February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[IUsedToHateCold]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I quickly scanned through the members focusing on the 14-15th window- there are 3-4 members(out of 50) on the 0z EPS that have low pressure to our SE and tucked close to the coast- healthy storms that produce some significant snow for our region. The majority are offshore or all NS. Overall theme is progressive/offshore/late.

Ya man winter is being put in the coffin now

I know someone who can offer you a deal on a coffin @WxWatcher007

Seriously though, it's Feb 6th. I've seen 6 inches of snow as late as like March 20th. At least 42 days of winter remain. 

[osfan24]

57 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I quickly scanned through the members focusing on the 14-15th window- there are 3-4 members(out of 50) on the 0z EPS that have low pressure to our SE and tucked close to the coast- healthy storms that produce some significant snow for our region. The majority are offshore or all NS. Overall theme is progressive/offshore/late.

It's almost like there is a theme of late.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I quickly scanned through the members focusing on the 14-15th window- there are 3-4 members(out of 50) on the 0z EPS that have low pressure to our SE and tucked close to the coast- healthy storms that produce some significant snow for our region. The majority are offshore or all NS. Overall theme is progressive/offshore/late.

That has been the theme all year under La Ninia why should it change now.  We have had a progressive flow with limited blocking and every once in a while, the PNA throws us a bone so that the development is just close enough to the coast.  I really don't see the progressive pattern changing going forward.  We are at the hands of the PNA out west.  I am not saying it cannot snow just need a coastal runner with the correct timing.  I do not think winter is quite over yet. 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

That has been the theme all year under La Ninia why should it change now.  We have had a progressive flow with limited blocking and every once in a while, the PNA throws us a bone so that the development is just close enough to the coast.  I really don't see the progressive pattern changing going forward.  We are at the hands of the PNA out west.  I am not saying it cannot snow just need a coastal runner with the correct timing.  I do not think winter is quite over yet. 

I doubt it is "over", but our chances going forward will likely be similar to what we have already experienced, any of which will require plenty of timing to work out. A legit block does not look to be in the cards, so we continue to go with the (progressive) flow.

[CAPE]

49 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Hopefully not. 8" season for my first season on Parrs Ridge and 20+ where I came from in AA County wouldn't be acceptable lol

Just under 20" here, and had snow otg for 15+ days between between Jan 3 and Feb 3.

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just under 20" here, and had snow otg for 15+ days between between Jan 3 and Feb 3.

The southern and eastern mid Atlantic cashed in on a few waves and in places where avg snowfall is only 15-20” that’s all it takes. Anywhere north west of there all the way to Canada is having an incredibly dry snowless winter.  Even the ski resorts in new england. It’s been cold so the conditions are ok but sugarbush averages 275” and is only on 85 right now. Some are doing even worse. I’m starting to get really worried about spring skiing. My favorite time is March and April but unless they get about 100”+ in the next might there won’t be any spring skiing. The pathetic base they have now wouldn’t last the first 3 day 50+ thaw or one good rainstorm. 

[BlizzardNole]

I can't believe how bad my area (near Germantown) got blown out by my family's area in northern and central Calvert.  Man they got 12-15 on Jan 3 and another good one last weekend.  If we don't get another chance this will be three straight winters without a significant snow.

[IronTy]

Just now, BlizzardNole said:

I can't believe how bad my area (near Germantown) got blown out by my family's area in northern and central Calvert.  Man they got 12-15 on Jan 3 and another good one last weekend.  If we don't get another chance this will be three straight winters without a significant snow.

Yeah we got jackpotted early on which is always nice.  According to NOAA I got 15" on that storm.  That's why you won't see me complaining for the rest of this winter.   I even see a little bit of green on my petunias....

[gopper]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Yeah we got jackpotted early on which is always nice.  According to NOAA I got 15" on that storm.  That's why you won't see me complaining for the rest of this winter.   I even see a little bit of green on my petunias....

Hardiest petunias ever!!!!

