WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @WxUSAFI'm cautious af entertaining the bowl idea but I think it's finally going happen. We kept seeing it pop on ens but ops on fantasy land never really agreed. By the time the "carve" was supposed to happen it was a week away. This has been happening for at least 7-10 days on guidance from my rip and reads. Now we're seeing fantasy gfs constantly dropping the height hammer. If there's a big storm in our future, my guess is it won't happen until the big carve reaches its apex and starts retreating. An event like the Midwest is seeing this week would be the way. Pajamas backwards and stuff 56 minutes ago, LP08 said: @WxUSAF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The only way to get to the bottom of this is to start a thread at the beginning of each month to discuss how/when we are going to start monthly wx threads. I'm all about it. The more I can shit up the board with extraneous drivel, the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Perhaps we should start a thread on how to name and organize the threads. Anyway, not bad in the 10–14-day period. I like your plot better than mine; day 10-16 for the win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm all about it. The more I can shit up the board with extraneous drivel, the better. You got some STIFF competition my friend 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Euro does not even develop a storm at all, just some showery weather off the coast of South Carolina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Euro is a non event for everyone Sunday. No one on the East coast sees a flake at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: I don't know I just find it to be cleaner making a new thread for the new month, almost like a fresh start or something. So it’ll be cleaner because it’ll be cleaner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I think we should have one continuous med/long range thread and just let it grow until it becomes totally unmanageable. How are threads managed? Is there a filing system I was unaware of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Euro is a non event for everyone Sunday. No one on the East coast sees a flake at all. cant seem to catch a break. Snow is falling everywhere but on us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 It’s very easy to become focused on specific times and events. That’s not productive. Beyond 4 days you might as well just look at the overall setup. A storm (2-4”) can pop up literally out of nowhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s very easy to become focused on specific times and events. That’s not productive. Beyond 4 days you might as well just look at the overall setup. A storm (2-4”) can pop up literally out of nowhere. Do you think our next storm chance is going to be middle of next week? That should be about the time the energy that messes up the Sunday storm is ready to cross the U.S, or does that have no real chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Do you think our next storm chance is going to be middle of next week? That should be about the time the energy that messes up the Sunday storm is ready to cross the U.S, or does that have no real chance? I have not looked so I wouldn’t know. About three days out is all I want to look. More fun that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Not for nothing, this thread is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Do you think our next storm chance is going to be middle of next week? That should be about the time the energy that messes up the Sunday storm is ready to cross the U.S, or does that have no real chance? I think there's still a little window early next week (Mon-Tues) and today's Euro sort of hints at that. Issue for that seems to be the shortwaves just shear out as they move east and our airmass is getting pretty rotted by then. But after that, I think it's a snooze fest until at least next weekend. But Euro and GFS both today have a somewhat similar evolution D8-10 (Euro is a little slower) with the TPV moving through the Canadian Prairies and into Ontario/Quebec and that looks like it will start establishing a cold and hopefully stormy pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Not for nothing, this thread is broken. As are we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Continuing the "leaving the metro area" good vibes, I'm visiting family in upstate NY over prez day weekend. Hope you all get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I'm going to Vegas for a conference for a couple days in May. Guarantees that we get wedges on The Mall. I that OK for this thread or do we have to wait for the Second Week of May Medium-Range thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Hear me out....it's the 84 hour NAM, but 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hear me out....it's the 84 hour NAM, but We're awaiting the pbp with unfettered anticipation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The problem is this +EPO/+NAO.. you know I think this has significant meaning, and it will always trend warmer closer. It may be hard to pattern change back, we go pretty hard +PDO pattern (+PNA/-EPO) but WATCH FOR THE NAO TO EVEN IT OUT. keeping us on the borderline or above through...little chance of snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 this is about as good as it gets without -NAO blocking. 2 sigma ridge over British Columbia and split flow 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 31 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hear me out....it's the 84 hour NAM, but Hear me out … that sw hangs back a little we’re gonna get some possible phasing from the ns. It’s the 84 NAM, but 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 A little unscientific, but we have been reversing last year nicely, Watch for this time to possible trend warmer (+EPO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hear me out....it's the 84 hour NAM, but I just saw it and came over here to see if anyone said anything... this frame is not a bad look.... allowed the N wave to get out in front and give it some climb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck! said: A little unscientific, but we have been reversing last year nicely. Watch for this time to possible trend warmer (+EPO) Don’t forget -PNA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I just saw it and came over here to see if anyone said anything... this frame is not a bad look.... allowed the N wave to get out in front and give it some climb. Move that in your mind to central/western Arkansas and think about how your mental picture would change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t forget -PNA Again, unscientific but the reverse December-PNA and last February-PNA is pretty strong. In satellite era, extremes even out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS likely just said hell no to Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS likely just said hell no to Sunday It only has a minimal shot if that northern energy clears way outta the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: It only has a minimal shot if that northern energy clears way outta the way The sw the gfs is currently showing wouldn’t produce a storm if there was nothing in front of it for a 1000 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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