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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Not our winter so far for sure. Maybe March will deliver. :)

By then I don’t care. I honestly only love the winter weather when there’s snow and enough cold to keep it. Not much for storms where the snow is gone in a day or two. We still have about a month for that.

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you're talking exclusively about 20"+ HECS storms, then yes the window for those closes around Feb 15th on the coastal plain.  But those are extremely rare, like 1-2 per decade rare anyways.  The odds we were going to get one of those in a nina was VERY VERY low anyways.  But if we are just talking about a snowstorm, even a really significant 10" storm, the odds go down after Feb 15 but its not a cliff its a slow gradual decline until you get to late march where the door finally closes.  The metro areas have had plenty of significant snowfalls in late Feb and March.  Just off the top of my head there was a 8-12" late Feb storm in 1966.  A 10-15" storm in late Feb 1987.  I can't remember exactly what years but I know there were big storms (like 10"+) in both the late 1920s and late 1940's in late Feb.  March 93, there was a pretty big storm in DC in March 99, A 6-12" storm in March 2009, a very big storm, I think 10-15" across the area in March 1960.  I know there was a 8-10" march storm in 1976 and a big storm in March 62.  I think there was a big march snowstorm in the 1940's also.  Those are just BIG MECS 10" plus storms...there were countless 5-8" type snowstorms in late Feb and early March.  The list isnt that much shorter than a similar list for early Feb or some random period in January even.  Yes it lacks 20" plus HECS storms...but you made it sound like snow suddenly becomes harder after Feb 15th. 

This is very true. While Pres. Day might be about the time limit for a big HECS event, there have been several solid moderate events in late Feb through mid-March or so. More recently off the top of my head (and giving the amount I recorded at my location)... 

Feb 27-28, 2003...~5"

Feb 25, 2007...5-6"

March 3, 2009...6"

March 25, 2013...4"

March 2-3, 2014...5-6"

March 17, 2014...8"

March 25, 2014...3"

Feb 20, 2015...6" (unusual cold at the start, later turned to sleet and drizzle) 

March 5, 2015...6-7"

March 20, 2018...~5"

May have missed some but those are the ones I most recall. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Nothing is translating to the surface. We are running out of time this winter

 

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Gets. precip right along dc se border. before it heads out to sea Not sure if 18z did

Still looks like positively tilted bag of d

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14 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Hopefully OC can score again before the last blizzard melts ^ lol

Nothing else to track in the near term. Pretty low probability this becomes anything significant, but still some uncertainty as the ens means have generally been further west of recent op runs. Best case scenario is probably a coating to an inch in places if precip can fall for a few hours with some intensity, and overcome the warmish low levels. It would occur mostly overnight, which gives it a better chance.

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That northern stream energy dropping down has been digging further west on recent runs, helping to turn the flow a bit more NE out in front. The coastal low develops out in front of the elongated ribbon of vorticity, underneath a developing strong upper jet. The ultimate phase is going to happen too late, but trends suggest a glancing blow is possible. Light precip probably won't get it done. Need some rates to overcome the marginal low level temps.

1644289200-HQtnKZLR3z8.png

 

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18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

That western ridge at hour 180 on the Gfs is pretty nuts .

Almost textbook +PNA with EPO ridging up top. Definitely a window next weekend with those looks and stj energy moving thru. Maybe the trough can sharpen this go 'round instead of being just a broad trough as has been the case with some recent storms.

gfs_z500a_namer_32.thumb.png.4f59b514c2c4a3e72561f8326bd75983.png

^^slightest ridge over Greenland, looks to be waning tho.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

After the Tuesday offshore storm gets out of the wave I think we could be tracking the follow up energy for a clipper or possible light event a couple days later. Fast flow stuff pops up inside 96 to 72 hours :weenie:

The op is cold and stormy moving thru mid month...borderline weenie run with chances. Awaiting the GEFS fwiw.

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1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

The NAM's want nothing to do with the Tuesday thing. Not really in their wheelhouse anyways. If they even have one. But the precip is just so light that we would have no chance anyways with the temps being advertised. 

12z GFS/GEFS is further east than 6z. Probably just some light rain/snow showers as it stands now.

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17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The op is cold and stormy moving thru mid month...borderline weenie run with chances. Awaiting the GEFS fwiw.

Weenie run? Lol. :lol:

It does show possibilities. Also shows the same issue we've had with systems developing to far offshore.

Let's hope we can time something up.

gfs_asnow_us_58.png

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54 minutes ago, Hawk said:

DT a week ago said February would be cold all the way through.  That guy is a pure model hugger. Teleconnections are just forecasts too.  How did that -NAO forecast all work out DT?

In fairness, he said it (that hard core winter cold being over for the winter after the potential event Feb 14, 15) was not his forecast, but it was what the models were showing, and he tended to agree with them.

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