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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My perfect storm. Gives us 10-20” then obliterates the ski resort I’m going to right after it with 40”. 
ETA: my 10 hour drive to sugarloaf would have 20”+ otg the whole way lol. 

I’m a SE poster but will be going to Snowshoe next Friday-Weds …. So I will be lurking up here With y’all all week let’s bring it home! I’ve had 6” This year, and 12” two times in my life …. I’m 30, So obviously this would be the coolest weather related thing to me. Anyway, carry on lmao 

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8 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

I’m a SE poster but will be going to Snowshoe next Friday-Weds …. So I will be lurking up here With y’all all week let’s bring it home! I’ve had 6” This year, and 12” two times in my life …. I’m 30, So obviously this would be the coolest weather related thing to me. Anyway, carry on lmao 

Have fun at the Shoe

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yet the eps, gefs, and geps have hardly a reflection at the surface during the same time. Don't ever recall all 3 ops honking at this range out with basically little to no ens support at all. Mind blown. :nerdsmiley:

This range? As in D10? Isn't that kinda par for the course this far out? Lol (It's almost fantasy range, really)

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2 hours ago, PantherJustin said:

I’m a SE poster but will be going to Snowshoe next Friday-Weds …. So I will be lurking up here With y’all all week let’s bring it home! I’ve had 6” This year, and 12” two times in my life …. I’m 30, So obviously this would be the coolest weather related thing to me. Anyway, carry on lmao 

I’ll be at snowshoe with my kids next weekend. 

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59 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yet the eps, gefs, and geps have hardly a reflection at the surface during the same time. Don't ever recall all 3 ops honking at this range out with basically little to no ens support at all. Mind blown. :nerdsmiley:

The advertised pattern is highly chaotic with energy riding over an amplifying western US ridge and interacting with additional energy associated with the TPV, then there is also energy undercutting the western ridge and taking the southern route. The op runs are (frequently) phasing energy dropping down from the NS with existing energy further south, while the ensemble runs largely have less interaction or suggest a much later phase. The difference in resolution probably plays a big part in the disparate projected outcomes, especially at this range. In simple terms, we just cant know yet.

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2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

Looks like it starts wrapping up, then kind of loses it and goes back positive after a brief negative. I mean.. something is there across models now! Something to watch again!

 

 

Looks like the bottom energy goes neutral  tilt while the second piece of energy dives in behind it at a positive tilt and then phases with the first thing turning the whole system positive tilt. I think that’s what happens at least if anyone smarter than me wants to correct me please do.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The advertised pattern is highly chaotic with energy riding over an amplifying western US ridge and interacting with additional energy associated with the TPV, then there is also energy undercutting the western ridge and taking the southern route. The op runs are (frequently) phasing energy dropping down from the NS with existing energy further south, while the ensemble runs largely have less interaction or suggest a much later phase. The difference in resolution probably plays a big part in the disparate projected outcomes, especially at this range. In simple terms, we just cant know yet.

I'll use the 18z GFS vs 18z GEFS to illustrate-

Phase underway here..

1644742800-COCEW8Ep1V8.png

Not happening on the ens mean..

1644742800-tf8ZEdB0iII.png

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17 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Ensembles have been garbage this year anyway. This might be the first time all winter we've had every major OP model have a winter storm at this range. What could go wrong?! Ha. 

Be careful. They play an important role in NWP. At this juncture they are indicating that you may be disappointed if you expect the depiction on the latest op runs to be the correct outcome. 

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