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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

weak front with developing SLP riding it?  I mean SLP forms down in NW NC and then runs NE... gets to 995mb just east of us and 980s into NE

Yeah, but very odd with all the precip on the back of the storm and almost none in the warm sector.  It's almost just like a surface reflection of the strong ULL.

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It's similar to yesterday's 18z.  And it's really weird. Not sure even what you'd call that?

I’ve seen that synoptic progression happen a few times. Not impossible. But it’s not something models will get right from range. And to work we need the secondary to pop southeast of us now right over us like the 12z Gfs.   

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, but very odd with all the precip on the back of the storm and almost none in the warm sector.  It's almost just like a surface reflection of the strong ULL.

The weird atypical presentation is because of the combo of the STJ wave out ahead of it and the stronger initial low along the front to the north. The stj wave is the focus of the deep tropical moisture and the low to the north prevents any closed circulation. The combo means no typical WAA precip to the northeast of the developing low until it eventually phases. 

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

That may be true, I definitely don’t chart it out.  Just hope the Valentines Day period pans out. Don’t want to rely on late  February/ March.

Hey we have one more historically more favorable weekend after that :lol: Not saying anything happens then, but in general...for us at the urban corridor elevation and lower, President’s Day tends to be that bookend for warning-level snows (always exceptions, of course). March can be a stat padder, however...might not get a flush hit (but maybe a slush hit), but we can still eek out an inch here or there. But overall yeah...don't wanna have to rely on that, lol

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11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Euro has almost no Southern Stream energy enter the country for the whole run, could someone who is smarter than me explain why that is?

Well, that would actually be more of what you'd expect in a nina (those are NS dominant) The active stj we've had has been a bit unusual for this enso...

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