WEATHER53 Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Not really any chance for anything for a while here. This is really bad. +NAO/+EPO moving in tomorrow overperforms, then we flirt with 60s down the road it looks like. You cancelled cold temps on 1/3. Look what followed. 4 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: Be careful. They play an important role in NWP. At this juncture they are indicating that you may be disappointed if you expect the depiction on the latest op runs to be the correct outcome. And given what we saw last month, nobody should take a Day 10 depiction verbatim. You mentioned the chaos with all the waves...that's also been a running theme. Seems like what ya get out of that more often is sloppy or late phasing (and how many times did we yell at this wave or that wave to stop interfering? Lol). When doubt, go with the season's trend until it does something different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 28 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Not really any chance for anything for a while here. This is really bad. +NAO/+EPO moving in tomorrow overperforms, then we flirt with 60s down the road it looks like. There won’t be any 60’s with that look. Still waiting on the -PNA you promised us about 3 weeks ago too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: Anybody got supper Euro? Not much to note. Looking at the EPS, the Monday night deal looks like light rain/drizzle/maybe fr drizzle? along the coast. Beyond that enjoy a week of partly to mostly sunny with temps in the mid to upper 40s. Maybe we get colder next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 29 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: No chance of snow until March 1 probably.. 2SD +NAO here That's the same as it's looked since early January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Looking at the latest GEFS extended looks like we have until President’s Day weekend and then the trough shifts to the West coast. If early the following week does not work according to the Ops, GEFS does show another chance Presidents Day weekend before the pattern shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Ensembles have been garbage this year anyway. This might be the first time all winter we've had every major OP model have a winter storm at this range. What could go wrong?! Ha. The best ensembles for the OP has been the other OPs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 34 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: You cancelled cold temps on 1/3. Looked what followed. We haven't had a +NAO in a while.. it might overperform 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Maybe after saying the pattern was going to break down for the last month they are finally going to be right. I am not saying they wont be. I don't know. The pattern does have to break eventually. BUT...why do the same people that say it means nothing and deb when the super long range guidance says cold is coming...suddenly believe it totally when those same models say warm is coming??? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 While we wait for the 0Z GFS, the MJO looks to be in a favorable phase 2 to 3 for the next 2 weeks before going into warm phase 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: While we wait for the 0Z GFS, the MJO looks to be in a favorable phase 2 to 3 for the next 2 weeks before going into warm phase 4. If we can stall 4/5 a bit...the later we get in winter/spring the more they become ambiguous and not necessarily warm phases anymore. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe after saying the pattern was going to break down for the last month they are finally going to be right. I am not saying they wont be. I don't know. The pattern does have to break eventually. BUT...why do the same people that say it means nothing and deb when the super long range guidance says cold is coming...suddenly believe it totally when those same models say warm is coming??? I don't discount long range cold totally, but I do tend to put more credence in long range warm. I think this is rational as it us my understanding that the models have a known cold bias in the medium to long range, so if they are showing a warm signal, then I think it is more likely that there is a strong feature which is overcoming their bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we can stall 4/5 a bit...the later we get in winter/spring the more they become ambiguous and not necessarily warm phases anymore. Not to mention that MJO forecasts are very sketchy many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not to mention that MJO forecasts are very sketchy many times. Yes they are...one lesson I learned from the 2018-19 season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 I don’t think this will be a good run. Western ridge not as strong and eastern trough more progressive. Some one tell me I’m wrong… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I don’t think this will be a good run. Western ridge not as strong and eastern trough more progressive. Some one tell me I’m wrong… There isn't a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 WB GFS comparison to 18Z says it all…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GFS comparison to 18Z says it all…. Good sir remember how much runs that far out change. It's useless to get hung up on every one that far out. All you can look are the larger scale, pattern features...Not that all us fully understand those things, lol And sure it's easier to look at the precip maps--but nevertheless these computers are gonna jump around with "details" (it's so scattershot you can barely call it that) even more at this range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Agreed that deterministic runs can’t be relied on at Day 8 for exact details but this run basically takes the storm off the map….by replacing the western ridge/ Eastern trough with a pacific zonal flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 A bit wide right this run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 whew.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 3 hours ago, Amped said: That's the same as it's looked since early January Yeah, we had some good -NAOs build early in the season but it didn't last. I was noticing how 22 straight -NAO's, the mean for them was a + departure anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There won’t be any 60’s with that look. Still waiting on the -PNA you promised us about 3 weeks ago too. -PNA might not build as strong, but I'm excited for a good, healthy +NAO.. can't see it happening now with +PNA after 2 straight. maybe the whole modeled pattern will be wrong, or main indexes change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Euro still has a signal and that’s all we could ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Looking at the 0Z EPS there are a few members showing a storm for the 14th and again around the 19th. Hopefully one of these periods will trend favorably over the upcoming week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 If you know, you know … 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 I quickly scanned through the members focusing on the 14-15th window- there are 3-4 members(out of 50) on the 0z EPS that have low pressure to our SE and tucked close to the coast- healthy storms that produce some significant snow for our region. The majority are offshore or all NS. Overall theme is progressive/offshore/late. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If you know, you know … It’s “The Moops”, Bubble Boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 I quickly scanned through the members focusing on the 14-15th window- there are 3-4 members(out of 50) on the 0z EPS that have low pressure to our SE and tucked close to the coast- healthy storms that produce some significant snow for our region. The majority are offshore or all NS. Overall theme is progressive/offshore/late.Ya man winter is being put in the coffin now 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 46 minutes ago, CAPE said: I quickly scanned through the members focusing on the 14-15th window- there are 3-4 members(out of 50) on the 0z EPS that have low pressure to our SE and tucked close to the coast- healthy storms that produce some significant snow for our region. The majority are offshore or all NS. Overall theme is progressive/offshore/late. Ya man winter is being put in the coffin now Hopefully not. 8" season for my first season on Parrs Ridge and 20+ where I came from in AA County wouldn't be acceptable lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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