Weather Will Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 WB OZ EURO has the Valentine’s storm again! Happy Monday!!’ 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 The 0z Euro had a more amplified western US ridge with a favorable axis, and thus more space to work with- and it got it done with a perfectly timed NS shortwave dropping down. GFS was not as amped with a broader ridge and the axis was further east, so not much room and any phase/partial phase happens too late. This has a chance, but an offshore low is probably (again) favored with this set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 3 hours ago, Deck Pic said: There isn't much margin for error with the cold air and precip basically arriving at the same time. It's an amusing scenario. 60 degrees Saturday evening and Sunday at noon, 20 and ripping snow. Model life. Pretty similar to Jan 3. 60 degrees the afternoon before, and snow by early morning with temps falling through the 20s during the day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 There isn't much margin for error with the cold air and precip basically arriving at the same time. It's an amusing scenario. 60 degrees Saturday evening and Sunday at noon, 20 and ripping snow. Model life. Pretty similar to Jan 3. 60 degrees the afternoon before, and snow by early morning with temps falling through the 20s during the day.I was coming here to say just that. Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: where are the rest of the 45 L's lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: where are the rest of the 45 L's lol The ensembles have not been too enthused. But hey we can just ignore that! Op runs will lead the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 7 hours ago, Deck Pic said: I will not allow it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: The ensembles have not been too enthused. But hey we can just ignore that! Op runs will lead the way. Yes of the 51 EURO ensemble members only one gives more snow than the operational; 46 give less than an inch at DCA the ensembles like the 18th a bit more but that is way out in fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 H5 improved for Sunday on GFS, but not much better at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: H5 improved for Sunday on GFS, but not much better at the surface. Far sharper trough but never goes negative, remains positive tilt the whole time, plenty of time for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: H5 improved for Sunday on GFS, but not much better at the surface. It’s a decent setup on the southern part…but damnit with the NS SWs flying across every 36 hours it’s hard to time anything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: with the NS SWs flying across every 36 hours it’s hard to time anything up. That's been the running theme this season, lol But I'm guessing that's normal in a nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 So we have potentials on the table for the 14th and 18th. Looks like the latter will likely have a better setup in place but both bear watching. Not a terrible spot to be as far as the euro is concerned for the Valentine’s Day threat. Definitely sucks to keep having to rely on the +PNA to be just right (position and strength) and hoping for an early negative trough tilt. Those timing systems typically end up getting together too late for our latitude (a la the blizzard a few weeks ago) but hey, maybe we get lucky with one or two of these. I’d certainly take a 3-6/4-8” type event out of a pattern like this. As PSU said, we need some luck, which we haven’t had much of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's been the running theme this season, lol But I'm guessing that's normal in a nina? Far too much progressive west to east action with an active NS is definitely niña’esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 3 hours ago, dallen7908 said: Yes of the 51 EURO ensemble members only one gives more snow than the operational; 46 give less than an inch at DCA the ensembles like the 18th a bit more but that is way out in fantasy land Now this I will allow. This 13/14th business. 14th would be better...I'd seriously fly back a day earlier if it's a foot or more. Don't think i have much to worry about. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 UK Met at 144 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 F*ck 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: F*ck You are fine, when has the Ukie not laid a dukie for a forecast post 100 hours 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Nevermind, nothing comes of it. Just saw the precip maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: UK Met at 144 this is the energy i need to motivate me to get new tires on my jeep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Nevermind, nothing comes of it. Just saw the precip maps. You get Ukie post-144 hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: You get Ukie post-144 hr? Indeed I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Indeed I do Ukie is great at global H5 anomalies and consistently shitty at east coast sensible weather prediction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Just reiterating what we already know: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Euro is a no-go late phase and huge to the right! Even upstream looks like it is a bad setup for anything to truly pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: H5 improved for Sunday on GFS, but not much better at the surface. it never is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Just reiterating what we already know: i dont think there is high uncertainty. I think there is pretty much certainty with this system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nevermind, nothing comes of it. Just saw the precip maps. how did the ukie fail to produce something from that setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Are we failing good again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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