtg

Here's some php.. don't worry, my 5th grade niece was able to figure it out

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conusncep.php

[North Balti Zen]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Y'all need to stop with the Miller ABCZ #^%@&!! 

 

that means you @Maestrobjwa - cut it out

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Y'all need to stop with the Miller ABCZ #^%@&!! 

And trying to find an always-perfect correlation between a given hemispheric pattern and the weather in your backyards on a specific day and time.

[WxUSAF]

Through 108 I do not think this is the GFS run we wanted. Leaving more every back in TX (seems familiar) and northern stream isn’t digging as much. 

[stormtracker]

Debacle

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Through 108 I do not think this is the GFS run we wanted. Leaving more every back in TX (seems familiar) and northern stream isn’t digging as much. 

What's up with the snow on the 12z GFS across the region starting at hour 114? 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

that means you @Maestrobjwa - cut it out

I ain't start that, though @WinterWxLuvrbrought it up. I was talking more about the NS dominance messing stuff up. I see that there's more to it, though.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What's up with the snow on the 12z GFS across the region starting at hour 114? 

The northern stream not digging as much gives us a consolation prize. 

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey I do the WDI around here My WDI says we are indeed due for a big one...but not sure if this month or next year...

2 problems with this narrative. 1) big (let’s say a widespread 10”+) storms dont just happen because of time. They happen when the pattern supports. Yes there is a random typical mean frequency to them simply because by random chance the patterns that support them tend to happen maybe a dozen times a decade and odds say we hit on several of those chances and so normally we will get several of them every decade.  But if the pattern isn’t right they won’t happen just because it’s time. 
 

2) because of typical frequencies within the variance there will be random patterns but it’s like a coin toss. The odds of getting 10 heads in a row is extremely rare. But once you had 9 heads it doesn’t change the fact it’s still 50/50 what the outcome of the 10th flip will be. Once you get 9 heads your chance of 10 is now 50/50 regardless of how bad the chances were at the start. I’ve done that math before to show that the chances of getting a big snow or a big year are about the same (if you ignore the pattern) going into every year regardless of what the outcome the previous year was. The patterns are simply random due to typical frequencies within the chaos. 

[Grothar of Herndon]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Y'all need to stop with the Miller ABCZ #^%@&!! 

 

Agree! We have beat A or B to death  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

2 problems with this narrative. 1) big (let’s say a widespread 10”+) storms dont just happen because of time. They happen when the pattern supports. Yes there is a random typical mean frequency to them simply because by random chance the patterns that support them tend to happen maybe a dozen times a decade and odds say we hit on several of those chances and so normally we will get several of them every decade.  But if the pattern isn’t right they won’t happen just because it’s time. 
 

2) because of typical frequencies within the variance there will be random patterns but it’s like a coin toss. The odds of getting 10 heads in a row is extremely rare. But once you had 9 heads it doesn’t change the fact it’s still 50/50 what the outcome of the 10th flip will be. Once you get 9 heads your chance of 10 is now 50/50 regardless of how bad the chances were at the start. I’ve done that math before to show that the chances of getting a big snow or a big year are about the same (if you ignore the pattern) going into every year regardless of what the outcome reboots year was. The patterns are simply random due to typical frequencies within the chaos. 

Yeah but if it's a better pattern is it really the same odds? If you're in a pattern (i.e LA nina) that has more misses than hits, I'd argue your odds are better just by having less junk against ya. No guarantees...just better odds. Just like if you have a block your chances are better without one. So if ya have SS dominance your odds are better than NS...

[Maestrobjwa]

Man y'all ain't puttin' this on me...I ain't start the Miller B thing...I just said nina, lol

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man I ain't start the Miller B thing...I just said nina, lol

Ninas are northern stream dominant. There is either no stj, or it's weak/diffuse. Forget the Miller labels- nothing to do with ENSO really. You are conflating 2 different concepts. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but if it's a better pattern is it really the same odds? If you're in a pattern (i.e LA nina) that has more misses than hits, I'd argue your odds are better just by having less junk against ya. No guarantees...just better odds. Just like if you have a block your chances are better without one. So if ya have SS dominance your odds are better than NS...

Yea of course the pattern matters. My argument was irrespective of the pattern the time since our last snow is irrelevant