Solution Man Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Hmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 We are due something trending in the right direction inside 4 days…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Closer but the air mass is pretty shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: Remember December? Dec we were chasing cold air. Snowstorms wasnt even a thought Until I spotted the light at the end of the crapola pattern tunnel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Closer but the air mass is pretty shit. Timing certainly can't hurt at least.. would be somewhat uncharacteristic to go this far into the winter without an elevation dependent forum divider, but that's just my hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Just now, Cobalt said: Timing certainly can't hurt at least.. would be somewhat uncharacteristic to go this far into the winter without an elevation dependent forum divider, but that's just my hunch. Might go that way with a bit more amplification. As it stands 925 mb down to the surface is just a tad too warm. Decent rates and dynamic cooling could possibly overcome that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 18z EPS a tad better than 12z, and surface is a bit colder than the op. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Ji said: I don't think ive seen a worse pattern for snowstorm You absolutely have. Just stop! It was yesterday. The week before. The week before. Last winter. The year before that. Etc etc. Now I’m about to hit back to EasternWX. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 56 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Remember December? Dec we were chasing cold air. Snowstorms wasnt even a thought Ah so you'd rather have it be winter of 2019-20 again? C'mon brother...we all know better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 This sub is gonna get a big snowstorm. Keep right on checkin out those models. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 18z EPS a tad better than 12z, and surface is a bit colder than the op. TRGAS is gonna happen. I’m claiming it. Start a thread @WinterWxLuvr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: TRGAS is gonna happen. I’m claiming it. Start a thread @WinterWxLuvr I’ll do better than start a thread lol. We miss another one to the east, I’m retiring until next winter haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: TRGAS is gonna happen. I’m claiming it. Start a thread @WinterWxLuvr TRGAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: TRGAS? The royal GFS allows snow 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Forgive me but catastorphe is frickin' hilarious and should be a coined term here, lol Done. Catastorphe teh yourslef TRGAS (The Royal GFS Allows Snow) stormtracker just coined it Aleet (how could I ever forget that one?!) anyone care to add others we've coined in here over the years? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, Jebman said: Done. Catastorphe teh yourslef TRGAS (The Royal GFS Allows Snow) stormtracker just coined it anyone care to add others we've coined in here over the years? Aleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 6 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: The wurst kind....braunschweiger!!! The Wurst of PDQ Bach! @Maestrobjwamight appreciate the reference! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll do better than start a thread lol. We miss another one to the east, I’m retiring until next winter haha. Not our winter so far for sure. Maybe March will deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: TRGAS? The Randy Going Away Storm. It's trademarked. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 So I gather it will be kinda dull in here for awhile until something halfway trackable shows up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: The Wurst of PDQ Bach! @Maestrobjwamight appreciate the reference! Hahaha PDQ! Bach's long lost son Another master of musical comedy! He's been this generation's Victor Borge, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hahaha PDQ! Bach's long lost son Another master of musical comedy! He's been this generation's Victor Borge, lol Haha! Yeah and Peter Schickele, of the "University of Southern North Dakota"! ETA... My parents sure twisted my mind by occasionally playing records (yes RECORDS!) of PDQ Bach shows! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 So the 0z GFS looks better vs 18z at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: So I gather it will be kinda dull in here for awhile until something halfway trackable shows up! My money is on PD weekend tracking next weekend...for better or worse, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Haha! Yeah and Peter Schickele, of the "University of Southern North Dakota"! ETA... My parents sure twisted my mind by occasionally playing records (yes RECORDS!) of PDQ Bach shows! Wow Like...how long has he been around? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Gets. precip right along dc se border. before it heads out to sea Not sure if 18z did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Gets. precip right along dc se border. before it heads out to sea Not sure if 18z did I don't believe it did at 18Z offhand (but too lazy to go back and verify)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: I don't believe it did offhand (but to lazy to go back and verify)... correct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Trend at h5 actually looks pretty good dare I say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah but so many times though...that's a lot of random. Like 80 years and ya may have 3 big snows in the metro (and maybe a couple of 5 inchers) after PD weekend. And really...isn't the causation just...climo? March sun angle, lower elevation, etc? If you're talking exclusively about 20"+ HECS storms, then yes the window for those closes around Feb 15th on the coastal plain. But those are extremely rare, like 1-2 per decade rare anyways. The odds we were going to get one of those in a nina was VERY VERY low anyways. But if we are just talking about a snowstorm, even a really significant 10" storm, the odds go down after Feb 15 but its not a cliff its a slow gradual decline until you get to late march where the door finally closes. The metro areas have had plenty of significant snowfalls in late Feb and March. Just off the top of my head there was a 8-12" late Feb storm in 1966. A 10-15" storm in late Feb 1987. I can't remember exactly what years but I know there were big storms (like 10"+) in both the late 1920s and late 1940's in late Feb. March 93, there was a pretty big storm in DC in March 99, A 6-12" storm in March 2009, a very big storm, I think 10-15" across the area in March 1960. I know there was a 8-10" march storm in 1976 and a big storm in March 62. I think there was a big march snowstorm in the 1940's also. Those are just BIG MECS 10" plus storms...there were countless 5-8" type snowstorms in late Feb and early March. The list isnt that much shorter than a similar list for early Feb or some random period in January even. Yes it lacks 20" plus HECS storms...but you made it sound like snow suddenly becomes harder after Feb 15th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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