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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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The 0z Euro had a more amplified western US ridge with a favorable axis, and thus more space to work with- and it got it done with a perfectly timed NS shortwave dropping down.

GFS was not as amped with a broader ridge and the axis was further east, so not much room and any phase/partial phase happens too late.

This has a chance, but an offshore low is probably (again) favored with this set up.

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3 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

There isn't much margin for error with the cold air and precip basically arriving at the same time.  It's an amusing scenario.  60 degrees Saturday evening and Sunday at noon, 20 and ripping snow.  Model life.

Pretty similar to Jan 3. 60 degrees the afternoon before, and snow by early morning with temps falling through the 20s during the day.

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There isn't much margin for error with the cold air and precip basically arriving at the same time.  It's an amusing scenario.  60 degrees Saturday evening and Sunday at noon, 20 and ripping snow.  Model life.
Pretty similar to Jan 3. 60 degrees the afternoon before, and snow by early morning with temps falling through the 20s during the day.
I was coming here to say just that.

Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk

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23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The ensembles have not been too enthused. But hey we can just ignore that! Op runs will lead the way. :weenie:

Yes of the 51 EURO ensemble members only one gives more snow than the operational; 46 give less than an inch at DCA

the ensembles like the 18th a bit more but that is way out in fantasy land

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So we have potentials on the table for the 14th and 18th. Looks like the latter will likely have a better setup in place but both bear watching. Not a terrible spot to be as far as the euro is concerned for the Valentine’s Day threat. Definitely sucks to keep having to rely on the +PNA to be just right (position and strength) and hoping for an early negative trough tilt. Those timing systems typically end up getting together too late for our latitude (a la the blizzard a few weeks ago) but hey, maybe we get lucky with one or two of these. I’d certainly take a 3-6/4-8” type event out of a pattern like this. As PSU said, we need some luck, which we haven’t had much of this winter. 

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3 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

Yes of the 51 EURO ensemble members only one gives more snow than the operational; 46 give less than an inch at DCA

the ensembles like the 18th a bit more but that is way out in fantasy land

Now this I will allow.  This 13/14th business.   14th would be better...I'd seriously fly back a day earlier if it's a foot or more.  Don't think i have much to worry about. :yikes:

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