[DeeDeeHCue]

So when do we think we will see a really strong snow (foot or more) again in Baltimore? 2023? This decade? 
 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Yeah we got jackpotted early on which is always nice.  According to NOAA I got 15" on that storm.  That's why you won't see me complaining for the rest of this winter.   I even see a little bit of green on my petunias....

No complaints here either, but it would be nice to get lucky another time or 2. Haven't sniffed 30" since the winters of 2014 and 15.

[midatlanticweather]

Only 9.7 inches total here in Purcellville. That is a meager amount! We can usually nickel and dime our way to 15 inches or so by now. Pretty bad year.

[Snowfan96]

After reviewing the teleconnections and ensembles, it looks like a warm 2nd half of February - at least that's what the overwhelming evidence suggests. It very well could have been that the Northeast blizzard last weekend was the real turning point in the pattern.

[IronTy]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

No complaints here either, but it would be nice to get lucky another time or 2. Haven't sniffed 30" since the winters of 2014 and 15.

Now to be clear....it's not possible to ever truly be happy with the snow you get.  Even in 09-10 I wanted more.  But come march I want warm weather.  My pepper plants are 2" tall already.  

[North Balti Zen]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Hopefully not. 8" season for my first season on Parrs Ridge and 20+ where I came from in AA County wouldn't be acceptable lol

But you have to admit, kinda hilarious. We should have consulted each other before we BOTH moved north for more snow...

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

But you have to admit, kinda hilarious. We should have consulted each other before we BOTH moved north for more snow...

You haven’t missed much from your previous location. 

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, Snowfan96 said:

After reviewing the teleconnections and ensembles, it looks like a warm 2nd half of February - at least that's what the overwhelming evidence suggests. It very well could have been that the Northeast blizzard last weekend was the real turning point in the pattern.

Yeah, I'm really surprised at some of the optimism in here given the AO and NAO. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, I'm really surprised at some of the optimism in here given the AO and NAO. 

Mjo most likely 

[WinterWxLuvr]

18 is a pretty big number to click on. Isn’t it time for a new thread?

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You haven’t missed much from your previous location. 

the 1/3 thing really stung - you def did better there. Literally, .2 here. Not even half an inch. Hilarious in hindsight. 

[Bob Chill]

46 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, I'm really surprised at some of the optimism in here given the AO and NAO. 

Yeah, but not a single person here is surprised at your complete lack of optimism 24/7/365. Somebody has to make up for all that bad energy or it really will never snow again 

[RevWarReenactor]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yeah, but not a single person here is surprised at your complete lack of optimism 24/7/365. Somebody has to make up for all that bad energy or it really will never snow again 

Is it lack of optimism or just what climo dictates? Honestly I am surprised we've even stayed in an okay pattern this long. No SE ridge or torch most of January? Like how rare is that?

[87storms]

regardless of what happens from here, i'm starting to feel my yearly mindset transition from "it's winter, so we should have frozen lakes" to "if it's not gonna snow, let it be mild".  the upcoming forecast is a "game on" to me, though as always in february i'm game for a storm...i'll still be tracking.

[osfan24]

29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yeah, but not a single person here is surprised at your complete lack of optimism 24/7/365. Somebody has to make up for all that bad energy or it really will never snow again 

It's not a matter of lack of optimism. It's being realistic. Could we fluke into a snow? Sure, that can happen almost anytime. But it's pretty clear things are not going our way since the first half of January and the pattern only looks worse here on out. Again, AO and NAO have really never been on our side. Without that, it's just chasing ghosts.

[Weather Will]

GEFS and GEPS still show a chance for President’s Day weekend timeframe…not much going on before then looking at their ensembles.  No point staying up late this week looking at model runs; And on the bright side get to keep my birthday dinner reservation this week!!!

