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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@WxUSAFI'm cautious af entertaining the bowl idea but I think it's finally going happen. We kept seeing it pop on ens but ops on fantasy land never really agreed. By the time the "carve" was supposed to happen it was a week away. This has been happening for at least 7-10 days on guidance from my rip and reads. 

Now we're seeing fantasy gfs constantly dropping the height hammer. If there's a big storm in our future, my guess is it won't happen until the big carve reaches its apex and starts retreating. An event like the Midwest is seeing this week would be the way. Pajamas backwards and stuff 

 

56 minutes ago, LP08 said:

giphy.gif

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s very easy to become focused on specific times and events. That’s not productive. Beyond 4 days you might as well just look at the overall setup. A storm (2-4”) can pop up literally out of nowhere.

Do you think our next storm chance is going to be middle of next week? That should be about the time the energy that messes up the Sunday storm is ready to cross the U.S, or does that have no real chance?

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4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Do you think our next storm chance is going to be middle of next week? That should be about the time the energy that messes up the Sunday storm is ready to cross the U.S, or does that have no real chance?

I have not looked so I wouldn’t know. About three days out is all I want to look. More fun that way

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18 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Do you think our next storm chance is going to be middle of next week? That should be about the time the energy that messes up the Sunday storm is ready to cross the U.S, or does that have no real chance?

I think there's still a little window early next week (Mon-Tues) and today's Euro sort of hints at that.  Issue for that seems to be the shortwaves just shear out as they move east and our airmass is getting pretty rotted by then.   But after that, I think it's a snooze fest until at least next weekend.  But Euro and GFS both today have a somewhat similar evolution D8-10 (Euro is a little slower) with the TPV moving through the Canadian Prairies and into Ontario/Quebec and that looks like it will start establishing a cold and hopefully stormy pattern.  

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The problem is this +EPO/+NAO.. you know I think this has significant meaning, and it will always trend warmer closer. 

8a.thumb.gif.e0f7d72cc1332321bdefc8defc1eeab1.gif

It may be hard to pattern change back, we go pretty hard +PDO pattern (+PNA/-EPO) but WATCH FOR THE NAO TO EVEN IT OUT. keeping us on the borderline or above through...little chance of snowstorm. 

8aa.thumb.gif.560f5d80f8493832f8e7068b458b5eef.gif

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I just saw it and came over here to see if anyone said anything... this frame is not a bad look.... allowed the N wave to get out in front and give it some climb. 

namconus_z500_vort_eus_53.png

Move that in your mind to central/western Arkansas and think about how your mental picture would change

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