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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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Just now, Cobalt said:

Timing certainly can't hurt at least.. would be somewhat uncharacteristic to go this far into the winter without an elevation dependent forum divider, but that's just my hunch. 

Might go that way with a bit more amplification. As it stands 925 mb down to the surface is just a tad too warm. Decent rates and dynamic cooling could possibly overcome that.

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6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Forgive me but catastorphe is frickin' hilarious and should be a coined term here, lol

Done.

Catastorphe

teh

yourslef

TRGAS (The Royal GFS Allows Snow) stormtracker just coined it

Aleet (how could I ever forget that one?!)

anyone care to add others we've coined in here over the years?

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hahaha PDQ! Bach's long lost son :lol: Another master of musical comedy! He's been this generation's Victor Borge, lol

Haha! Yeah and Peter Schickele, of the "University of Southern North Dakota"! 

ETA... My parents sure twisted my mind by occasionally playing records (yes RECORDS!) of PDQ Bach shows! 

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4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but so many times though...that's a lot of random. Like 80 years and ya may have 3 big snows in the metro (and maybe a couple of 5 inchers) after PD weekend. And really...isn't the causation just...climo? March sun angle, lower elevation, etc?

If you're talking exclusively about 20"+ HECS storms, then yes the window for those closes around Feb 15th on the coastal plain.  But those are extremely rare, like 1-2 per decade rare anyways.  The odds we were going to get one of those in a nina was VERY VERY low anyways.  But if we are just talking about a snowstorm, even a really significant 10" storm, the odds go down after Feb 15 but its not a cliff its a slow gradual decline until you get to late march where the door finally closes.  The metro areas have had plenty of significant snowfalls in late Feb and March.  Just off the top of my head there was a 8-12" late Feb storm in 1966.  A 10-15" storm in late Feb 1987.  I can't remember exactly what years but I know there were big storms (like 10"+) in both the late 1920s and late 1940's in late Feb.  March 93, there was a pretty big storm in DC in March 99, A 6-12" storm in March 2009, a very big storm, I think 10-15" across the area in March 1960.  I know there was a 8-10" march storm in 1976 and a big storm in March 62.  I think there was a big march snowstorm in the 1940's also.  Those are just BIG MECS 10" plus storms...there were countless 5-8" type snowstorms in late Feb and early March.  The list isnt that much shorter than a similar list for early Feb or some random period in January even.  Yes it lacks 20" plus HECS storms...but you made it sound like snow suddenly becomes harder after Feb 15th. 

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