[Snowmadness]

 

(Speaking from Richmond) For last two winters,  the NAO has never gone negative for more then a day or two the  entire winter. It is frequently negative rest of the months but  for some reason,  from early December  to Mid March it is always strongly positive for slightly above neutral.  Zero Blocking.  This winter is especially bad.  Guessing La Nina has  a lot to do with it.  I really don’t understand the science behind what drives the patterns other then how the indexes show favorable or unfavorable patterns.  Now,  the only  favorable index this winter, the PNA is forecasted  to go negative and MJO entering warmer phases. Maybe  we may get lucky mid March if pattern can flip back, -NAO blocking and MJO can cycle back around to 8-1.  Until then, it  seems we  need  absolute perfection and timing of cold fronts and  low positions  to give us a good winter storm.   Super low odds with all the vortexes flying around.  I think we have had like 6 inches (RVA)  total between all the storms.  North, South,  East and West of us have a foot plus. Sorry to rant. Just  a frustrating winter for us.  If this happens again next winter, I will seriously storm chase the next big snow even if I have to fly to Maine or Canada….lol …Sorry to rant.  

 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Is it lack of optimism or just what climo dictates? Honestly I am surprised we've even stayed in an okay pattern this long. No SE ridge or torch most of January? Like how rare is that?

 

43 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's not a matter of lack of optimism. It's being realistic. Could we fluke into a snow? Sure, that can happen almost anytime. But it's pretty clear things are not going our way since the first half of January and the pattern only looks worse here on out. Again, AO and NAO have really never been on our side. Without that, it's just chasing ghosts.

Well, I've never seen either of you make an optimistic post about anything really. It's all doom and gloom. Or at least some sort of pessimistic connotation. I'm sure there are inspirational nuggets randomly hidden in the mix but you can't hide from a post history. When 90% are negative and pessimistic about everything, I'll call a spade a spade. Some people are glass half full and some are half empty. Me personally, I'm a 3/4 full kind of person about everything I do. Perception is reality. We all choose our own 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Snowmadness said:

 

 

(Speaking from Richmond) For last two winters,  the NAO has never gone negative for more then a day or two the  entire winter. It is frequently negative rest of the months but  for some reason,  from early December  to Mid March it is always strongly positive for slightly above neutral.  Zero Blocking.  This winter is especially bad.  Guessing La Nina has  a lot to do with it.  I really don’t understand the science behind what drives the patterns other then how the indexes show favorable or unfavorable patterns.  Now,  the only  favorable index this winter, the PNA is forecasted  to go negative and MJO entering warmer phases. Maybe  we may get lucky mid March if pattern can flip back, -NAO blocking and MJO can cycle back around to 8-1.  Until then, it  seems we  need  absolute perfection and timing of cold fronts and  low positions  to give us a good winter storm.   Super low odds with all the vortexes flying around.  I think we have had like 6 inches (RVA)  total between all the storms.  North, South,  East and West of us have a foot plus. Sorry to rant. Just  a frustrating winter for us.  If this happens again next winter, I will seriously storm chase the next big snow even if I have to fly to Maine or Canada….lol …Sorry to rant.  

 

We actually had a -AO/-NAO for a good part of last winter, if I'm not mistaken. Just not enough cold air (and the tpv splitting into an unfortunate position).

[Steve25]

3 hours ago, DeeDeeHCue said:

So when do we think we will see a really strong snow (foot or more) again in Baltimore? 2023? This decade? 
 

If we're being completely fair, we have stayed on our 5-7 year average for foot+ storms in Baltimore. Next winter will be 7 years since the last one, so we're not overdue at all. We're pretty much on pace. 

Its the 5-11 inch, moderate type of snow events that have come close to disappearing in recent history. 

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

GEFS and GEPS still show a chance for President’s Day weekend timeframe…not much gong on before then looking at their ensembles.  No point staying up late this week looking at model runs; And on the bright side get to keep my birthday dinner reservation this week!!!

I always like a pattern change window better for a storm than the middle of one...I'm more interested in that period (but of course we're still a good 6-7 days away from even considering it, lol)